January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[jviper]

It’s winter. 

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

So does your avatar/profile pic choices

Don't be jealous

[Scraff]

My own personal mindset on the upcoming pattern:

Unfortunately I missed the dueling 2010 beasts. Damn kids and the Disney World trip! LOL. I remember being on my BlackBerry (while waiting in line for Its a Small World) scrolling our forums and just dying inside as the excitement level was off the charts. We got home the end of that week to see the apocalyptic snow bombs that went off. Thank god my neighbors shoveled us a walkway to my house. It was effing nuts. Anyway—the point of my dumb story—I’ve been saying and praying since then that I hoped to get a second chance to live that all over again. So I’m rooting for dueling HECS damn it!  That’s it. Hope you enjoyed wasting your time reading this stupid non-meteorological post. 

[Chris78]

54 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So if the Friday storm gets close to hitting it messes up another potential storm around Monday which has more potential? Just don’t really see a reason to root against a potential snowstorm.

Friday is a very long shot. Even if it gets close it has heartbreak - think  boxing day storm written all over it. 

If that storm hangs around to the east of us for too long it will run interference and mess up the next couple of opportunities. 

Someone else could explain it more eloquently than me but we need that storm to get lost or move up into the 50/50 location to give room for the next storm to amplify.

 

[LeesburgWx]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Friday is a very long shot. Even if it gets close it has heartbreak - think  boxing day storm written all over it. 

If that storm hangs around to the east of us for too long it will run interference and mess up the next couple of opportunities. 

Someone else could explain it more eloquently than me but we need that storm to get lost or move up into the 50/50 location to give room for the next storm to amplify.

 

So we usually complain it’s the storm after the storm on models but now we are rooting for the storm after the storm… 

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

So we usually complain it’s the storm after the storm on models but now we are rooting for the storm after the storm… 

We've got 4 days to get the trof axis moved 500 miles west.

Edit : The longer it hangs around off the east coast anything else will get shredded to oblivion. 

[stormtracker]

I’m rooting for Jan 1987

[jewell2188]

Is this the year of last minute adjustments to give the area a decent storm?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

One of the ways to tell a good pattern is coming up is by consistently getting fantasty-land chances on the OP runs, which keeps showing up on almost every model fun.  This wasn’t happening last month (and it wasn’t even close).

But it snowed twice within 5 days and neither event was modeled out past 96 hrs. It's all rainbows and unicorns on guidance looking far ahead....until it all falls apart in a fiery blowtorch inferno under 5 days. I love tracking a MECS for 10+ days....well, honestly it's exhausting by the time the storm gets here. I would rather a ho hum pattern where we sneakily back into several modest events than a carrot dangling and pulled away at the last minute. But thats me. But like any gambler will tell you, you need to play big to win big...  so there's that.

[Ralph Wiggum]

51 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Friday is a very long shot. Even if it gets close it has heartbreak - think  boxing day storm written all over it. 

If that storm hangs around to the east of us for too long it will run interference and mess up the next couple of opportunities. 

Someone else could explain it more eloquently than me but we need that storm to get lost or move up into the 50/50 location to give room for the next storm to amplify.

 

It only takes 1 teleconnection to be out of whack to throw the pattern of chaos into the abyss. If that coastal gyre mucks up what appears to be a decent stretch coming up, they will need to reopen the panic room before month's end.

[87storms]

we're due for a clipper which is starting to show up more consistently next weekend.  still too far north, but it's there.

[dseagull]

1 hour ago, Yeoman said:

Don't worry - school will still be closed

Hey, if we close for a sniffle, we shall close for a whiffle...lmao...Poor kids 

[dseagull]

55 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m rooting for Jan 1987

Amen. My first memorable storm and the year I became a merchant mariner. 

[dseagull]

28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

But it snowed twice within 5 days and neither event was modeled out past 96 hrs. It's all rainbows and unicorns on guidance looking far ahead....until it all falls apart in a fiery blowtorch inferno under 5 days. I love tracking a MECS for 10+ days....well, honestly it's exhausting by the time the storm gets here. I would rather a ho hum pattern where we sneakily back into several modest events than a carrot dangling and pulled away at the last minute. But thats me. But like any gambler will tell you, you need to play big to win big...  so there's that.

