January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The threat window opens +/- Friday IMO. And gets better most likely as we move into the following week. But there’s a ton of shortwaves flying around and the track of any storm is contingent on the conditions prepared by the previous wave. I think it’s possible by Tuesday that we might know if we’re in the game for something in the Friday-Sunday period. Anything after that will take longer. Don’t get too beholden too any individual Op scenario until a storm is within 72-96 hours at most.

Ok thanks, from the way I read winterwxluvr’s post I thought he might mean we have some threats this work week. Thanks for clearing that confusion up.

[psuhoffman]

I know this is long but I’m pretty busy this weekend so this is my one deep analysis contribution for the weekend  

But first man that was some epic entertainment in here earlier.  Vice hiatus is a tool but at least he unites us!  And Ji is a classic. It’s like dry satire. You have to be a certain way to appreciate it. I know I’m weird but I would miss him. 

As for the pattern coming, it’s like someone gave me the crayons.  But first I wanted to clear up a misconception. Nina’s aren’t that bad. Or I guess what I should say is they aren’t any worse than what EVERY winter is with the exception of the very rare moderate or modoki ninos.  The fact is those skew our winters. Everything else is some version of bad on avg. 

I used BWI for this because DCA sucks and I hate looking at their data it’s depressing. I think BWI is more indicative of more people. If someone else wants to run the numbers for DCA go ahead.  

The last 12 Nina’s at BWI had an avg snowfall of 16.7” with 2 above avg and 5 single digit years. Yea that’s not good. But get this…

The last 12 enso neutral winters had an avg of 13.9” with 2 above avg and 5 single digits!  Nina’s we’re significantly better!  

And even crazier the last 12 non modoki or moderate ninos had an avg of 15.7 with 2 above and 4 single digits.  Nina’s we’re even slightly better than all non modoki moderate ninos!!!!!

There have been 7 modoki or moderate ninos since 1960 and they were all above average snow with a mean of 45.4”!  

So basically we want a moderate or modoki Nino.  Those are almost all blockbusters!  But that’s 7 out of 60 years!!!  Of all the rest Nina’s are actually the best option!  They all give us about a 17% chance it an above avg snow year but Nina’s have the highest mean snowfall of all the other options.  Yea Nina’s are crappy usually.  And so are neutrals and weak or strong ninos!  But every once in a while (17%) a fluke snowy winter happens in a year other than a mod modoki nino and we just take it and be grateful.  

Now I want to post the mean Nina h5 again. 

I wanted this up for comparisons sake. I want to contrast our typical issues in a nina that prevent a snowy winter 83% of the time with what I’m seeing. Note the dominant features. Central pac ridge. But often that ridge does get far enough east to not be a huge problem. Note the mean trough position is central not west. That’s a mean from two different Nina pattern as I discussed with griteater the other day. When the pac ridge extends poleward or there is blocking typically the trough is actually east of that mean and into the east. When the pac ridge is flat or the AO positive it’s west and the trough is out west with a big east ridge.  It’s “variable” is what I’m saying.  Temps actually avg colder in Nina’s than neutral or strong Nino winters!  

The real problem is what you see across the south.  Note the higher heights across east from that pac ridge through the southern US. That’s indicative that there is no stj. If any systems were running through there you would see lower pressures not higher. That’s the typical problem. We really do need some stj involvement.  We’re usually too far south to get much from pure NS systems and too far west for late developing NS induced coastals. 
 

The last two snows had southern influencE!  Very un Nina like. The first was almost all southern stream moisture. I guess technically a mid latitude SW dug enough to cut off and tap the STJ but I don’t care about that level of detail. Point is the gulf was open for business. This last system wasn’t a total fail because of the influx of gulf moisture. The late developing miller b coastal was a miss. But we were saved the typical miller b disaster by the fact it was a hybrid with some gulf involvement. 

Now look at this 18z gefs mean for next weekend. 

This isn’t crazy far out.  One week away.  The ensembles have been good inside day 10 with the longwave patterns and the eps and geps agree.  
 

Aleutian trough pumping an epo ridge.  Lower heights from the pac across the south indicating an active stj Ridging across the top.  And the best part is the drivers that lead to this are in motion now.  The SOI is tanking now.  The pacific jet retraction starts in a few days.  

Now why I and others are so encouraged.  This looks like a Nino!  This is the comp mean of those 7 really good Nino years. 

