Weather Will Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS has a better h5 look once again Precip mean is starting to show a legit signal for the event Agreed!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'll take it, but I'm confused as to how the surface reflects what's going on at 500. Is it because the flow is flatter behind that big storm that in it on the GFS? This. I was confused at all the talk of a hit because I was just looking at H5 and never checked surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: No it doesn't matter, but that is just TT p-type suckage. To be clear, this isn't a big deal in any way, but it's not a TT issue. They're using the p-type information directly out of the GFS (and do that for all of the models) and not are computing it on their own. In lighter precip, the GFS can sometimes overmix the lower levels and warm them up a bit too much, and that appears to be what is happening in that example. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed!!! P18 is having a party.. that belongs in the digital snow thread.. its kinda absurd lol not for our area ofc but still the wildest output I've seen for a given ensemble member within 100hrs, needs no further discussion ig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: No it doesn't matter, but that is just TT p-type suckage. It is BS but Chuck had one good nugget mixed into his typical word salad this morning which was it’s not that cold given the pattern. The frame he pointed out had a 1040 high in southern Quebec/Ontario with a NW flow and storm off the coast and it was only “average” temps here. I can pick out several days where the “pattern” says it should be a truly bitter cold day but it’s like 40 in DC. That’s not necessarily 100% relevant to any discreet snow chances since a 40 degree surface temp on a sunny day isn’t relevant to what it would be while precipitating when the dew point is like 12* but it’s still worth mentioning, as @WxUSAF has also noticed, how hard it is to get REALLY cold around here lately. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: P18 is having a party.. that belongs in the digital snow thread.. its kinda absurd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: My bad. I was just talking about weather on a weather board. Ok so you’ve identified the problem, next step is what to do about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 This is the one I'm looking at. If we have a -EPO/+PNA pattern the last week of January, this will be a big snowstorm probably. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Math is hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: It lands the snowicane in Massachusetts. Results are extraordinary, but not for us. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed!!! P13 looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Looking at individual ensemble member runs is like window shopping. You can salivate and wonder what its like to have it, but you never will because you can't afford it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Looking at individual ensemble member runs is like window shopping. You can salivate and wonder what its like to have it, but you never will because you can't afford it. Yes, But it still releases the all important dopamine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 55 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nope. H5 better, but still flattened/kicked/smooshed/regal beagled I have never hated an inanimate object more than I hate this ocean low. I'm legit inconsolable. Thank God none of the output today will likely be the final outcome. It's way more moving parts than just that ocean storm you hate. It's also going to depend on spacing with the NS and which STJ waves can time up with one of the NS vorts and how much and when something amplifies. I can sum up what we're looking at for the next 10 days. And the good pattern by no means ends there...there are "threats" stacked up in the flow one after another after that on the long range guidance, but I think 10 days out is the furthest we can realistically even guess as the general synoptic setups. The rest of this work week were stuck in the NW flow on the backside of the trough and there is no chance for anything of significance. After that the trough starts to retrograde in response to the north pacific vortex backing off. The pac jet retraction we have been hearing about. After that there are 4 NS and 3 STJ SW's in the flow to be watched. Each likely has more room to amplify than the last. The first NS and STJ SW become the ocean hurricane you hate so much and that has virtually no chance to impact our area. It's coming too soon in the process. The second NS vort is the one that could impact our area over the weekend. It's digging impressively far south for a NS system, it's leaving the next STJ wave behind and going it alone. The limiting factor with that threat is that it is almost 100% NS and the ocean hurricane you love might be too close limiting its ability to turn the corner and amplify. It's far enough out though that it has a decent chance and is close enough to something on guidance that I wouldn't be shocked, but suppressed is probably the threat to missing that. The next threat to watch is around next Tuesday Jan 18th with NS wave 2 and STJ wave 1. But we have no idea how they interact and if the STJ wave phases or gets left behind again. All the events before then will impact that threat window. Still...the general longwave setup heading into that period is even better and this one will have a STJ wave around to be tapped if things come together. Just at a glance this might be an even better threat than the weekend...with the exception of if the weekend thing blows up it could suppress the next. There isn't a lot of spacing between these SW's. The last threat window I will even speculate on would be later next week around the 20th as another NS SW and STJ wave come east into the trough. Again...the trough axis and spacing on this one looks good from this range but the details will be determined by what happens with threats 1-2 which are partially impacted by that ocean storm. There look to be more threats lined up after but now were getting out to total fantasy time ranges. There is way too much going on in the flow to expect guidance to get any of this right from outside like 4 days or so. This pattern is absolutely loaded though. The only way I see a total fail from this would be if the spacing ends up too close between all these waves, and none really amplify and they all split the difference and we get a bunch of weak waves. But guidance has a hard time resolving exactly what SW to amplify in this type of pattern from range. I wouldn't worry about that yet. