psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Thanks for these details. I don't understand half of it, but I'm trying to learn. I remember hearing that we were heading into a Modaki El Nino last year (or maybe 2 years ago---it's all a blur), but either it was too late in the season, or it didn't pan out. I don't know. I wasn't excited about this year since it was La Nina, but our El Nino didn't work out well the past 2 years either. So maybe it is just all luck. I do have a question about the Pacific Jet. I know that the Pac has been a huge problem for us during the past few years. However, I haven't really heard it mentioned this year. It is not "raging" like the past couple of years? 2019 was more a basin wide weak Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Thanks for these details. I don't understand half of it, but I'm trying to learn. I remember hearing that we were heading into a Modaki El Nino last year (or maybe 2 years ago---it's all a blur), but either it was too late in the season, or it didn't pan out. I don't know. I wasn't excited about this year since it was La Nina, but our El Nino didn't work out well the past 2 years either. So maybe it is just all luck. I do have a question about the Pacific Jet. I know that the Pac has been a huge problem for us during the past few years. However, I haven't really heard it mentioned this year. It is not "raging" like the past couple of years? Wrt the pac jet, it’s been buckling, amplifying, and varying which is a big welcome change. It’s still been generally averaging stronger than normal more often than not when I check but it’s not been this straight across blast of pac puke into N America 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 This says it all. There is a huge reservoir of cold air. That’s probably gonna be hard to dislodge. This could be a long stretch of good opportunity. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This says it all. There is a huge reservoir of cold air. That’s probably gonna be hard to dislodge. This could be a long stretch of good opportunity. At last a legit cold air source again!!! Man I was starting to wonder if we could still get that...been awhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 Look at it at 384. Stout and stable 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 36 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Ok thanks, from the way I read winterwxluvr’s post I thought he might mean we have some threats this work week. Thanks for clearing that confusion up. There’s maybe an outside chance at something light with the warm front around Wednesday/Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This says it all. There is a huge reservoir of cold air. That’s probably gonna be hard to dislodge. This could be a long stretch of good opportunity. Yes. And look at how that cold air is being dumped into the CONUS. You have a literal polar express straight out of Siberia. I am a little concerned about the possibility of the PV getting pushed south and us going very cold and dry. But that is something we cant possibly know in the long range. The only thing that seems pretty certain is we are going to be unseasonably cold for the second half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I thought this Friday would be too soon, but WB 12Z to 18Z EPS interesting shift, let’s see if the trend continues… 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wrt the pac jet, it’s been buckling, amplifying, and varying which is a big welcome change. It’s still been generally averaging stronger than normal more often than not when I check but it’s not been this straight across blast of pac puke into N America That is very encouraging. I know that pac has been a huge problem for us for quite a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Great post PSU. It is amazing how you can make my comment from just a few minutes before you seem quite worthless in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: That is very encouraging. I know that pac has been a huge problem for us for quite a while! The Pac base state has been hostile for either the last 5 or 6 winters so its nice to see that take a vacation, hopefully an extended one. If I remember correctly, the Pac jet relaxed somewhat in early/mid Feb of last year and lo and behold there was the historic plains cold outbreak of 2021. Now obviously we didn't get the cold that time, but the point is the Pac jet will just leave us alone, we can still sometimes get cold in this hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Great post PSU. It is amazing how you can make my comment from just a few minutes before you seem quite worthless in comparison. If those are the kinds of posts he puts out when he is busy I'd hate to see what he does when he has time on his hands. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I thought this Friday would be too soon, but WB 12Z to 18Z EPS interesting shift, let’s see if the trend continues… As long as it doesn't real us in and turn into another Boxin.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 I think our best hope is to hope that monster storm doesn’t happen and opens the door to that system trying to scoot across the center of the country like the gfs showed yesterday at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Great post PSU. It is amazing how you can make my comment from just a few minutes before you seem quite worthless in comparison. I’m sorry 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: As long as it doesn't real us in and turn into another Boxin.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, poolz1 said: As long as it doesn't real us in and turn into another Boxin.... Oh, you mean the Voldemort Storm (Dec 2010)...the "storm which shall not be named!" