osfan24 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Euro looks similar to GFS so far. Big storm may be farther east than GFS, but it's about the same strength and lattitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Math is hard I was trying to make a Joke I will take p13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Euro looks like it's going to be a suppressed version of the Canadian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Euro looks like it's going to be a suppressed version of the Canadian. Narrator: It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just a tad squished off the southeast coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Well yeah, of course. But that's the key player in this whole mess. Get rid of that and the possibilities go from shut out to a much better outcome. Except that if you removed it completely the weekend threat likely cuts and we’re waiting until the early next week threat anyways! The setup is like a big pinwheel (not talking about the ocean storm I’m talking about the whole longwave pattern rotating SWs around the PV lobe in Canada. The “suppression” behind each wave in that cycle sets us up for the next. Even with a great pattern there isn’t some cut off Rex block to prevent a cutter. There is ridging in the HL but not a true block. That’s the one time we don’t have to worry about wave spacing. Otherwise even with a favorable longwave pattern too much spacing and something that amplifies a lot will likely cut. Im not saying that to say this pattern isn’t as good as a true blocking one. Sometimes we fail then too. Not enough stj and those can be frustratingly dry with NS miller b storms teasing and frustrating us. And we have gone on some epic tears in this kind of pattern before. Jan 1996 was actually a similar setup that worked. Not exactly but close. This was the pattern Jan 1-5 that set that in motion. Notice the un Nina like north pac trough similar to now with the epo/pna ridge. Note though there is no canonical Rex NAO block like 2010. There was a beautiful block in December and we got some minor snows from it but by January we just had some ridging up top and a favorable longwave pattern driven by the pac. We got lucky with spacing though. A weak wave came through a few days before the blizzard which prevented it from cutting then the clippers was right after it and that helped us with the storm 3 days later! That epic week was due to lucky wave spacing rotating around in the longwave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 $100 it comes up the coast more as we go forward. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Euro looks like it's going to be a suppressed version of the Canadian. crazy that snow in the upper midwest can miss us to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: $100 it comes up the coast more as we go forward. 500 miles at 18z would be a start 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: crazy that snow in the upper midwest can miss us to the south First one brings showers to Bermuda, second one clips Montreal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Euro is an unmitigated dumpster fire. Of course day 10 always looks promising tho. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro is an unmitigated dumpster fire. Of course day 10 always looks promising tho. all the euro ever says is no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 A couple days ago the op Gfs and euro took turns showing snow and everyone was whining the ensembles were meh with a low snow mean. Now the gefs and geps were the weeniest runs we’ve had in a LONG time and everyone’s whining about the op euro run. 9 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A couple days ago the op Gfs and euro took turns showed snow and everyone was whining the ensembles were meh with a low snow mean. Now the gefs and geps were the weeniest rune we’ve had in a LONG time and everyone’s whining about the op euro run. its not fun not seeing snow on the OP run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, Ji said: its not fun not seeing snow on the OP run But you don’t like 4-6” events. No need to be upset over something you don’t care about. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ji said: all the euro ever says is no You just got 2 snowstorms 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, RedSky said: 500 miles at 18z would be a start If you’re thinking you’re getting the Atlantic system to back into the coast, my recommendation is a rehab center. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A couple days ago the op Gfs and euro took turns showed snow and everyone was whining the ensembles were meh with a low snow mean. Now the gefs and geps were the weeniest rune we’ve had in a LONG time and everyone’s whining about the op euro run. Define whining please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12z eps keeps hope alive for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 12z eps keeps hope alive for this weekend When was the hope about to die? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12 inches of snow here on the season right outside DC in a winter where many of us were expecting a ‘97-98 redux. Enjoy it and let the angst go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: When did it die? Between Social Studies and Home Economics 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said: 12 inches of snow here on the season right outside DC in a winter where many of us were expecting a ‘97-98 redux. Enjoy it and let the angst go. NJWxGuy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: When was the hope about to die? You see, if the Op run shows crap the sky is falling, at least until the Ensembles show hope. Then we are snow town USA. At least until the next Op run. That is Standard Operating Procedure for most of us here lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Define whining please You were dismissing the day 10 threat on the op euro but that’s the wave the Gfs turned into the 40” storm Saturday and that is the threat with the best setup as it looks right now. People are just impatient. The best part of this pattern is that it isn’t one and done. It looks like a sustained long period of chances for something to amplify just right. We need that because our success rate is pretty low on any given discreet threat even in a good pattern. Every once in a while we get lucky like 2010 or 2014 and almost every possible storm hits. But other then those once a decade periods we usually need multiple threats in a good pattern to get a good storm. Think of the “good” patterns we’ve had since 2014. We wasted several threats in 2015 before that arctic front set off our run the second half of Feb but we had to watch New England get 80” before our run started! We wasted a few SWs in Jan 2016 before the storm. We wasted 3 in March 2018 before we got a storm. Last year was weird in that the longwave “pattern” was good but there was no cold available due to what happened in late December. But even had there been cold we wasted like 4 discreet threats before something finally amplified enough to cause a storm. Wasting threats is normal. It often takes 3-4 good discreet threats to get one actual snowstorm. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 is it against the law to post any euro maps here? please for us po folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You were dismissing the day 10 threat on the op euro but that’s the wave the Gfs turned into the 40” storm Saturday and that is the threat with the best setup as it looks right now. People are just impatient. The best part of this pattern is that it isn’t one and done. It looks like a sustained long period of chances for something to amplify just right. We need that because our success rate is pretty low on any given discreet threat even in a good pattern. Every once in a while we get lucky like 2010 or 2014 and almost every possible storm hits. But other then those once a decade periods we usually need multiple threats in a good pattern to get a good storm. Think of the “good” patterns we’ve had since 2014. We wasted several threats in 2015 before that arctic front set off our run the second half of Feb but we had to watch New England get 80” before our gun started! We wasted a few SWs in Jan 2016 before the storm. We wasted 3 in March 2018 before we got a storm. Last year was weird in that the longwave “pattern” was good but there was no cold available due to what happened in late December. But even had there been cold we wasted like 4 discreet threats before something finally amplified enough to cause a storm. Wasting threats is normal. It often takes 3-4 good discreet threats to get one actual snowstorm. So to summarize, we are playing the numbers game like salesmen. Make enough phone calls or get enough storms in a given pattern, one will eventually hit. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Not a bad mean. Some take it up the coast (obviously, see snow mean) but plenty of others have it being a bit of slider, see below. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: $100 it comes up the coast more as we go forward. I'll take this action 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, Yeoman said: NJWxGuy? No just a guy lurking on the boards for 20 years through Midwest and Northeast winters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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