Yeoman Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Hour 00 to 240 your PBP stinks :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Euro at 500 starting at HR 150 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Gets to our latitude and gets kicked from all the shit behind it...maybe another? Yeah it kind of goes E or a hair north of due east off the coast. Had it stuck around or tucked that would have been a fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, that came out of nowhere. Unfortunately, not sure it's believable with all the shit flying around on every model with each different run. lol. 989 off the VA capes. Not really out of nowhere. That period from Fri-Sun keeps popping up in some fashion across the models. It’s there on the gefs too. We are gonna get a smedium sized event next weekend. Count in it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: your PBP stinks :p So does your avatar/profile pic choices 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I think the euro is correct with next weekend. Just switch the reds and the grays and it’ll be right. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 I’ll be happy once I don’t see the cat 5 hurricane off the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll be happy once I don’t see the cat 5 hurricane off the coast. Same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Yeoman said: your PBP stinks :p It's the Great Value / Walmart brand of pbp. Not bad and it'll do when the name brands aren't around. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Ji said: Very frustrating not seeing anything on the models 2 hours ago, Vice-Regent said: People got baited in by what I would describe as a faux kind of pattern where people thought we had a chance. Mountains and Maine can still cash in. 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Too late. 12z GFS is a total disaster. Boring for days followed by a monster storm that avoids DC before curving out to nail NYC and Boston. 1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said: Once the big players start coming onto the field they dredge up so much moisture and heat in the system. So far we have only dealt with northern stream systems and clipper-type stuff. 1 hour ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Looks like a nice and quiet stretch coming up. Should get through January without any drama and then the unofficial start to fishing season aka st Patrick's day is right around the corner!! -RSC So far these posts are aging well. Let’s follow them over the next few days. 2 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So far these posts are aging well. Let’s follow them over the next few days. More than half of those posts I wouldn’t have seen. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I can't see details on Euro, but it looked like it had 3 consecutive near hits in a row, if I see it correctly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Everyone bashing the MLK Friday/Saturday system. 12z Euro: I’m bout to pull a pro gamer move 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 WB 0Z EURO v. 12Z. Blend of the two is bingo Day 6-7. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Everyone bashing the MLK Friday/Saturday system. 12z Euro: I’m bout to pull a pro gamer move The trof axis is way to far east for our Lattitude. We need it to get out of the way or it's going to screw up the next few opportunities. If it's far enough west to hit New England it's going to screw us for later in the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I still wouldn't rest on the Friday- Sunday period. Look short vs long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Pretty nice looking LP cluster this far out 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: I still wouldn't rest on the Friday- Sunday period. Look short vs long Exactly. Gotta get rid of that bomb on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 12Z EPS through Day 7. Some good hits and some misses… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z EPS through Day 7. Some good hits and some misses… The overall snow mean for that timeframe clearly highlights the window that we've been given 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 One of the ways to tell a good pattern is coming up is by consistently getting fantasty-land chances on the OP runs, which keeps showing up on almost every model fun. This wasn’t happening last month (and it wasn’t even close). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 The best analysis I can give right now has to do with the people here and not the upcoming upper level setup... The "personality" on winter wx that showed up right before the Monday storm hasn't gone anywhere. Sneaky busy flow has the potential to go from apparent nothingness to wtf omg then back to nothingness and repeat ad nauseum in the mid-long range. Just let time pass and let it all happen until some sort of consensus shows up. We can easily get a big storm out of nowhere or have what seems to be a long track evaporate in a blink. We simply don't have the tech and tools yet to make real sense of the flow and shortwaves beyond 3-4 days in this regime. For me, all I care about is the "general idea" of busy flow with highs and lows in good enough places in the longwave pattern.. Then just pass time until one becomes "real". Sure doesn't look like a 1 and done small window to me. So if one fails, it doesn't matter nearly as much. Heck, maybe a fail becomes a beast 50/50. Not all fails are bad and multiple chances seem almost certain at this point. 20 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The best analysis I can give right now has to do with the people here and not the upcoming upper level setup... The "personality" on winter wx that showed up right before the Monday storm hasn't gone anywhere. Sneaky busy flow has the potential to go from apparent nothingness to wtf omg then back to nothingness and repeat ad nauseum in the mid-long range. Just let time pass and let it all happen until some sort of consensus shows up. We can easily get a big storm out of nowhere or have what seems to be a long track evaporate in a blink. We simply don't have the tech and tools yet to make real sense of the flow and shortwaves beyond 3-4 days in this regime. For me, all I care about is the "general idea" of busy flow with highs and lows in good enough places in the longwave pattern.. Then just pass time until one becomes "real". Sure doesn't look like a 1 and done small window to me. So if one fails, it doesn't matter nearly as much. Heck, maybe a fail becomes a beast 50/50. Not all fails are bad and multiple chances seem almost certain at this point. Good post. It’s pretty much where I’m at. It’s a lot of shit flying around and models prob won’t get key features right at long leads. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: The overall snow mean for that timeframe clearly highlights the window that we've been given This is pretty good signal, no? I mean it's 180 hours out but that is a hell of a lot closer than 280-384 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 The trough axis has been generally too far east on the model runs. However, there’s a difference between a miller B from a ns dominant system or clipper versus one where there’s a southern stream component involved (more of a hybrid). With the latter we can still score from overrunning prior to an epic dry slot. Hiking through gambrill/watershed yesterday (catoctin blue and knucklebuster for those familiar with the area) made me realize it doesn’t take much to turn things into winter here. It was pure powder. With that said, I’d accept a hecs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 32 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The trof axis is way to far east for our Lattitude. We need it to get out of the way or it's going to screw up the next few opportunities. If it's far enough west to hit New England it's going to screw us for later in the weekend. So if the Friday storm gets close to hitting it messes up another potential storm around Monday which has more potential? Just don’t really see a reason to root against a potential snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Bob's on the money, no surprise. I'll be checking in every day or two and not sweating it. The overall pattern is better than we've seen in a long while and I'm happy to be patient and wait for the stars (or jet ) to align in our favor. I honestly expected nothing more than a couple of small events this year given the La Nina, so I'm happy with whatever comes and pleasantly surprised we got some decent snow already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, nj2va said: One of the ways to tell a good pattern is coming up is by consistently getting fantasty-land chances on the OP runs, which keeps showing up on almost every model fun. This wasn’t happening last few years (and it wasn’t even close). Fixed, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 58 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Everyone bashing the MLK Friday/Saturday system. 12z Euro: I’m bout to pull a pro gamer move Don't worry - school will still be closed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Yeah - every run it's amazing to watch all the little vort pieces and such just screaming around the CONUS. Feels like a week where stuff is going to tease us on certain runs and be completely different on the next. Chaotic. I mentioned similar to luvr yesterday. We’re going to see big storms pop up on guidance and then disappear, only for others to pop up two runs later with the “new” threats being on completely different days. Someone is going to get smacked - maybe multiple times - before this runs its course. It could well be us or we could whiff completely (which I doubt), but the pattern is ripe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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