January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

The weenies need to get off TT until the whole model is in, they’re slowing it down. Anyways, guessing the mountains will destroy whatever that is at 174.

Least a little makes it over - snowing at 186.

[jaydreb]

NE weenies probably loving this run of the GFS.  

[nj2va]

GFS looks good for the mountains next weekend.  Gets snow from the LP as it passes our area and then upslope gets cranking as the LP heads NE. Would be good timing for the long weekend at the ski resorts.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The gfs ain’t exactly locked in on the system at the end of the week.

[nj2va]

59 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

If 18z GFS doesn’t show at least 35” IMBY it’s a disaster.  

Time to cancel winter.  No blizzard this run.

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Time to cancel winter.  No blizzard this run.

JI about to   

[mattie g]

17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs ain’t exactly locked in on the system at the end of the week.

I know you know this, but we won’t be locked into anything unless we get a killer block and a real southern stream storm. We’re going to see crazy solutions up and down the east coast in the medium to long range while we’re in this pattern. Those exact solutions will come and go, but someone will eventually cash in on an event in which the models will give weenies decent confidence at about 72 hours out (whether it’s us that gets hit or those farther northeast).

[Maestrobjwa]

Might be in for some wild model swings during this quiet weather week! Watch at your own risk...lol (another interesting psychology bit: why we react to even long range model run solutions the way we do--despite knowing how much things jump around!)

[poolz1]

38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs ain’t exactly locked in on the system at the end of the week.

Was just going to post....Went from a south ATL low north of the Bahamas to a coastal NE snowstorm.  Just a wag, but there will likely be some slight adjustment in the coming days.

18z GFS was close to a repeat of the 12z run for late in the period.  Too much squish this run but the phase tried!

12z eps had a few nice signals. Including a beaut for the 12z gfs' timeframe...

[WinterWxLuvr]

24 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I know you know this, but we won’t be locked into anything unless we get a killer block and a real southern stream storm. We’re going to see crazy solutions up and down the east coast in the medium to long range while we’re in this pattern. Those exact solutions will come and go, but someone will eventually cash in on an event in which the models will give weenies decent confidence at about 72 hours out (whether it’s us that gets hit or those farther northeast).

I’m thinking we see a system of interest within the next 7 days. I will not be looking beyond that time.

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m thinking we see a system of interest within the next 7 days. I will not be looking beyond that time.

Agreed. I wouldn’t be surprised if something pops up in that time.

Long-range monster snowstorms are [incredibly!] fun to see modeled, but there’s just no reason to pay attention to details on ops at range. We say it all the time, and I understand why folks want the odd crazy solution to come true, but we just need to take it as one of innumerable possible ultimate solutions.

[snowfan]

GFS LR have things flying all over the place with cold nearby nearly the entire run. Love it.

[nj2va]

15 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Was just going to post....Went from a south ATL low north of the Bahamas to a coastal NE snowstorm.  Just a wag, but there will likely be some slight adjustment in the coming days.

18z GFS was close to a repeat of the 12z run for late in the period.  Too much squish this run but the phase tried!

12z eps had a few nice signals. Including a beaut for the 12z gfs' timeframe...

Great post. That map shows the multiple chances that the pattern could produce. It feels like we’re on the right side of luck (finally) so I like our chances of one of these waves EPS is keying in on (or another) working out. 

[SnowenOutThere]

59 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m thinking we see a system of interest within the next 7 days. I will not be looking beyond that time.

Any ideas to where those threat might pop up, besides MLK weekend.

[clskinsfan]

The long range potential of the GFS is salivating. Just look at the split flow, active southern stream and blocking over the top. You have REAL artic air dumping into the country straight out of Siberia through the entire month of January. Get the streams to merge on any of these chances and someone on the east coast is getting smoked. An elongated PV could lead to our southern friends getting hit instead. But the potential on these recent runs is the best I have seen since since 2009/10. 

 

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Any ideas to where those threat might pop up, besides MLK weekend.

I think the ops out to about a week give a good feel for timing of possible events. Ensembles will help as you go farther out.

This is all said with a HUGE asterisk next to it. Surface weather on any model looking out beyond three days in a relatively volatile pattern can’t be trusted, but they give you a feel for the timing of potential events IYBY.