Look at the similarities in the hemispheric longwave pattern coming up.  I have no idea why this Nina isn’t behaving like a typical Nina. It wasn’t really when we had a -5 pna either. That’s more typically a enso neutral thing actually. I also have no idea why it’s starting to line up like a Nino now either.  Someone smarter than me can dig into hat.  We had a Nino that acted like a Nina a few years ago. Maybe enso isn’t what it used to be. Or maybe this is the 17%. I don’t know. I don’t care. It’s cold. It’s snowing. The pattern ahead looks great. I’m not kicking a gift horse in the mouth. And Vice Hiatus can suck it.  

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Time to cancel winter.  No blizzard this run.

It ain’t over until the MRF/NOGAPS team weighs in. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

45 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I’m watching news and radar videos of 2016… God, I hope this pattern gives us the unicorn we are looking for.

I’d much rather have several events like Thursday than have one big storm.

[snowmagnet]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know this is long but I’m pretty busy this weekend so this is my one deep analysis contribution for the weekend  

But first man that was some epic entertainment in here earlier.  Vice hiatus is a tool but at least he unites us!  And Ji is a classic. It’s like dry satire. You have to be a certain way to appreciate it. I know I’m weird but I would miss him. 

As for the pattern coming, it’s like someone gave me the crayons.  But first I wanted to clear up a misconception. Nina’s aren’t that bad. Or I guess what I should say is they aren’t any worse than what EVERY winter is with the exception of the very rare moderate or modoki ninos.  The fact is those skew our winters. Everything else is some version of bad on avg. 

I used BWI for this because DCA sucks and I hate looking at their data it’s depressing. I think BWI is more indicative of more people. If someone else wants to run the numbers for DCA go ahead.  

The last 12 Nina’s at BWI had an avg snowfall of 16.7” with 2 above avg and 5 single digit years. Yea that’s not good. But get this…

The last 12 enso neutral winters had an avg of 13.9” with 2 above avg and 5 single digits!  Nina’s we’re significantly better!  

And even crazier the last 12 non modoki or moderate ninos had an avg of 15.7 with 2 above and 4 single digits.  Nina’s we’re even slightly better than all non modoki moderate ninos!!!!!

There have been 7 modoki or moderate ninos since 1960 and they were all above average snow with a mean of 45.4”!  

So basically we want a moderate or modoki Nino.  Those are almost all blockbusters!  But that’s 7 out of 60 years!!!  Of all the rest Nina’s are actually the best option!  They all give us about a 17% chance it an above avg snow year but Nina’s have the highest mean snowfall of all the other options.  Yea Nina’s are crappy usually.  And so are neutrals and weak or strong ninos!  But every once in a while (17%) a fluke snowy winter happens in a year other than a mod modoki nino and we just take it and be grateful.  

Now I want to post the mean Nina h5 again. 

I wanted this up for comparisons sake. I want to contrast our typical issues in a nina that prevent a snowy winter 83% of the time with what I’m seeing. Note the dominant features. Central pac ridge. But often that ridge does get far enough east to not be a huge problem. Note the mean trough position is central not west. That’s a mean from two different Nina pattern as I discussed with griteater the other day. When the pac ridge extends poleward or there is blocking typically the trough is actually east of that mean and into the east. When the pac ridge is flat or the AO positive it’s west and the trough is out west with a big east ridge.  It’s “variable” is what I’m saying.  Temps actually avg colder in Nina’s than neutral or strong Nino winters!  

The real problem is what you see across the south.  Note the higher heights across east from that pac ridge through the southern US. That’s indicative that there is no stj. If any systems were running through there you would see lower pressures not higher. That’s the typical problem. We really do need some stj involvement.  We’re usually too far south to get much from pure NS systems and too far west for late developing NS induced coastals. 
 

The last two snows had southern influencE!  Very un Nina like. The first was almost all southern stream moisture. I guess technically a mid latitude SW dug enough to cut off and tap the STJ but I don’t care about that level of detail. Point is the gulf was open for business. This last system wasn’t a total fail because of the influx of gulf moisture. The late developing miller b coastal was a miss. But we were saved the typical miller b disaster by the fact it was a hybrid with some gulf involvement. 

Now look at this 18z gefs mean for next weekend. 

This isn’t crazy far out.  One week away.  The ensembles have been good inside day 10 with the longwave patterns and the eps and geps agree.  
 

