Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Euro looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Euro looks interesting Suppressd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 SuppressdDepressed 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Screwed by the 5050 low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 When you hit singles in a hr derbyWhen you drive 94 yards and settle for 23 yard field goal that goes wide. When you give up a shorthanded goal on a 5-3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I've done LP comparisons with the OP and Ensembles in the past, but I think it has more weight at this range compared to within 100hrs. There seems to be two camps with the 0z EPS: closer to the coast, and suppressed solutions. The Euro falls in camp two, with this overlay of the OP and Ensemble showcasing that There's a lot of visual clutter here, but the large L represents the Operational run, put on top of the ensemble. It shows a 2 LP look but the most northeast one seems to be the correct position as this panel is mid transfer. This shows that the Euro op run is in the "suppressed" camp for sure. Here's the EPS run itself to clear up any confusion with respect to the OP This is actually a slight improvement from 12z. The spread is to be expected, but the mean is still showing a significant LP somewhere in the vicinity of offshore NC Finally, the look over top improved somewhat compared to 12z. The 50/50 signal shifted a tiny bit west, and the HP position and strength looks as solid as the EPS has shown so far 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dare I say....I kinda miss TWC circa 1987-1995ish. Actual mets, some extremely extremely advanced mets (Stu Ostro, John Hope, Paul Kocin, Dave Schwartz, etc etc). Actually delved into atmospheric sciences and taught and took time to explain and weren't just on camera celebs. I know that outlet tends to get ripped by weenies near and far....but that was a much simpler time and we were at the mercy of the long range forecast they did once or twice an hour. Good stuff. The coverage of the 93 and 96 storms on there....epic.....just epic. That 1996 Bliz coverage on TWC was truly EPIC - At least a hundred Bob Chill Faces EPIC! Just Wow! I was up all night, all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Yeah, Obviously when the -PNA comes back it's going to stick around for the Winter. Our window is small. I do have a +PNA signal 2-21/22-22 though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Would the 06z ICON be good for us if it went out another 24 hours? I would think so... with a 1040 HP sliding eastward into Quebec and a 1039 in ND... but the SLP on the OK/TX border at 1003mb is giving me slight pause with the h5 energy/shortwave being a bit far behind -- or is that the kicker? Also, I'd think that huge ocean low would help with the HP getting blocked up in Quebec, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Let's see what's going on here at 98hrs This would be a great chance to trend west if not for this complete depletion of reverse-Dec -PNA. It's too strong otherside/+PNA. We miss it. NAO-PNA are running together wrt every storm. ^1040mb High pressure, we aren't even that cold believe it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, yoda said: Would the 06z ICON be good for us if it went out another 24 hours? I would think so... with a 1040 HP sliding eastward into Quebec and a 1039 in ND... but the SLP on the OK/TX border at 1003mb is giving me slight pause with the h5 energy/shortwave being a bit far behind -- or is that the kicker? Also, I'd think that huge ocean low would help with the HP getting blocked up in Quebec, yes? Idk Yoda, when the h5 vort panel looks like this at hr120 (6-7 shortwaves compressed in a tiny area of the globe), it's safe to assume that it didn't get to the right place, so where it goes from there is likely less right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 16 of the 50 (32%) 00z individual EPS members have 6"+ DCA through hour 192... so some EPS members are liking the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 6z gefs has a few decent hits day 6-7 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 STJ near Mexico GFS ens's are borderline going back to -PNA/something at Day 15, so we'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Tomer and Tony (WPC met) are getting interested in this weekend's potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Goddamn GFS Atlantic Wintercane 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Is it over again? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 This pattern is like the equivalency of wading in the water with no net and hoping to catch a school of fish passing by. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 41 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: STJ near Mexico GFS ens's are borderline going back to -PNA/something at Day 15, so we'll see You can see the pattern already reverting back on several of the ens members by day 12. I will say this....we've scored twice with the negative PNA and there are zero guarantees with the +PNA this year. Seems the alignment of the pna ridge is forcing the mean trof in the East too far off the coast based on progs. Regardless, I dont hate the looks moving forward....think we have chances with either phase of PNA as long as we don't go back to a -5SD -PNA. Im a believer in less is more....dont always want/need an epic tandem of tellies to score. Should be an interesting window coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 26 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Goddamn GFS Atlantic Wintercane Is this the buzzword this season? No more bomb cyclone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 hours ago, Ji said: 7 hours ago, Ji said: Euro looks interesting Suppressd That’s a legitimate possibility but it’s inherent risk anytime we are in a good pattern with big storm risk. We need tha risk of suppression because that is what also gives us the possibility of a big storm. Without a suppressive flow to resist strong WAA and ridging any amplifying string wave will cut to our north. Of course the risk then becomes any wave not amplified enough will get squashed to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is it over again? Didn’t Confucius say it was always over until it starts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Didn’t Confucius say it was always over until it starts? I can’t keep track around here. I think we will be tracking a storm by the end of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is this the buzzword this season? No more bomb cyclone? "Atmospheric River" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 We should get 2 weeks of a great pattern, then just an ok one. The problem is, that the first week of the good pattern there is no real potential for storms until Friday. Then next week looks to be messed up from the "wintercane" leading to storms most likely missing. Something to keep in mind however is the fact that there are still some good outcomes on the table this weekend, and if we get a good outcome then it also opens up next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is this the buzzword this season? No more bomb cyclone? Haha, maybe so! Did it override "-PNA!!!" from earlier in the season? Seems every year has the big buzzword, in the media and elsewhere. Like "Polar Vortex!!" back around 2014. Anyhow, to your point above, yeah if we don't have some ridiculous extreme -PNA, that doesn't have to be a bad thing. I thought we typically actually need some kind of southeast ridging (a little, not crazy!) to keep storms from being too suppressed. Always the tight-rope, I suppose! But the upcoming pattern does look intriguing. Hopefully we can score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just for the record, I'm not debbing at all. When I deb, that's when you know it's really bad. I'm just cursing the Gyre from hell on the GFS because it's ****ing everything up on that model. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Just for the record, I'm not debbing at all. When I deb, that's when you know it's really bad. I'm just cursing the Gyre from hell on the GFS because it's ****ing everything up on that model. It's in a strong shear zone and should transition to subtropical before causing too much damage. That said, I've asked FCPS to close just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Yeoman said: It's in a strong shear zone and should transition to subtropical before causing too much damage. That said, I've asked FCPS to close just in case. I’ll take another day, or week. It’s going to be cold tomorrow. Can you get FCPS to close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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