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

The long range potential of the GFS is salivating. Just look at the split flow, active southern stream and blocking over the top. You have REAL artic air dumping into the country straight out of Siberia through the entire month of January. Get the streams to merge on any of these chances and someone on the east coast is getting smoked. An elongated PV could lead to our southern friends getting hit instead. But the potential on these recent runs is the best I have seen since since 2009/10. 

It’s about time we had something to be excited about.

Now watch us get shut out.

[LeesburgWx]

I’m watching news and radar videos of 2016… God, I hope this pattern gives us the unicorn we are looking for.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Any ideas to where those threat might pop up, besides MLK weekend.

The threat window opens +/- Friday IMO. And gets better most likely as we move into the following week. But there’s a ton of shortwaves flying around and the track of any storm is contingent on the conditions prepared by the previous wave. I think it’s possible by Tuesday that we might know if we’re in the game for something in the Friday-Sunday period. Anything after that will take longer. Don’t get too beholden too any individual Op scenario until a storm is within 72-96 hours at most.

[SnowenOutThere]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The threat window opens +/- Friday IMO. And gets better most likely as we move into the following week. But there’s a ton of shortwaves flying around and the track of any storm is contingent on the conditions prepared by the previous wave. I think it’s possible by Tuesday that we might know if we’re in the game for something in the Friday-Sunday period. Anything after that will take longer. Don’t get too beholden too any individual Op scenario until a storm is within 72-96 hours at most.

Ok thanks, from the way I read winterwxluvr’s post I thought he might mean we have some threats this work week. Thanks for clearing that confusion up.

[psuhoffman]

I know this is long but I’m pretty busy this weekend so this is my one deep analysis contribution for the weekend  

But first man that was some epic entertainment in here earlier.  Vice hiatus is a tool but at least he unites us!  And Ji is a classic. It’s like dry satire. You have to be a certain way to appreciate it. I know I’m weird but I would miss him. 

As for the pattern coming, it’s like someone gave me the crayons.  But first I wanted to clear up a misconception. Nina’s aren’t that bad. Or I guess what I should say is they aren’t any worse than what EVERY winter is with the exception of the very rare moderate or modoki ninos.  The fact is those skew our winters. Everything else is some version of bad on avg. 

I used BWI for this because DCA sucks and I hate looking at their data it’s depressing. I think BWI is more indicative of more people. If someone else wants to run the numbers for DCA go ahead.  

The last 12 Nina’s at BWI had an avg snowfall of 16.7” with 2 above avg and 5 single digit years. Yea that’s not good. But get this…

The last 12 enso neutral winters had an avg of 13.9” with 2 above avg and 5 single digits!  Nina’s we’re significantly better!  

And even crazier the last 12 non modoki or moderate ninos had an avg of 15.7 with 2 above and 4 single digits.  Nina’s we’re even slightly better than all non modoki moderate ninos!!!!!

There have been 7 modoki or moderate ninos since 1960 and they were all above average snow with a mean of 45.4”!  

So basically we want a moderate or modoki Nino.  Those are almost all blockbusters!  But that’s 7 out of 60 years!!!  Of all the rest Nina’s are actually the best option!  They all give us about a 17% chance it an above avg snow year but Nina’s have the highest mean snowfall of all the other options.  Yea Nina’s are crappy usually.  And so are neutrals and weak or strong ninos!  But every once in a while (17%) a fluke snowy winter happens in a year other than a mod modoki nino and we just take it and be grateful.  

Now I want to post the mean Nina h5 again. 

I wanted this up for comparisons sake. I want to contrast our typical issues in a nina that prevent a snowy winter 83% of the time with what I’m seeing. Note the dominant features. Central pac ridge. But often that ridge does get far enough east to not be a huge problem. Note the mean trough position is central not west. That’s a mean from two different Nina pattern as I discussed with griteater the other day. When the pac ridge extends poleward or there is blocking typically the trough is actually east of that mean and into the east. When the pac ridge is flat or the AO positive it’s west and the trough is out west with a big east ridge.  It’s “variable” is what I’m saying.  Temps actually avg colder in Nina’s than neutral or strong Nino winters!  

The real problem is what you see across the south.  Note the higher heights across east from that pac ridge through the southern US. That’s indicative that there is no stj. If any systems were running through there you would see lower pressures not higher. That’s the typical problem. We really do need some stj involvement.  We’re usually too far south to get much from pure NS systems and too far west for late developing NS induced coastals. 
 