Aleutian trough pumping an epo ridge.  Lower heights from the pac across the south indicating an active stj Ridging across the top.  And the best part is the drivers that lead to this are in motion now.  The SOI is tanking now.  The pacific jet retraction starts in a few days.  

Now why I and others are so encouraged.  This looks like a Nino!  This is the comp mean of those 7 really good Nino years. 

Look at the similarities in the hemispheric longwave pattern coming up.  I have no idea why this Nina isn’t behaving like a typical Nina. It wasn’t really when we had a -5 pna either. That’s more typically a enso neutral thing actually. I also have no idea why it’s starting to line up like a Nino now either.  Someone smarter than me can dig into hat.  We had a Nino that acted like a Nina a few years ago. Maybe enso isn’t what it used to be. Or maybe this is the 17%. I don’t know. I don’t care. It’s cold. It’s snowing. The pattern ahead looks great. I’m not kicking a gift horse in the mouth. And Vice Hiatus can suck it.  

Thanks for these details.  I don't understand half of it, but I'm trying to learn.  I remember hearing that we were heading into a Modaki El Nino last year (or maybe 2 years ago---it's all a blur), but either it was too late in the season, or it didn't pan out.  I don't know.  I wasn't excited about this year since it was La Nina, but our El Nino didn't work out well the past 2 years either.  So maybe it is just all luck. 

I do have a question about the Pacific Jet.  I know that the Pac has been a huge problem for us during the past few years.  However, I haven't really heard it mentioned this year.  Is it not "raging" like the past couple of years? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

23 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ok thanks, from the way I read winterwxluvr’s post I thought he might mean we have some threats this work week. Thanks for clearing that confusion up.

I think Friday forward is when there are possibilities. I won’t look beyond the upcoming weekend.

[clskinsfan]

9 hours ago, SnowCane said:

Wow I really did learn a lot from that video, thanks for sharing. He’s a lot better teacher than I ever would have suspected after following his Twitter for the last year. 

I am almost convinced DT is Vice Regent. 

[Jersey Andrew]

Climate change has to be playing a significant role. How many blockbuster snowstorms from 2006 onward up and down the Northeast? I would be interested in any comparisons to 1995-1996 winter which also flipped like a switch in early January after a warm November and December.

[chris21]

1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Climate change has to be playing a significant role. How many blockbuster snowstorms from 2006 onward up and down the Northeast? I would be interested in any comparisons to 1995-1996 winter which also flipped like a switch in early January after a warm November and December.

Nov/Dec 95 were relatively cold as well.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Climate change has to be playing a significant role. How many blockbuster snowstorms from 2006 onward up and down the Northeast? I would be interested in any comparisons to 1995-1996 winter which also flipped like a switch in early January after a warm November and December.

I think nov-dec 95 were cold

Eta:  by @chris21

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Climate change has to be playing a significant role. How many blockbuster snowstorms from 2006 onward up and down the Northeast? I would be interested in any comparisons to 1995-1996 winter which also flipped like a switch in early January after a warm November and December.

I don’t remember Nov and Dec of 95 being warm. In fact, in swva December was very cold and snowy.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Thanks for these details.  I don't understand half of it, but I'm trying to learn.  I remember hearing that we were heading into a Modaki El Nino last year (or maybe 2 years ago---it's all a blur), but either it was too late in the season, or it didn't pan out.  I don't know.  I wasn't excited about this year since it was La Nina, but our El Nino didn't work out well the past 2 years either.  So maybe it is just all luck. 

I do have a question about the Pacific Jet.  I know that the Pac has been a huge problem for us during the past few years.  However, I haven't really heard it mentioned this year.  It is not "raging" like the past couple of years? 

2019 was more a basin wide weak Nino. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Thanks for these details.  I don't understand half of it, but I'm trying to learn.  I remember hearing that we were heading into a Modaki El Nino last year (or maybe 2 years ago---it's all a blur), but either it was too late in the season, or it didn't pan out.  I don't know.  I wasn't excited about this year since it was La Nina, but our El Nino didn't work out well the past 2 years either.  So maybe it is just all luck. 

I do have a question about the Pacific Jet.  I know that the Pac has been a huge problem for us during the past few years.  However, I haven't really heard it mentioned this year.  It is not "raging" like the past couple of years? 

