LeesburgWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Looking at individual ensemble member runs is like window shopping. You can salivate and wonder what its like to have it, but you never will because you can't afford it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Looking at individual ensemble member runs is like window shopping. You can salivate and wonder what its like to have it, but you never will because you can't afford it. Yes, But it still releases the all important dopamine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 55 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nope. H5 better, but still flattened/kicked/smooshed/regal beagled I have never hated an inanimate object more than I hate this ocean low. I'm legit inconsolable. Thank God none of the output today will likely be the final outcome. It's way more moving parts than just that ocean storm you hate. It's also going to depend on spacing with the NS and which STJ waves can time up with one of the NS vorts and how much and when something amplifies. I can sum up what we're looking at for the next 10 days. And the good pattern by no means ends there...there are "threats" stacked up in the flow one after another after that on the long range guidance, but I think 10 days out is the furthest we can realistically even guess as the general synoptic setups. The rest of this work week were stuck in the NW flow on the backside of the trough and there is no chance for anything of significance. After that the trough starts to retrograde in response to the north pacific vortex backing off. The pac jet retraction we have been hearing about. After that there are 4 NS and 3 STJ SW's in the flow to be watched. Each likely has more room to amplify than the last. The first NS and STJ SW become the ocean hurricane you hate so much and that has virtually no chance to impact our area. It's coming too soon in the process. The second NS vort is the one that could impact our area over the weekend. It's digging impressively far south for a NS system, it's leaving the next STJ wave behind and going it alone. The limiting factor with that threat is that it is almost 100% NS and the ocean hurricane you love might be too close limiting its ability to turn the corner and amplify. It's far enough out though that it has a decent chance and is close enough to something on guidance that I wouldn't be shocked, but suppressed is probably the threat to missing that. The next threat to watch is around next Tuesday Jan 18th with NS wave 2 and STJ wave 1. But we have no idea how they interact and if the STJ wave phases or gets left behind again. All the events before then will impact that threat window. Still...the general longwave setup heading into that period is even better and this one will have a STJ wave around to be tapped if things come together. Just at a glance this might be an even better threat than the weekend...with the exception of if the weekend thing blows up it could suppress the next. There isn't a lot of spacing between these SW's. The last threat window I will even speculate on would be later next week around the 20th as another NS SW and STJ wave come east into the trough. Again...the trough axis and spacing on this one looks good from this range but the details will be determined by what happens with threats 1-2 which are partially impacted by that ocean storm. There look to be more threats lined up after but now were getting out to total fantasy time ranges. There is way too much going on in the flow to expect guidance to get any of this right from outside like 4 days or so. This pattern is absolutely loaded though. The only way I see a total fail from this would be if the spacing ends up too close between all these waves, and none really amplify and they all split the difference and we get a bunch of weak waves. But guidance has a hard time resolving exactly what SW to amplify in this type of pattern from range. I wouldn't worry about that yet. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Webb throwing out the 2018 analog: journey to Charlottesville, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 It’s delicate. The flow has to be flattened somewhat or our low will end up in Michigan. We need the suppressed flow behind the monster and then we need the monster to move out about 12 hours earlier. At least that’s my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 44 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'll take it, but I'm confused as to how the surface reflects what's going on at 500. Is it because the flow is flatter behind that big storm that in it on the GFS? I'm probably way off here but when I was looking at 500, I saw the ocean storm had a different look than GFS and was scooting out of the way - that and the vort diving down from the plains on the CMC was broader in the TN valley than the closed 500 low so I figured it would allow the surface low to reach our area vs being too far SE like the GFS. It honestly could have been a lucky guess on bad analysis lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 45 minutes ago, high risk said: To be clear, this isn't a big deal in any way, but it's not a TT issue. They're using the p-type information directly out of the GFS (and do that for all of the models) and not are computing it on their own. In lighter precip, the GFS can sometimes overmix the lower levels and warm them up a bit too much, and that appears to be what is happening in that example. I only commented because I was looking through the panels on WB for that period and the p-type maps there indicate snow at that same time. I mean temps are 34-35 and the precip at that point is light so it really makes no sensible difference, but I have seen ptype 'disagreements' on TT compared to other sources before, so some interpretation probably with marginal surface temps. Imo people rely too much on those maps instead of looking at the temps through the column and qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's way more moving parts than just that ocean storm you hate. Well yeah, of course. But that's the key player in this whole mess. Get rid of that and the possibilities go from shut out to a much better outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12z CMC is nice for the weekend. Solid warning level event, no temp issues. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z CMC is nice for the weekend. Solid warning level event, no temp issues. Canadian ensembles agree with the OP. A bit south at the moment, but an impressive precip and snow mean to boot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Adding onto my previous post, if the 12z CMC were to verify, it would bring DCA to near full climo for yearly snowfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Looking forward to 12Z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Just for the record, I'm not debbing at all. When I deb, that's when you know it's really bad. I'm just cursing the Gyre from hell on the GFS because it's ****ing everything up on that model. We got a good pattern and likely best pattern since the 2013-16 run. For DC it’s always about the cold source and Mongolia has been sending us some nice nice and Pacific is not belching Pacific air up into Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I have a hard time seeing temps being an issue for the next few weeks for any of us. The source region of the air that is going to flood the conus is bitter. Like -40 to -50 cold. Could just be that the model is having a hard time with what temps should be at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Canadian ensembles agree with the OP. A bit south at the moment, but an impressive precip and snow mean to boot. Nice to see the ensembles agree with the OP. If the Euro looks anything like the Canadian, we might be on the way to stealing a third event inside 120 hours this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, VA Mad Man said: Looking forward to 12Z Euro Usually a bad idea 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Usually a bad idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 59 minutes ago, high risk said: To be clear, this isn't a big deal in any way, but it's not a TT issue. They're using the p-type information directly out of the GFS (and do that for all of the models) and not are computing it on their own. In lighter precip, the GFS can sometimes overmix the lower levels and warm them up a bit too much, and that appears to be what is happening in that example. Or no ice nucleation or only very low level lift resulting in drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 44 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Webb throwing out the 2018 analog: journey to Charlottesville, anyone? The pacific is a lot more favorable now v that setup but the Atlantic might be even more suppressive. In the end it might end up a wash creating a similar result I’m just pointing out the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Euro looks similar to GFS so far. Big storm may be farther east than GFS, but it's about the same strength and lattitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Math is hard I was trying to make a Joke I will take p13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Euro looks like it's going to be a suppressed version of the Canadian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Euro looks like it's going to be a suppressed version of the Canadian. Narrator: It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just a tad squished off the southeast coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Well yeah, of course. But that's the key player in this whole mess. Get rid of that and the possibilities go from shut out to a much better outcome. Except that if you removed it completely the weekend threat likely cuts and we’re waiting until the early next week threat anyways! The setup is like a big pinwheel (not talking about the ocean storm I’m talking about the whole longwave pattern rotating SWs around the PV lobe in Canada. The “suppression” behind each wave in that cycle sets us up for the next. Even with a great pattern there isn’t some cut off Rex block to prevent a cutter. There is ridging in the HL but not a true block. That’s the one time we don’t have to worry about wave spacing. Otherwise even with a favorable longwave pattern too much spacing and something that amplifies a lot will likely cut. Im not saying that to say this pattern isn’t as good as a true blocking one. Sometimes we fail then too. Not enough stj and those can be frustratingly dry with NS miller b storms teasing and frustrating us. And we have gone on some epic tears in this kind of pattern before. Jan 1996 was actually a similar setup that worked. Not exactly but close. This was the pattern Jan 1-5 that set that in motion. Notice the un Nina like north pac trough similar to now with the epo/pna ridge. Note though there is no canonical Rex NAO block like 2010. There was a beautiful block in December and we got some minor snows from it but by January we just had some ridging up top and a favorable longwave pattern driven by the pac. We got lucky with spacing though. A weak wave came through a few days before the blizzard which prevented it from cutting then the clippers was right after it and that helped us with the storm 3 days later! That epic week was due to lucky wave spacing rotating around in the longwave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 $100 it comes up the coast more as we go forward. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Euro looks like it's going to be a suppressed version of the Canadian. crazy that snow in the upper midwest can miss us to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: $100 it comes up the coast more as we go forward. 500 miles at 18z would be a start 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: crazy that snow in the upper midwest can miss us to the south First one brings showers to Bermuda, second one clips Montreal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Euro is an unmitigated dumpster fire. Of course day 10 always looks promising tho. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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