Solution Man Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Ok, wanted to make a post showing the impact of the ocean storm on ~Friday to the environment afterward and hence the possibility of a Sunday/MLK day storm. Helpfully, the 3 big globals provided a very nice contrast in this with their 12z runs. Obviously there are other differences that impact the result as well, but I think the ocean storm is a pretty big player to help define the storm track and whether it gives room to the next shortwave/s to amplify. First is the 12z GFS. It produced a very strong ocean storm that was close to shore. For reference across all 3 models, the shortwave that could produce a late weekend storm is near the US/Canadian border over ND/MN in the northern stream. There's also southern stream energy over the intermountain West and southern CA. Next is the GGEM. It's ocean storm is weaker and farther SE over the ocean. It's nearly a cutoff low and just meanders out to sea. Lastly is the Euro. It produces a storm, but it's moving offshore and is "just right" in terms of storm strength. Strong enough to suppress the flow, but not too strong to swamp everything else. Helpfully, also note how the northern stream and southern stream energy already is somewhat "phased" here (all the shortwaves are in line from Los Angeles all the way up to Manitoba). So what happens after? Watch the dark green color, which in this case is the 552 dm height contour, and the light blue (534 dm height). GFS: Look how close the ocean storm is to the surface reflection of our shortwave of interest (the L near Cleveland). Light blue height level right through the Great Lakes. The ocean storm hangs around and is very strong. It suppresses the flow and gives our shortwave no room to amplify. So we end up with a weak frontal passage. GGEM: The storms have more spacing, the ocean low is weaker, and there's TOO MUCH room for our shortwave/storm to amplify. Dark green height contour is well up into OH/PA/NYC. Result? Cutter. Euro: Now it's JUST RIGHT. The ocean storm is nearly as strong as on the GFS, but it's farther OTS. So it's suppressing the flow just enough (dark green contour is through VA), but not TOO MUCH. Hence, our storm tracks farther south and it's bombs away. And yes, the Euro is also good because it phases the northern and southern stream energy. But the storm track is important. Phase the energy on the Euro, but have an ocean storm like on the GGEM and the thing cuts to Hudson Bay and we get warm rain. I think the GFS solution of a strong ocean storm that's close to shore is probably the last likely? 18z GFS was a small step toward a more Euro like outcome. GGEM and Euro like outcomes for the ocean storm are more likely IMO, but that doesn't mean we get a big snowy coastal because that's also contingent on how and if the energy out west phases. Thank you…fine write up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, frd said: LOVE this animation posted by Griteater. Pretty incredible to imagine the possibilities ahead. s At first I thought that was the Ensemble mean and got really excited. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs is mostly leaving the southern stream behind. Was a pretty common thing with the GFS before the upgrade. We are going to find out if that has been fixed or not over the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 36 minutes ago, frd said: LOVE this animation posted by Griteater. Pretty incredible to imagine the possibilities ahead. s Just to drive home the luck factor…that loop is beautiful. Absolutely perfect pattern. But look at the result of that run on the ground. 1 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Was a pretty common thing with the GFS before the upgrade. We are going to find out if that has been fixed or not over the next couple of weeks. did you just put together an WTF QB Draft package video lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just to drive home the luck factor…that loop is beautiful. Absolutely perfect pattern. But look at the result of that run on the ground. know that would be a hell of a guest post by Steve. Thanks for doing that btw! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I’m kind of expecting a big snow in the Carolinas out of this upcoming pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just to drive home the luck factor…that loop is beautiful. Absolutely perfect pattern. But look at the result of that run on the ground. That is funny. I guess luck needs to be listed first in order of importance above a - AO , -NAO or a + PNA in the Mid Atlantic. Hopefully we get some great luck to go with our upcoming favorable pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, Ji said: did you just put together an WTF QB Draft package video lol? Yes. I spend entirely too much time on forums. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 If Charlotte gets 22 inches and I get 2 over the next 3 weeks I am quitting this hobby. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: If Charlotte gets 22 inches and I get 2 over the next 3 weeks I am quitting this hobby. Amen to that brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 45 minutes ago, Ji said: know that would be a hell of a guest post by Steve. Thanks for doing that btw! No problem. It’s a really cool thing you got over there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: If Charlotte gets 22 inches and I get 2 over the next 3 weeks I am quitting this hobby. If Charlotte gets 22 inches ever then hell has frozen over. I lived there. 