Wrt the pac jet, it’s been buckling, amplifying, and varying which is a big welcome change. It’s still been generally averaging stronger than normal more often than not when I check but it’s not been this straight across blast of pac puke into N America 

[WinterWxLuvr]

This says it all. There is a huge reservoir of cold air. That’s probably gonna be hard to dislodge. This could be a long stretch of good opportunity.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This says it all. There is a huge reservoir of cold air. That’s probably gonna be hard to dislodge. This could be a long stretch of good opportunity.

At last a legit cold air source again!!! Man I was starting to wonder if we could still get that...been awhile!

[WinterWxLuvr]

Look at it at 384. Stout and stable

[WxUSAF]

36 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ok thanks, from the way I read winterwxluvr’s post I thought he might mean we have some threats this work week. Thanks for clearing that confusion up.

There’s maybe an outside chance at something light with the warm front around Wednesday/Thursday.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This says it all. There is a huge reservoir of cold air. That’s probably gonna be hard to dislodge. This could be a long stretch of good opportunity.

Yes. And look at how that cold air is being dumped into the CONUS. You have a literal polar express straight out of Siberia. I am a little concerned about the possibility of the PV getting pushed south and us going very cold and dry. But that is something we cant possibly know in the long range. The only thing that seems pretty certain is we are going to be unseasonably cold for the second half of January. 

[Weather Will]

I thought this Friday would be too soon, but WB 12Z to 18Z EPS interesting shift, let’s see if the trend continues…

[snowmagnet]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wrt the pac jet, it’s been buckling, amplifying, and varying which is a big welcome change. It’s still been generally averaging stronger than normal more often than not when I check but it’s not been this straight across blast of pac puke into N America 

That is very encouraging. I know that pac has been a huge problem for us for quite a while!

[clskinsfan]

Great post PSU. It is amazing how you can make my comment from just a few minutes before you seem quite worthless in comparison.

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

That is very encouraging. I know that pac has been a huge problem for us for quite a while!

The Pac base state has been hostile for either the last 5 or 6 winters so its nice to see that take a vacation, hopefully an extended one.  If I remember correctly, the Pac jet relaxed somewhat in early/mid Feb of last year and lo and behold there was the historic plains cold outbreak of 2021.  Now obviously we didn't get the cold that time, but the point is the Pac jet will just leave us alone, we can still sometimes get cold in this hemisphere.

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Great post PSU. It is amazing how you can make my comment from just a few minutes before you seem quite worthless in comparison.

If those are the kinds of posts he puts out when he is busy I'd hate to see what he does when he has time on his hands.

[poolz1]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I thought this Friday would be too soon, but WB 12Z to 18Z EPS interesting shift, let’s see if the trend continues…

As long as it doesn't real us in and turn into another Boxin....

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think our best hope is to hope that monster storm doesn’t happen and opens the door to that system trying to scoot across the center of the country like the gfs showed yesterday at 12z

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Great post PSU. It is amazing how you can make my comment from just a few minutes before you seem quite worthless in comparison.

I’m sorry 

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

As long as it doesn't real us in and turn into another Boxin....

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

As long as it doesn't real us in and turn into another Boxin....

Oh, you mean the Voldemort Storm (Dec 2010)...the "storm which shall not be named!" 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Now why I and others are so encouraged.  This looks like a Nino!  This is the comp mean of those 7 really good Nino years. 

Look at the similarities in the hemispheric longwave pattern coming up.  I have no idea why this Nina isn’t behaving like a typical Nina. It wasn’t really when we had a -5 pna either. That’s more typically a enso neutral thing actually. I also have no idea why it’s starting to line up like a Nino now either.  Someone smarter than me can dig into hat.  We had a Nino that acted like a Nina a few years ago. Maybe enso isn’t what it used to be. Or maybe this is the 17%. I don’t know. I don’t care. It’s cold. It’s snowing. The pattern ahead looks great. I’m not kicking a gift horse in the mouth. And Vice Hiatus can suck it.  

If I were to sum up this post for someone who didn’t want to read it, this is how I’d do it:

Modoki and moderate Ninos are very good around here. This is what PSU’s analysis shows about the height anamolies for those years.

It’s INSANE that a Nina is showing a progged pattern that literally mirrors the average height anomalies of those best Nino years. This is why people are excited by the potential (remember…it’s just potential!) of the upcoming period.

Fantasic post, PSU!

[Ji]

I’m sorry 

One thing i kept on insisting on that you cleared up was that 01-02 was a nina. Seems like neutral is our worst winter although logically they should be average lol