January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m sorry 

One thing i kept on insisting on that you cleared up was that 01-02 was a nina. Seems like neutral is our worst winter although logically they should be average lol

One of the biggest climo changes have been enso neutral years. Prior to 1982 they were often good. They were the next best to moderate ninos. But since 1982 they have been atrocious and the worst of all enso.  I’ve not done any research into why the change happened. Whether it’s warming related or some other change. But it’s a large enough sample size over a long enough time period to say it’s real and not a fluke.  Neutrals have become awful most of the time and that fact is responsible for most of the snow climo change. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Writing up new rules now and will include a new ban-able offense:  mentioning that storm or March 2001

[pazzo83]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Writing up new rules now and will include a new ban-able offense:  mentioning that storm or March 2001

March '01 is triggering.

[Fozz]

I just missed the boat on March 2001, and wasn’t really following weather back then. Thank God for that, I would’ve been heartbroken and probably in tears. 
 

For me December 2010 was the most painful bust/screwjob ever.

[pazzo83]

4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I just missed the boat on March 2001, and wasn’t really following weather back then. Thank God for that, I would’ve been heartbroken and probably in tears. 
 

For me December 2010 was the most painful bust/screwjob ever.

In March 01, we were forecast to get 2-3 FEET.  Got NOTHING.  I will never forget it.

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

In March 01, we were forecast to get 2-3 FEET.  Got NOTHING.  I will never forget it.

Yeah I’ve heard. Sounds revolting to me. I’m assuming you were in SW VA back then. How long did it take for it to all fall apart and become nothing?

[pazzo83]

22 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yeah I’ve heard. Sounds revolting to me. I’m assuming you were in SW VA back then. How long did it take for it to all fall apart and become nothing?

i don't recall everything - i just remember being at this party (I was a junior in high school) where we were all staying at someone's house overnight, and then the next morning it was just drizzly.  I think I found WWBB shortly thereafter as a place to vent lol.

[Maestrobjwa]

Glad I don't remember March 2001. My first painful memory of a miss...was when it was supposed to be snowing when I woke up (on a Saturday), and it was clear blue skies instead, lol I cannot remember the year but it had to be in the early 2000s

[weathercoins]

14 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

i don't recall everything - i just remember being at this party (I was a junior in high school) where we were all staying at someone's house overnight, and then the next morning it was just drizzly.  I think I found WWBB shortly thereafter as a place to vent lol.

Snow maps got progressively but quickly smaller and smaller until TWC had us in the 3-6” range.  I thought “okay at least it’s something” and then didn’t even get that…

[yoda]

44 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

March '01 is triggering.

*shudders violently*

38 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I just missed the boat on March 2001, and wasn’t really following weather back then. Thank God for that, I would’ve been heartbroken and probably in tears. 
 

For me December 2010 was the most painful bust/screwjob ever.

I was in HS at the time and had really gotten into weather few years prior.  Wasn't on weather boards yet.  I remember hearing the forecast as pazzo said.  I was telling my classmates and teachers we were going to get crushed with snow and don't worry about doing your homework.

Woke up, green grass and yeah.  Remember trying to get out of going to school because I didn't want to deal with everyone lol

[Fozz]

14 minutes ago, yoda said:

*shudders violently*

I was in HS at the time and had really gotten into weather few years prior.  Wasn't on weather boards yet.  I remember hearing the forecast as pazzo said.  I was telling my classmates and teachers we were going to get crushed with snow and don't worry about doing your homework.

Woke up, green grass and yeah.  Remember trying to get out of going to school because I didn't want to deal with everyone lol

That is devastating. You probably felt a bit like John Bolaris that day.
 

I think I had just a vague enough memory to realize throughout middle and high school that you should never ditch your homework just because you think you’ll get a snow day.

[Fozz]

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Glad I don't remember March 2001. My first painful memory of a miss...was when it was supposed to be snowing when I woke up (on a Saturday), and it was clear blue skies instead, lol I cannot remember the year but it had to be in the early 2000s

I think that was December 30, 2000. I don’t remember that one very well either, but I was told it was supposed to be a big one, something like 8-12”. And then it was not even a single flake.

Same winter as March 2001, so a lot of heartbreak that year.

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

I think that was December 30, 2000.

Same winter as March 2001 and a few months earlier. I was told that was supposed to be a big one, something like 8-12”.

Heavy snow warning for 6-10. Horrible bust. Personally I had a bad feeling about this one hours before it was obvious to the on air mets this would bust. You could clearly see how things were not coming together by late evening. Radar returns were developing well offshore and heading due north towards New York and New England. Philadelphia was just far enough east to get in on good snow totals as well. Ravens beat Denver in the first round of the playoffs under clear cold skies on the road to their first Superbowl victory.  

[midatlanticweather]

That and boxing day disasters are just awful to talk about. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Wooo boy...this has a psychiatric day for the books. We go from the discussion this morning to memories of disappointment tonight. All colors of the forum on full display, lol

[Chase]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wooo boy...this has a psychiatric day for the books. We go from the discussion this morning to memories of disappointment tonight. All colors of the forum on full display, lol

‘Twas the night before our snowpack melts and all through the house…

[SnowenOutThere]

0z GFS with an 384 hour monster.

