Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro is an unmitigated dumpster fire. Of course day 10 always looks promising tho. all the euro ever says is no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 A couple days ago the op Gfs and euro took turns showing snow and everyone was whining the ensembles were meh with a low snow mean. Now the gefs and geps were the weeniest runs we’ve had in a LONG time and everyone’s whining about the op euro run. 9 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A couple days ago the op Gfs and euro took turns showed snow and everyone was whining the ensembles were meh with a low snow mean. Now the gefs and geps were the weeniest rune we’ve had in a LONG time and everyone’s whining about the op euro run. its not fun not seeing snow on the OP run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, Ji said: its not fun not seeing snow on the OP run But you don’t like 4-6” events. No need to be upset over something you don’t care about. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ji said: all the euro ever says is no You just got 2 snowstorms 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, RedSky said: 500 miles at 18z would be a start If you’re thinking you’re getting the Atlantic system to back into the coast, my recommendation is a rehab center. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A couple days ago the op Gfs and euro took turns showed snow and everyone was whining the ensembles were meh with a low snow mean. Now the gefs and geps were the weeniest rune we’ve had in a LONG time and everyone’s whining about the op euro run. Define whining please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12z eps keeps hope alive for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 12z eps keeps hope alive for this weekend When was the hope about to die? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12 inches of snow here on the season right outside DC in a winter where many of us were expecting a ‘97-98 redux. Enjoy it and let the angst go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: When did it die? Between Social Studies and Home Economics 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said: 12 inches of snow here on the season right outside DC in a winter where many of us were expecting a ‘97-98 redux. Enjoy it and let the angst go. NJWxGuy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: When was the hope about to die? You see, if the Op run shows crap the sky is falling, at least until the Ensembles show hope. Then we are snow town USA. At least until the next Op run. That is Standard Operating Procedure for most of us here lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Define whining please You were dismissing the day 10 threat on the op euro but that’s the wave the Gfs turned into the 40” storm Saturday and that is the threat with the best setup as it looks right now. People are just impatient. The best part of this pattern is that it isn’t one and done. It looks like a sustained long period of chances for something to amplify just right. We need that because our success rate is pretty low on any given discreet threat even in a good pattern. Every once in a while we get lucky like 2010 or 2014 and almost every possible storm hits. But other then those once a decade periods we usually need multiple threats in a good pattern to get a good storm. Think of the “good” patterns we’ve had since 2014. We wasted several threats in 2015 before that arctic front set off our run the second half of Feb but we had to watch New England get 80” before our run started! We wasted a few SWs in Jan 2016 before the storm. We wasted 3 in March 2018 before we got a storm. Last year was weird in that the longwave “pattern” was good but there was no cold available due to what happened in late December. But even had there been cold we wasted like 4 discreet threats before something finally amplified enough to cause a storm. Wasting threats is normal. It often takes 3-4 good discreet threats to get one actual snowstorm. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 is it against the law to post any euro maps here? please for us po folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You were dismissing the day 10 threat on the op euro but that’s the wave the Gfs turned into the 40” storm Saturday and that is the threat with the best setup as it looks right now. People are just impatient. The best part of this pattern is that it isn’t one and done. It looks like a sustained long period of chances for something to amplify just right. We need that because our success rate is pretty low on any given discreet threat even in a good pattern. Every once in a while we get lucky like 2010 or 2014 and almost every possible storm hits. But other then those once a decade periods we usually need multiple threats in a good pattern to get a good storm. Think of the “good” patterns we’ve had since 2014. We wasted several threats in 2015 before that arctic front set off our run the second half of Feb but we had to watch New England get 80” before our gun started! We wasted a few SWs in Jan 2016 before the storm. We wasted 3 in March 2018 before we got a storm. Last year was weird in that the longwave “pattern” was good but there was no cold available due to what happened in late December. But even had there been cold we wasted like 4 discreet threats before something finally amplified enough to cause a storm. Wasting threats is normal. It often takes 3-4 good discreet threats to get one actual snowstorm. So to summarize, we are playing the numbers game like salesmen. Make enough phone calls or get enough storms in a given pattern, one will eventually hit. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Not a bad mean. Some take it up the coast (obviously, see snow mean) but plenty of others have it being a bit of slider, see below. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: $100 it comes up the coast more as we go forward. I'll take this action 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, Yeoman said: NJWxGuy? No just a guy lurking on the boards for 20 years through Midwest and Northeast winters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 It could be a lot worse. Northern New England has had very little snow at all and the ski resorts up there depend on it and the coming pattern isn’t even necessarily good for them. Very likely significant snow is suppressed south of them as it often is mid winter except they should have put down a 3 foot base by now. Looks like another weekend coming up where WV is the better option than northern Vermont! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 EPS REALLY likes that threat around the 20th. That’s the one the Gfs turned into the BECS the other day. 10 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: EPS REALLY likes that threat around the 20th. That’s the one the Gfs turned into the BECS the other day. You got some maps for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12z EPS implies we get snow this weekend. Not everything can be a BECS. Would be an advisory type event. Not terrible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'll take this action 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It could be a lot worse. Northern New England has had very little snow at all and the ski resorts up there depend on it and the coming pattern isn’t even necessarily good for them. Very likely significant snow is suppressed south of them as it often is mid winter except they should have put down a 3 foot base by now. Looks like another weekend coming up where WV is the better option than northern Vermont! This is likely only true if you’re traveling any length of distance to get to VT. The ski season in WV has royally sucked with them barely able to remain open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Excellent eps run. I’d rather look at the whole window rather than a discreet event in a complicated flow at this range. 7 day temps 7 day mean qpf That looks pretty good to me. Pattern continues after this as well. 7 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Excellent eps run. I’d rather look at the whole window rather than a discreet event in a complicated flow at this range. 7 day temps 7 day mean qpf That looks pretty good to me. Pattern continues after this as well. Nice. Cold and wet in January usually equals snow around here, all caveats about timing and luck aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, snowfan said: This is likely only true if you’re traveling any length of distance to get to VT. The ski season in WV has royally sucked with them barely able to remain open. There was one week (granted it was the worst timing over Xmas) that was awful and a 60 degree rain wiped their snow out. But before that snowshoe and timberline were actually having an average typical December. Both had about 50% of their terrain open which is normal for Xmas. And both have already recovered back to 50% and will be well above that soon given the pattern. WV resorts are less dependent on natural snow and have snowmaking capability on 100% of the mtn. The northern New England resorts that avg 250-325”rely much more on natural snow. Additionally the pattern coming up might be better for WV than Stowe wrt natural snow. So you aren’t wrong that WV had a rough Xmas break period as well but I think all things considered they are lined up to have a better Jan compared to normal than northern New Eng might. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I know some people are interested in instant satisfaction with the coming pattern, but this is one where Mother Nature is loading her shotgun with buck shot and not a slug. There’s gonna be waves zipping through the pattern like cars on the Capital Beltway at 700pm on a Friday. It’s a pattern that will have the chance to yield both smaller events and big kahuna’s. There’s gonna be a monster in this setup for somewhere in the east. With so many distinct 5H vorts parading through the flow, that storm is unlikely to be captured at long leads. Take a break from model watching and browse every so often. It’s going to be headfake city until the N HEMI pattern is fully established in a week. I would be shocked if the Mid Atlantic came away with nothing, but even some small events can make the area feel wintry. 23 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I know some people are interested in instant satisfaction with the coming pattern, but this is one where Mother Nature is loading her shotgun with buck shot and not a slug. There’s gonna be waves zipping through the pattern like cars on the Capital Beltway at 700pm on a Friday. It’s a pattern that will have the chance to yield both smaller events and big kahuna’s. There’s gonna be a monster in this setup for somewhere in the east. With so many distinct 5H vorts parading through the flow, that storm is unlikely to be captured at long leads. Take a break from model watching and browse every so often. It’s going to be headfake city until the N HEMI pattern is fully established in a week. I would be shocked if the Mid Atlantic came away with nothing, but even some small events can make the area feel wintry. Before or during COVID? Because, depending on your answer, that could make me feel good or not so good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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