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Now why I and others are so encouraged. This looks like a Nino! This is the comp mean of those 7 really good Nino years. Look at the similarities in the hemispheric longwave pattern coming up. I have no idea why this Nina isn’t behaving like a typical Nina. It wasn’t really when we had a -5 pna either. That’s more typically a enso neutral thing actually. I also have no idea why it’s starting to line up like a Nino now either. Someone smarter than me can dig into hat. We had a Nino that acted like a Nina a few years ago. Maybe enso isn’t what it used to be. Or maybe this is the 17%. I don’t know. I don’t care. It’s cold. It’s snowing. The pattern ahead looks great. I’m not kicking a gift horse in the mouth. And Vice Hiatus can suck it. If I were to sum up this post for someone who didn’t want to read it, this is how I’d do it: Modoki and moderate Ninos are very good around here. This is what PSU’s analysis shows about the height anamolies for those years. It’s INSANE that a Nina is showing a progged pattern that literally mirrors the average height anomalies of those best Nino years. This is why people are excited by the potential (remember…it’s just potential!) of the upcoming period. Fantasic post, PSU! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I’m sorry One thing i kept on insisting on that you cleared up was that 01-02 was a nina. Seems like neutral is our worst winter although logically they should be average lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m sorry One thing i kept on insisting on that you cleared up was that 01-02 was a nina. Seems like neutral is our worst winter although logically they should be average lol One of the biggest climo changes have been enso neutral years. Prior to 1982 they were often good. They were the next best to moderate ninos. But since 1982 they have been atrocious and the worst of all enso. I’ve not done any research into why the change happened. Whether it’s warming related or some other change. But it’s a large enough sample size over a long enough time period to say it’s real and not a fluke. Neutrals have become awful most of the time and that fact is responsible for most of the snow climo change. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Writing up new rules now and will include a new ban-able offense: mentioning that storm or March 2001 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Writing up new rules now and will include a new ban-able offense: mentioning that storm or March 2001 March '01 is triggering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I just missed the boat on March 2001, and wasn’t really following weather back then. Thank God for that, I would’ve been heartbroken and probably in tears. For me December 2010 was the most painful bust/screwjob ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: I just missed the boat on March 2001, and wasn’t really following weather back then. Thank God for that, I would’ve been heartbroken and probably in tears. For me December 2010 was the most painful bust/screwjob ever. In March 01, we were forecast to get 2-3 FEET. Got NOTHING. I will never forget it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: In March 01, we were forecast to get 2-3 FEET. Got NOTHING. I will never forget it. Yeah I’ve heard. Sounds revolting to me. I’m assuming you were in SW VA back then. How long did it take for it to all fall apart and become nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 22 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yeah I’ve heard. Sounds revolting to me. I’m assuming you were in SW VA back then. How long did it take for it to all fall apart and become nothing? i don't recall everything - i just remember being at this party (I was a junior in high school) where we were all staying at someone's house overnight, and then the next morning it was just drizzly. I think I found WWBB shortly thereafter as a place to vent lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Glad I don't remember March 2001. My first painful memory of a miss...was when it was supposed to be snowing when I woke up (on a Saturday), and it was clear blue skies instead, lol I cannot remember the year but it had to be in the early 2000s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: i don't recall everything - i just remember being at this party (I was a junior in high school) where we were all staying at someone's house overnight, and then the next morning it was just drizzly. I think I found WWBB shortly thereafter as a place to vent lol. Snow maps got progressively but quickly smaller and smaller until TWC had us in the 3-6” range. I thought “okay at least it’s something” and then didn’t even get that… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 44 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: March '01 is triggering. *shudders violently* 38 minutes ago, Fozz said: I just missed the boat on March 2001, and wasn’t really following weather back then. Thank God for that, I would’ve been heartbroken and probably in tears. For me December 2010 was the most painful bust/screwjob ever. I was in HS at the time and had really gotten into weather few years prior. Wasn't on weather boards yet. I remember hearing the forecast as pazzo said. I was telling my classmates and teachers we were going to get crushed with snow and don't worry about doing your homework. Woke up, green grass and yeah. Remember trying to get out of going to school because I didn't want to deal with everyone lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, yoda said: *shudders violently* I was in HS at the time and had really gotten into weather few years prior. Wasn't on weather boards yet. I remember hearing the forecast as pazzo said. I was telling my classmates and teachers we were going to get crushed with snow and don't worry about doing your homework. Woke up, green grass and yeah. Remember trying to get out of going to school because I didn't want to deal with everyone lol That is devastating. You probably felt a bit like John Bolaris that day. I think I had just a vague enough memory to realize throughout middle and high school that you should never ditch your homework just because you think you’ll get a snow day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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