[TowsonWeather]

1 hour ago, Chase said:

‘Twas the night before our snowpack melts and all through the house…

‘Twas the night before Bustmas, when all through the forum,
Not a poster was stirring—there was short-lived decorum.
The models were hung by the chimney with care,
In hopes that Bob Chill himself soon would be there;
The posters were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of MECS and HECS danced in their heads;
And mappy in her 'kerchief, and I in my cap,
Had just settled down for a long winter's nap,
When all ‘cross the site there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.
Away to the laptop I flew like a flash,
Tore open the cover and refreshed my cache.
The light on the page of the brightly-lit screen,
Gave new lustre to ravensrule’s posts (though obscene). 
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a miniature sleigh, and eight tiny reindeer,
With a little old poster, so wise and so still.
I knew in a moment it must be St. Chill.
More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name;
"Now, Mattie! now, Tracker! now, Psuhoffman,
On, Fozz! on Ji! on, Leesburg, and Ian.
To the top of the page! The GFS has us buried!
Now post away! post away! post away, merry!
As dendrites that before the wild nor’wester fly,
When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky,
So up to the regional forum they flew,
With a sleigh full of snow maps, and new EURO runs, too.
And then, in a twinkling, I saw that he’d posted.
With humor and insight (and blizzards he’d toasted).
As I clicked on his name, and was turning around,
Down the chimney Bob Chill himself came with a bound.
He was dressed all in white, from his head to his foot,
And his clothes were all tarnished with ashes and soot;
A six pack of beers he had flung on his back,
And he looked like a peddler just opening his pack.
His eyes -- how they twinkled! his dimples how merry!
His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry!
His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,
And the beard of his chin was as white as the snow;
The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth,
And the smoke it encircled his head like a wreath;
He had a broad face and a little round belly,
That shook, when he laughed like a bowlful of jelly.
He was chubby and plump, a right jolly old weenie,
And I laughed when I saw him, and sipped my martini.
A wink of his eye and a click of his mouse,
Soon gave me to know there’d be snow at my house.
He spoke not a word, but went straight to his task,
Posting maps all in pink; and then turned with a gasp.
And laying his finger aside of his nose,
And giving a nod, up the chimney he rose;
He sprang to his sleigh, to his team gave a whistle,
And away they all flew like the down of a thistle.
But I heard him exclaim, as I stood there awestruck:
“HAPPY KUs TO ALL, AND OH YEAH: SHUT UP, CHUCK!”
 

[psuhoffman]

My first two busts were Jan 1987 and Feb 1989 in south Jersey. 1987 they were saying 1-3” changing to rain. Woke up to a couple inches and heavy snow and was excited but KYW radio said it was about to change to rain and school wasn’t even delayed. While at school watched it continue to snow and snow and snow. Around noon they decided to send us home but by then it was a mess and took hours. It was dark by the time I got home. We ended up with about 10”. It did eventually end as some drizzle lol. 
 

Feb 89 was awful. Supposed to get a blizzard. 1-2 feet. Went to bed expecting 4-8” by morning. Woke up to sunshine and wind. Atlantic City 40 miles away for 20” and nothing where I was. Storm had a sharp edge and set up 50 miles east of expected. 

[Ji]

Euro looks wild at least

[Cobalt]

Pretty nice LP mean this far out. Would be more favorable if there wasn't a cluster suggesting the primary takes a route through northern IL, but there's also a (smaller) cluster suggesting the primary tracks through Kentucky. More to be desired but bears watching

 

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Pretty nice LP mean this far out. Would be more favorable if there wasn't a cluster suggesting the primary takes a route through northern IL, but there's also a (smaller) cluster suggesting the primary tracks through Kentucky. More to be desired but bears watching

Snow mean responds pretty positively to this, with some big hits mixed in.

I was trying to find if there was any relation between the offshore D5 system and encouraging a more favorable track for our threat (in the circumstance where that D5 storm strengthened while also approaching 50/50 domain and acting as pseudo 50/50 low), but it's hard to view both LPs using the individual member WxBell maps so I gave up on that. 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS….with some luck we are still on track to enter into a cold and snowy period In mid to late January.   I say some luck because the control, not shown,  is the bust scenario.

[Jebman]

Keep on tracking it, keep on believing in it, its gonna evolve for you all!

It just wants to snow in the Mid Atlantic! Old Man Winter said To hell with the Nina! It's STILL going to be a fierce, frigid, very very snowy winter in the Mid Atlantic this winter!

 

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wooo boy...this has a psychiatric day for the books. We go from the discussion this morning to memories of disappointment tonight. All colors of the forum on full display, lol

The only color that matters is the beautiful blue white of deep snow in the Mid Atlantic. I've been long tellin you you were gonna get annihilated by snow. You got more, A LOT MORE comin this winter!

[brooklynwx99]

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL:

This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why:

 

Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. 

The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms.

There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past.

Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

[Eskimo Joe]

@brooklynwx99 with the early morning dirty talk. 

[nj2va]

Great post to read over my coffee this morning, thanks @brooklynwx99

[Ji]

[mention=9996]brooklynwx99[/mention] with the early morning dirty talk. 

Yep. Sounds exactly like what psu said

[Chris78]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS….with some luck we are still on track to enter into a cold and snowy period In mid to late January.   I say some luck because the control, not shown,  is the bust scenario.

You know it's getting serious win WW breaks out the 6" probability maps.