2009 and 2010 delivered those sharp upticks in guidance that satisfy the inner weenie even in old timers.    Call it nostalgia, but those were the systems that reminded me of somewhat elicited surprise in the 80s and 90s, because that was what we had to work with, model wise.  

 

I'd go back to the days without smart phones and reliable internet in a second.  The element of surprise and lack of communication was a beautiful thing. 

 

...memories are a wonderful thing.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, dseagull said:

2009 and 2010 delivered those sharp upticks in guidance that satisfy the inner weenie even in old timers.    Call it nostalgia, but those were the systems that reminded me of somewhat elicited surprise in the 80s and 90s, because that was what we had to work with, model wise.  

 

I'd go back to the days without smart phones and reliable internet in a second.  The element of surprise and lack of communication was a beautiful thing. 

 

...memories are a wonderful thing.  

Dare I say....I kinda miss TWC circa 1987-1995ish. Actual mets, some extremely extremely advanced mets (Stu Ostro, John Hope, Paul Kocin, Dave Schwartz, etc etc). Actually delved into atmospheric sciences and taught and took time to explain and weren't just on camera celebs. I know that outlet tends to get ripped by weenies near and far....but that was a much simpler time and we were at the mercy of the long range forecast they did once or twice an hour. Good stuff. The coverage of the 93 and 96 storms on there....epic.....just epic.  

[Jersey Andrew]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dare I say....I kinda miss TWC circa 1987-1995ish. Actual mets, some extremely extremely advanced mets (Stu Ostro, John Hope, Paul Kocin, Dave Schwartz, etc etc). Actually delved into atmospheric sciences and taught and took time to explain and weren't just on camera celebs. I know that outlet tends to get ripped by weenies near and far....but that was a much simpler time and we were at the mercy of the long range forecast they did once or twice an hour. Good stuff. The coverage of the 93 and 96 storms on there....epic.....just epic.  

1996 blizzard was the first real Internet storm. The old AOL dial up forecasts from SNONUT and PTRAVEL. I was a senior in high school and could not believe the 18-24 inches forecast but they certainly verified.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

1996 blizzard was the first real Internet storm. The old AOL dial up forecasts from SNONUT and PTRAVEL. I was a senior in high school and could not believe the 18-24 inches forecast but they certainly verified.

Damn....PTravel, there's a name i haven't heard in years 

[stormtracker]

GFS with that goddamn Atlantic winter hurricane. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It only takes 1 teleconnection to be out of whack to throw the pattern of chaos into the abyss. If that coastal gyre mucks up what appears to be a decent stretch coming up, they will need to reopen the panic room before month's end.

Honestly, man…dafuq are you going on about?

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS.  No fantasy snowstorm this run but the Friday low everyone is worried about is much weaker and further out to sea compared to 12Z.

[Anyweather]

Finally remembered my password! Whew!

Wanted to make sure I can represent Short Pump when the inevitable threats start showing up once we are 5 days out.

[dseagull]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dare I say....I kinda miss TWC circa 1987-1995ish. Actual mets, some extremely extremely advanced mets (Stu Ostro, John Hope, Paul Kocin, Dave Schwartz, etc etc). Actually delved into atmospheric sciences and taught and took time to explain and weren't just on camera celebs. I know that outlet tends to get ripped by weenies near and far....but that was a much simpler time and we were at the mercy of the long range forecast they did once or twice an hour. Good stuff. The coverage of the 93 and 96 storms on there....epic.....just epic.  

 

Spent many an hour staring at TWC, longgggg before it succumbed to the scourge of BS that is modern TV.  

Hold onto those memories. Nostalgia is a wonderful thing, even if it means a power mullet, 80s stash, and awkward TV persona!  Good times indeed.  

[WxUSAF]

Ok, wanted to make a post showing the impact of the ocean storm on ~Friday to the environment afterward and hence the possibility of a Sunday/MLK day storm.  Helpfully, the 3 big globals provided a very nice contrast in this with their 12z runs.  Obviously there are other differences that impact the result as well, but I think the ocean storm is a pretty big player to help define the storm track and whether it gives room to the next shortwave/s to amplify.  