The last two snows had southern influencE!  Very un Nina like. The first was almost all southern stream moisture. I guess technically a mid latitude SW dug enough to cut off and tap the STJ but I don’t care about that level of detail. Point is the gulf was open for business. This last system wasn’t a total fail because of the influx of gulf moisture. The late developing miller b coastal was a miss. But we were saved the typical miller b disaster by the fact it was a hybrid with some gulf involvement. 

Now look at this 18z gefs mean for next weekend. 

This isn’t crazy far out.  One week away.  The ensembles have been good inside day 10 with the longwave patterns and the eps and geps agree.  
 

Aleutian trough pumping an epo ridge.  Lower heights from the pac across the south indicating an active stj Ridging across the top.  And the best part is the drivers that lead to this are in motion now.  The SOI is tanking now.  The pacific jet retraction starts in a few days.  

Now why I and others are so encouraged.  This looks like a Nino!  This is the comp mean of those 7 really good Nino years. 

Look at the similarities in the hemispheric longwave pattern coming up.  I have no idea why this Nina isn’t behaving like a typical Nina. It wasn’t really when we had a -5 pna either. That’s more typically a enso neutral thing actually. I also have no idea why it’s starting to line up like a Nino now either.  Someone smarter than me can dig into hat.  We had a Nino that acted like a Nina a few years ago. Maybe enso isn’t what it used to be. Or maybe this is the 17%. I don’t know. I don’t care. It’s cold. It’s snowing. The pattern ahead looks great. I’m not kicking a gift horse in the mouth. And Vice Hiatus can suck it.  

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Time to cancel winter.  No blizzard this run.

It ain’t over until the MRF/NOGAPS team weighs in. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

45 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I’m watching news and radar videos of 2016… God, I hope this pattern gives us the unicorn we are looking for.

I’d much rather have several events like Thursday than have one big storm.

[snowmagnet]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know this is long but I’m pretty busy this weekend so this is my one deep analysis contribution for the weekend  

But first man that was some epic entertainment in here earlier.  Vice hiatus is a tool but at least he unites us!  And Ji is a classic. It’s like dry satire. You have to be a certain way to appreciate it. I know I’m weird but I would miss him. 

As for the pattern coming, it’s like someone gave me the crayons.  But first I wanted to clear up a misconception. Nina’s aren’t that bad. Or I guess what I should say is they aren’t any worse than what EVERY winter is with the exception of the very rare moderate or modoki ninos.  The fact is those skew our winters. Everything else is some version of bad on avg. 

I used BWI for this because DCA sucks and I hate looking at their data it’s depressing. I think BWI is more indicative of more people. If someone else wants to run the numbers for DCA go ahead.  

The last 12 Nina’s at BWI had an avg snowfall of 16.7” with 2 above avg and 5 single digit years. Yea that’s not good. But get this…

The last 12 enso neutral winters had an avg of 13.9” with 2 above avg and 5 single digits!  Nina’s we’re significantly better!  

And even crazier the last 12 non modoki or moderate ninos had an avg of 15.7 with 2 above and 4 single digits.  Nina’s we’re even slightly better than all non modoki moderate ninos!!!!!

There have been 7 modoki or moderate ninos since 1960 and they were all above average snow with a mean of 45.4”!  

So basically we want a moderate or modoki Nino.  Those are almost all blockbusters!  But that’s 7 out of 60 years!!!  Of all the rest Nina’s are actually the best option!  They all give us about a 17% chance it an above avg snow year but Nina’s have the highest mean snowfall of all the other options.  Yea Nina’s are crappy usually.  And so are neutrals and weak or strong ninos!  But every once in a while (17%) a fluke snowy winter happens in a year other than a mod modoki nino and we just take it and be grateful.  

Now I want to post the mean Nina h5 again. 

I wanted this up for comparisons sake. I want to contrast our typical issues in a nina that prevent a snowy winter 83% of the time with what I’m seeing. Note the dominant features. Central pac ridge. But often that ridge does get far enough east to not be a huge problem. Note the mean trough position is central not west. That’s a mean from two different Nina pattern as I discussed with griteater the other day. When the pac ridge extends poleward or there is blocking typically the trough is actually east of that mean and into the east. When the pac ridge is flat or the AO positive it’s west and the trough is out west with a big east ridge.  It’s “variable” is what I’m saying.  Temps actually avg colder in Nina’s than neutral or strong Nino winters!  