2 inches of snow is a blizzard to them. I think their greatest storm ever was like 14 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 51 minutes ago, frd said: That is funny. I guess luck needs to be listed first in order of importance above a - AO , -NAO or a + PNA in the Mid Atlantic. Hopefully we get some great luck to go with our upcoming favorable pattern. Your point is correct but those other things (the ways we quantify the pattern) are pre-requisites before luck even matters. We can luck our way to some minor marginal events without any pattern help but we’re not getting a MECS or HECS or some heater of successive SECS’s without any pattern help no matter what. Sometimes we can score with “less” help but if the NAO, AO, PNA, EPO are all bad luck won’t save us. The pattern puts us in the game then we need luck to win. On a related note, there were a handful of warning snows in my case study (BWI warning snows since 1950) without any discernible pattern help in the indexes but they all had a Hudson Bay ridge. That’s a weird feature that doesn’t always show up on any of the numerical indexes yet it’s a more regional feature that can turn an otherwise bad pattern into a workable one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Yes. I spend entirely too much time on forums. Lol carson strong=drew blesdoe. I like Corrall but wouldn't give up 2 first for him.I miss the redskins. Our winter snow has actually been better than our football since 1992 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Canadian has the Saturday storm, plus another one at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, KingJWx said: Canadian has the Saturday storm, plus another one at day 10. Canadian Ensembles build a signal for a favorable LP as well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Gefs took a baby step towards the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Gefs took a baby step towards the euro. Watch the 00z euro take a baby step to the gefs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Euro looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Euro looks interesting Suppressd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 SuppressdDepressed 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Screwed by the 5050 low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 When you hit singles in a hr derbyWhen you drive 94 yards and settle for 23 yard field goal that goes wide. When you give up a shorthanded goal on a 5-3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I've done LP comparisons with the OP and Ensembles in the past, but I think it has more weight at this range compared to within 100hrs. There seems to be two camps with the 0z EPS: closer to the coast, and suppressed solutions. The Euro falls in camp two, with this overlay of the OP and Ensemble showcasing that There's a lot of visual clutter here, but the large L represents the Operational run, put on top of the ensemble. It shows a 2 LP look but the most northeast one seems to be the correct position as this panel is mid transfer. This shows that the Euro op run is in the "suppressed" camp for sure. Here's the EPS run itself to clear up any confusion with respect to the OP This is actually a slight improvement from 12z. The spread is to be expected, but the mean is still showing a significant LP somewhere in the vicinity of offshore NC Finally, the look over top improved somewhat compared to 12z. The 50/50 signal shifted a tiny bit west, and the HP position and strength looks as solid as the EPS has shown so far 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dare I say....I kinda miss TWC circa 1987-1995ish. Actual mets, some extremely extremely advanced mets (Stu Ostro, John Hope, Paul Kocin, Dave Schwartz, etc etc). Actually delved into atmospheric sciences and taught and took time to explain and weren't just on camera celebs. I know that outlet tends to get ripped by weenies near and far....but that was a much simpler time and we were at the mercy of the long range forecast they did once or twice an hour. Good stuff. The coverage of the 93 and 96 storms on there....epic.....just epic. That 1996 Bliz coverage on TWC was truly EPIC - At least a hundred Bob Chill Faces EPIC! Just Wow! I was up all night, all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Yeah, Obviously when the -PNA comes back it's going to stick around for the Winter. Our window is small. I do have a +PNA signal 2-21/22-22 though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Would the 06z ICON be good for us if it went out another 24 hours? I would think so... with a 1040 HP sliding eastward into Quebec and a 1039 in ND... but the SLP on the OK/TX border at 1003mb is giving me slight pause with the h5 energy/shortwave being a bit far behind -- or is that the kicker? Also, I'd think that huge ocean low would help with the HP getting blocked up in Quebec, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Let's see what's going on here at 98hrs This would be a great chance to trend west if not for this complete depletion of reverse-Dec -PNA. It's too strong otherside/+PNA. We miss it. NAO-PNA are running together wrt every storm. ^1040mb High pressure, we aren't even that cold believe it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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