 

First is the 12z GFS.  It produced a very strong ocean storm that was close to shore.  For reference across all 3 models, the shortwave that could produce a late weekend storm is near the US/Canadian border over ND/MN in the northern stream.  There's also southern stream energy over the intermountain West and southern CA.  

 

Next is the GGEM.  It's ocean storm is weaker and farther SE over the ocean.  It's nearly a cutoff low and just meanders out to sea.  

 

Lastly is the Euro.  It produces a storm, but it's moving offshore and is "just right" in terms of storm strength.  Strong enough to suppress the flow, but not too strong to swamp everything else.  Helpfully, also note how the northern stream and southern stream energy already is somewhat "phased" here (all the shortwaves are in line from Los Angeles all the way up to Manitoba).  

 

So what happens after?  Watch the dark green color, which in this case is the 552 dm height contour, and the light blue (534 dm height).  

GFS:  Look how close the ocean storm is to the surface reflection of our shortwave of interest (the L near Cleveland).  Light blue height level right through the Great Lakes.  The ocean storm hangs around and is very strong.  It suppresses the flow and gives our shortwave no room to amplify.  So we end up with a weak frontal passage.  

  

 

GGEM:  The storms have more spacing, the ocean low is weaker, and there's TOO MUCH room for our shortwave/storm to amplify.  Dark green height contour is well up into OH/PA/NYC. Result?  Cutter.  

 

Euro:  Now it's JUST RIGHT.  The ocean storm is nearly as strong as on the GFS, but it's farther OTS.  So it's suppressing the flow just enough (dark green contour is through VA), but not TOO MUCH.  Hence, our storm tracks farther south and it's bombs away.  And yes, the Euro is also good because it phases the northern and southern stream energy. But the storm track is important.  Phase the energy on the Euro, but have an ocean storm like on the GGEM and the thing cuts to Hudson Bay and we get warm rain.  

 

I think the GFS solution of a strong ocean storm that's close to shore is probably the last likely?  18z GFS was a small step toward a more Euro like outcome.  GGEM and Euro like outcomes for the ocean storm are more likely IMO, but that doesn't mean we get a big snowy coastal because that's also contingent on how and if the energy out west phases.  

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ok, wanted to make a post showing the impact of the ocean storm on ~Friday to the environment afterward and hence the possibility of a Sunday/MLK day storm.  Helpfully, the 3 big globals provided a very nice contrast in this with their 12z runs.  Obviously there are other differences that impact the result as well, but I think the ocean storm is a pretty big player to help define the storm track and whether it gives room to the next shortwave/s to amplify.  

 

First is the 12z GFS.  It produced a very strong ocean storm that was close to shore.  For reference across all 3 models, the shortwave that could produce a late weekend storm is near the US/Canadian border over ND/MN in the northern stream.  There's also southern stream energy over the intermountain West and southern CA.  

 

Next is the GGEM.  It's ocean storm is weaker and farther SE over the ocean.  It's nearly a cutoff low and just meanders out to sea.  

 

Lastly is the Euro.  It produces a storm, but it's moving offshore and is "just right" in terms of storm strength.  Strong enough to suppress the flow, but not too strong to swamp everything else.  Helpfully, also note how the northern stream and southern stream energy already is somewhat "phased" here (all the shortwaves are in line from Los Angeles all the way up to Manitoba).  

 

So what happens after?  Watch the dark green color, which in this case is the 552 dm height contour, and the light blue (534 dm height).  

GFS:  Look how close the ocean storm is to the surface reflection of our shortwave of interest (the L near Cleveland).  Light blue height level right through the Great Lakes.  The ocean storm hangs around and is very strong.  It suppresses the flow and gives our shortwave no room to amplify.  So we end up with a weak frontal passage.  

  

 

GGEM:  The storms have more spacing, the ocean low is weaker, and there's TOO MUCH room for our shortwave/storm to amplify.  Dark green height contour is well up into OH/PA/NYC. Result?  Cutter.  