The real problem is what you see across the south.  Note the higher heights across east from that pac ridge through the southern US. That’s indicative that there is no stj. If any systems were running through there you would see lower pressures not higher. That’s the typical problem. We really do need some stj involvement.  We’re usually too far south to get much from pure NS systems and too far west for late developing NS induced coastals. 
 

The last two snows had southern influencE!  Very un Nina like. The first was almost all southern stream moisture. I guess technically a mid latitude SW dug enough to cut off and tap the STJ but I don’t care about that level of detail. Point is the gulf was open for business. This last system wasn’t a total fail because of the influx of gulf moisture. The late developing miller b coastal was a miss. But we were saved the typical miller b disaster by the fact it was a hybrid with some gulf involvement. 

Now look at this 18z gefs mean for next weekend. 

This isn’t crazy far out.  One week away.  The ensembles have been good inside day 10 with the longwave patterns and the eps and geps agree.  
 

Aleutian trough pumping an epo ridge.  Lower heights from the pac across the south indicating an active stj Ridging across the top.  And the best part is the drivers that lead to this are in motion now.  The SOI is tanking now.  The pacific jet retraction starts in a few days.  

Now why I and others are so encouraged.  This looks like a Nino!  This is the comp mean of those 7 really good Nino years. 

Look at the similarities in the hemispheric longwave pattern coming up.  I have no idea why this Nina isn’t behaving like a typical Nina. It wasn’t really when we had a -5 pna either. That’s more typically a enso neutral thing actually. I also have no idea why it’s starting to line up like a Nino now either.  Someone smarter than me can dig into hat.  We had a Nino that acted like a Nina a few years ago. Maybe enso isn’t what it used to be. Or maybe this is the 17%. I don’t know. I don’t care. It’s cold. It’s snowing. The pattern ahead looks great. I’m not kicking a gift horse in the mouth. And Vice Hiatus can suck it.  

Thanks for these details.  I don't understand half of it, but I'm trying to learn.  I remember hearing that we were heading into a Modaki El Nino last year (or maybe 2 years ago---it's all a blur), but either it was too late in the season, or it didn't pan out.  I don't know.  I wasn't excited about this year since it was La Nina, but our El Nino didn't work out well the past 2 years either.  So maybe it is just all luck. 

I do have a question about the Pacific Jet.  I know that the Pac has been a huge problem for us during the past few years.  However, I haven't really heard it mentioned this year.  Is it not "raging" like the past couple of years? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

23 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ok thanks, from the way I read winterwxluvr’s post I thought he might mean we have some threats this work week. Thanks for clearing that confusion up.

I think Friday forward is when there are possibilities. I won’t look beyond the upcoming weekend.

[clskinsfan]

9 hours ago, SnowCane said:

Wow I really did learn a lot from that video, thanks for sharing. He’s a lot better teacher than I ever would have suspected after following his Twitter for the last year. 

I am almost convinced DT is Vice Regent. 

[Jersey Andrew]

Climate change has to be playing a significant role. How many blockbuster snowstorms from 2006 onward up and down the Northeast? I would be interested in any comparisons to 1995-1996 winter which also flipped like a switch in early January after a warm November and December.

[chris21]

1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Climate change has to be playing a significant role. How many blockbuster snowstorms from 2006 onward up and down the Northeast? I would be interested in any comparisons to 1995-1996 winter which also flipped like a switch in early January after a warm November and December.

Nov/Dec 95 were relatively cold as well.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Climate change has to be playing a significant role. How many blockbuster snowstorms from 2006 onward up and down the Northeast? I would be interested in any comparisons to 1995-1996 winter which also flipped like a switch in early January after a warm November and December.

I think nov-dec 95 were cold

Eta:  by @chris21

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Climate change has to be playing a significant role. How many blockbuster snowstorms from 2006 onward up and down the Northeast? I would be interested in any comparisons to 1995-1996 winter which also flipped like a switch in early January after a warm November and December.

I don’t remember Nov and Dec of 95 being warm. In fact, in swva December was very cold and snowy.