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Webb throwing out the 2018 analog: journey to Charlottesville, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 It’s delicate. The flow has to be flattened somewhat or our low will end up in Michigan. We need the suppressed flow behind the monster and then we need the monster to move out about 12 hours earlier. At least that’s my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 44 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'll take it, but I'm confused as to how the surface reflects what's going on at 500. Is it because the flow is flatter behind that big storm that in it on the GFS? I'm probably way off here but when I was looking at 500, I saw the ocean storm had a different look than GFS and was scooting out of the way - that and the vort diving down from the plains on the CMC was broader in the TN valley than the closed 500 low so I figured it would allow the surface low to reach our area vs being too far SE like the GFS. It honestly could have been a lucky guess on bad analysis lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 45 minutes ago, high risk said: To be clear, this isn't a big deal in any way, but it's not a TT issue. They're using the p-type information directly out of the GFS (and do that for all of the models) and not are computing it on their own. In lighter precip, the GFS can sometimes overmix the lower levels and warm them up a bit too much, and that appears to be what is happening in that example. I only commented because I was looking through the panels on WB for that period and the p-type maps there indicate snow at that same time. I mean temps are 34-35 and the precip at that point is light so it really makes no sensible difference, but I have seen ptype 'disagreements' on TT compared to other sources before, so some interpretation probably with marginal surface temps. Imo people rely too much on those maps instead of looking at the temps through the column and qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's way more moving parts than just that ocean storm you hate. Well yeah, of course. But that's the key player in this whole mess. Get rid of that and the possibilities go from shut out to a much better outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12z CMC is nice for the weekend. Solid warning level event, no temp issues. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z CMC is nice for the weekend. Solid warning level event, no temp issues. Canadian ensembles agree with the OP. A bit south at the moment, but an impressive precip and snow mean to boot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Adding onto my previous post, if the 12z CMC were to verify, it would bring DCA to near full climo for yearly snowfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Looking forward to 12Z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Just for the record, I'm not debbing at all. When I deb, that's when you know it's really bad. I'm just cursing the Gyre from hell on the GFS because it's ****ing everything up on that model. We got a good pattern and likely best pattern since the 2013-16 run. For DC it’s always about the cold source and Mongolia has been sending us some nice nice and Pacific is not belching Pacific air up into Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I have a hard time seeing temps being an issue for the next few weeks for any of us. The source region of the air that is going to flood the conus is bitter. Like -40 to -50 cold. Could just be that the model is having a hard time with what temps should be at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Canadian ensembles agree with the OP. A bit south at the moment, but an impressive precip and snow mean to boot. Nice to see the ensembles agree with the OP. If the Euro looks anything like the Canadian, we might be on the way to stealing a third event inside 120 hours this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, VA Mad Man said: Looking forward to 12Z Euro Usually a bad idea 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Usually a bad idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 59 minutes ago, high risk said: To be clear, this isn't a big deal in any way, but it's not a TT issue. They're using the p-type information directly out of the GFS (and do that for all of the models) and not are computing it on their own. In lighter precip, the GFS can sometimes overmix the lower levels and warm them up a bit too much, and that appears to be what is happening in that example. Or no ice nucleation or only very low level lift resulting in drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 44 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Webb throwing out the 2018 analog: journey to Charlottesville, anyone? The pacific is a lot more favorable now v that setup but the Atlantic might be even more suppressive. In the end it might end up a wash creating a similar result I’m just pointing out the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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