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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I think we might like this run a little better looking at the H5 panels

Nope.   H5 better, but still flattened/kicked/smooshed/regal beagled

I have never hated an inanimate object more than I hate this ocean low.   I'm legit inconsolable.  

Thank God none of the output today will likely be the final outcome. 

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We get that system off the coast to speed up and get out of the way, and we’re gonna have an event this weekend. The gfs is also doing a lot of phasing and retrograding of that system that the other models don’t seem to be doing. Instead of it becoming a 50/50 it’s becoming more of a 50/65 and it’s squashing the next one right off the coast. There still a good shot IMO.

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25 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Or maybe @Jebman will jump into it with his shovel a'la "Sharknado" and save us all!

My son did the special effects and had 2 cameo appearances in sharknado 3 …he is in the credits. He posted on his Facebook something to the effect “to all my classmates who moaned and groaned that they would never have a use for calculus, I just wrote a computer program that will render 2 million sharks per second in a tornado.”

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35 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nope.   H5 better, but still flattened/kicked/smooshed/regal beagled

I have never hated an inanimate object more than I hate this ocean low.   I'm legit inconsolable.  

Thank God none of the output today will likely be the final outcome. 

You're right, it's going to go even lower. Sub 930 or bust.

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12 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'll take it, but I'm confused as to how the surface reflects what's going on at 500. Is it because the flow is flatter behind that big storm that in it on the GFS?

This.  I was confused at all the talk of a hit because I was just looking at H5 and never checked surface.   

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20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

No it doesn't matter, but that is just TT p-type suckage.

       To be clear, this isn't a big deal in any way, but it's not a TT issue.     They're using the p-type information directly out of the GFS (and do that for all of the models) and not are computing it on their own.      In lighter precip, the GFS can sometimes overmix the lower levels and warm them up a bit too much, and that appears to be what is happening in that example.

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21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

No it doesn't matter, but that is just TT p-type suckage.

It is BS but Chuck had one good nugget mixed into his typical word salad this morning which was it’s not that cold given the pattern. The frame he pointed out had a 1040 high in southern Quebec/Ontario with a NW flow and storm off the coast and it was only “average” temps here. I can pick out several days where the “pattern” says it should be a truly bitter cold day but it’s like 40 in DC.  That’s not necessarily 100% relevant to any discreet snow chances since a 40 degree surface temp on a sunny day isn’t relevant to what it would be while precipitating when the dew point is like 12* but it’s still worth mentioning, as @WxUSAF has also noticed, how hard it is to get REALLY cold around here lately. 

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