 

Euro:  Now it's JUST RIGHT.  The ocean storm is nearly as strong as on the GFS, but it's farther OTS.  So it's suppressing the flow just enough (dark green contour is through VA), but not TOO MUCH.  Hence, our storm tracks farther south and it's bombs away.  And yes, the Euro is also good because it phases the northern and southern stream energy. But the storm track is important.  Phase the energy on the Euro, but have an ocean storm like on the GGEM and the thing cuts to Hudson Bay and we get warm rain.  

 

I think the GFS solution of a strong ocean storm that's close to shore is probably the last likely?  18z GFS was a small step toward a more Euro like outcome.  GGEM and Euro like outcomes for the ocean storm are more likely IMO, but that doesn't mean we get a big snowy coastal because that's also contingent on how and if the energy out west phases.  

Great right up and explanation with illustrations!

You put it much more eloquently than I did earlier this afternoon.

[WinterWxLuvr]

18z gefs members leave a lot of interesting possibilities on the table for next weekend.

[frd]

 

 

Wow, gets tastier and tastier as time moves on.  A very active pattern as John mentions. 

 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

18z gefs members leave a lot of interesting possibilities on the table for next weekend.

Gfs has way less separation because it’s digging the NS into the Ohio valley v the Midwest on the euro and the Gfs is mostly leaving the southern stream behind.  Euro has a very good synoptic setup for the weekend the Gfs not so much. Real model war in the not crazy long range going on. 

[stormtracker]

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ok, wanted to make a post showing the impact of the ocean storm on ~Friday to the environment afterward and hence the possibility of a Sunday/MLK day storm.  Helpfully, the 3 big globals provided a very nice contrast in this with their 12z runs.  Obviously there are other differences that impact the result as well, but I think the ocean storm is a pretty big player to help define the storm track and whether it gives room to the next shortwave/s to amplify.  

 

First is the 12z GFS.  It produced a very strong ocean storm that was close to shore.  For reference across all 3 models, the shortwave that could produce a late weekend storm is near the US/Canadian border over ND/MN in the northern stream.  There's also southern stream energy over the intermountain West and southern CA.  

 

Next is the GGEM.  It's ocean storm is weaker and farther SE over the ocean.  It's nearly a cutoff low and just meanders out to sea.  

 

Lastly is the Euro.  It produces a storm, but it's moving offshore and is "just right" in terms of storm strength.  Strong enough to suppress the flow, but not too strong to swamp everything else.  Helpfully, also note how the northern stream and southern stream energy already is somewhat "phased" here (all the shortwaves are in line from Los Angeles all the way up to Manitoba).  

 

So what happens after?  Watch the dark green color, which in this case is the 552 dm height contour, and the light blue (534 dm height).  

GFS:  Look how close the ocean storm is to the surface reflection of our shortwave of interest (the L near Cleveland).  Light blue height level right through the Great Lakes.  The ocean storm hangs around and is very strong.  It suppresses the flow and gives our shortwave no room to amplify.  So we end up with a weak frontal passage.  

  

 

GGEM:  The storms have more spacing, the ocean low is weaker, and there's TOO MUCH room for our shortwave/storm to amplify.  Dark green height contour is well up into OH/PA/NYC. Result?  Cutter.  

 

Euro:  Now it's JUST RIGHT.  The ocean storm is nearly as strong as on the GFS, but it's farther OTS.  So it's suppressing the flow just enough (dark green contour is through VA), but not TOO MUCH.  Hence, our storm tracks farther south and it's bombs away.  And yes, the Euro is also good because it phases the northern and southern stream energy. But the storm track is important.  Phase the energy on the Euro, but have an ocean storm like on the GGEM and the thing cuts to Hudson Bay and we get warm rain.  

 

I think the GFS solution of a strong ocean storm that's close to shore is probably the last likely?  18z GFS was a small step toward a more Euro like outcome.  GGEM and Euro like outcomes for the ocean storm are more likely IMO, but that doesn't mean we get a big snowy coastal because that's also contingent on how and if the energy out west phases.  

Are you like, a met or something? This was good reading.

[Chris78]

Credit to @losetoa6 for posting this in the central PA forum but this would end up pretty good for us I do believe. 

Kind of builds off of what it showed at 12z.

[frd]

 

LOVE this animation posted by Griteater.  Pretty incredible to imagine the possibilities ahead.  

 

s