Kevin Reilly Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Pattern ahead Jan 14-28 certainly looks favorable for large storm development....somewhere. The only 2 cons I see looking ahead are 1) we've all been headfaked in years past with epic pattern looks that end up verifying for 12 hours then revert back to the sos. And 2) as has been the case much of Nov and Dec, the mean trof in the East (when it has had the opportunity to dig) has been on an axis just too far to the east. A few big fall storms and 2 Dec storms we missed out on because they were too far off the coast. Not suggesting this hasn't or won't change. Just haven't spent a ton of time salivating over the looks but rather cherry picking what could yield failure. In my older years I've found it wiser to ask what could go wrong or why won't this work as opposed to ens at range as gospel. Though it is nice to see agreement on the cold push. If we get the big cold push, I urge patience as we could be overwhelmed by Siberia and need patience waiting for things to relax before getting the big dog. Now with that said, let's find a way to luck our way into a KU before this month ends. Yep storm development too Far East to me would be the biggest worries you cannot go wrong with the lined up telleconnectors and MJO entering into phase 8. Location Location Location 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 40 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Eastern Maine seems like the place to be these next couple weeks. Yes! I will be in Downeast Maine just to the north or Portland in York Beach from 1/19-1/21 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 39 minutes ago, jviper said: This is reality. - “ 1) we've all been headfaked in years past with epic pattern looks that end up verifying for 12 hours then revert back to the sos“ It can def be our reality but make no mistake, we can also sit in a good stable setup for longer than models think. That 100% happens but heartbreaks are more memorable than good hemispheric patterns. We've had multiple periods in the past that are close to or exactly like what is being shown. One thing they all had in common is they had staying power. Even when lr models tried to break it all down. It's just been a while but that's how our cycles work. Hot streaks and cold streaks embedded into long time cycles. Based on the last week, we are prob already on a hot streak. Sure, fail is always an option but the entire reason this place exists in the first place is to experience a hot streak with a good longwave setup. Don't let recency fail bias cloud your thoughts this time. It truly is different... finaly... At least in the upper levels. Snowfall is more predicated on chaos and luck from here 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 It's trying 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 I have a feeling today is gonna be entertaining in this thread. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: To be honest, I'd trade a lone 3 foot blizzard for several 6" - 10" events and normal/below normal temps. Getting on big storm and watching it melt in 5 days is boring. Let's get and maintain a snowpack for once. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I'll try to make a more thorough post later, but as best as I can see, we want that ocean storm to stay offshore and try and act somewhat like a 50/50 storm to suppress the flow and force the storm for next weekend under us. Too strong and west and it will crush that subsequent storm. Too weak and OTS and that storm may cut. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: It's trying Would love to see a 01/25/2000 redux! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'll try to make a more thorough post later, but as best as I can see, we want that ocean storm to stay offshore and try and act somewhat like a 50/50 storm to suppress the flow and force the storm for next weekend under us. Too strong and west and it will crush that subsequent storm. Too weak and OTS and that storm may cut. Yea it seems like we want to "sacrifice" this storm to set the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'll try to make a more thorough post later, but as best as I can see, we want that ocean storm to stay offshore and try and act somewhat like a 50/50 storm to suppress the flow and force the storm for next weekend under us. Too strong and west and it will crush that subsequent storm. Too weak and OTS and that storm may cut. Exactly my thinking when I posted last night. A cat 5 just east of us will not only do us no good, but it will kill anything behind it for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 57 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: To be honest, I'd trade a lone 3 foot blizzard for several 6" - 10" events and normal/below normal temps. Getting on big storm and watching it melt in 5 days is boring. Let's get and maintain a snowpack for once. I'd trade a 3-foot blizzard for nothing. That's once in a lifetime stuff. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: I'd trade a 3-foot blizzard for nothing. That's once in a lifetime stuff. I can see the appeal, but the argument that I was making is that big storms seem to kick good patterns out of the area faster. Take a look at Jan 2016. Solid event, but 3 days later we're roasting and the snow is melting off fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: It's trying Pretty sure we can look beyond that one to after MLK weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'll try to make a more thorough post later, but as best as I can see, we want that ocean storm to stay offshore and try and act somewhat like a 50/50 storm to suppress the flow and force the storm for next weekend under us. Too strong and west and it will crush that subsequent storm. Too weak and OTS and that storm may cut. Yes. This. People rooting for the Friday /Saturday thing are focusing on the wrong storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Yes. This. People rooting for the Friday /Saturday thing are focusing on the wrong storm. Actually I think it's a bit of confusion since the second one is still technically on MLK weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'll try to make a more thorough post later, but as best as I can see, we want that ocean storm to stay offshore and try and act somewhat like a 50/50 storm to suppress the flow and force the storm for next weekend under us. Too strong and west and it will crush that subsequent storm. Too weak and OTS and that storm may cut. Sounds too needle thready... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Very frustrating not seeing anything on the models 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 People got baited in by what I would describe as a faux kind of pattern where people thought we had a chance. Mountains and Maine can still cash in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'll try to make a more thorough post later, but as best as I can see, we want that ocean storm to stay offshore and try and act somewhat like a 50/50 storm to suppress the flow and force the storm for next weekend under us. Too strong and west and it will crush that subsequent storm. Too weak and OTS and that storm may cut. Are you saying that there is no way that the ocean storm could give us a decent hit? Isn't that a robust enough of a HP to keep the cold air supplied to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just now, Wonderdog said: Are you saying that there is no way that the ocean storm could give us a decent hit? Isn't that a robust enough of a HP to keep the cold air supplied to us? Any additional amping of the flow will cause it to cutoff or cut through the interior CONUS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS says be patient. No storms through Friday. Nice fish storm there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, chris21 said: While very true, this pattern has already dropped ten inches of snow on dc one week into January. Different pattern. This 'transition has done us well. But there are no guarantees in the LR. Personally I think I would have rolled the dice with the certainty and kept the pattern. Hoping the big change pans out mid month and does everyone well in the snow dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 maybe hot take: idgaf about a potential window setting up a block. getting a storm > setting up a block for a future fantasy storm That said, Friday's storm looks pretty toast on all the ens. Weirder things could and have happened, IG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 My advice is not to sweat every 6 hour operational run yet for next weekend’s potential. WB 6Z GFS v. 12Z GFS makes the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 29 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Yes. This. People rooting for the Friday /Saturday thing are focusing on the wrong storm. The Friday system I’m interested in is not the storm out in the ocean. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I can see the appeal, but the argument that I was making is that big storms seem to kick good patterns out of the area faster. Take a look at Jan 2016. Solid event, but 3 days later we're roasting and the snow is melting off fast. From a hobby perspective, 2013-14 will always be my favorite tracking winter unless it gets topped at some point. That year it all. Ice, snow, bay freeze, below zero, acceptable to exceptional snow totals each month from dec-bitter end of march, multiple types of events from all angles and dangles. I literally got sick of tracking in late March. Never thought it was possible. For that reason alone, it's my personal holy grail year of winter wx tracking in the mid atl. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: My advice is not to sweat every 6 hour operational run yet for next weekend’s potential. WB 6Z GFS v. 12Z GFS makes the point. Too late. 12z GFS is a total disaster. Boring for days followed by a monster storm that avoids DC before curving out to nail NYC and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: People got baited in by what I would describe as a faux kind of pattern where people thought we had a chance. Mountains and Maine can still cash in. Giving up on a pattern thats 7+ days away is just as ignorant as locking in on a great looking pattern from the mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Too late. 12z GFS is a total disaster. Boring for days followed by a monster storm that avoids DC before curving out to nail NYC and Boston. Toss it. We are going to be tracking something soon. I can feel it. Maybe not a BECS though, but something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: Giving up on a pattern thats 7+ days away is just as ignorant as locking in on a great looking pattern from the mid to long range. Living close to this ocean gives you perspective. That's where your SE ridge comes from and AGW shows up first in the ocean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now