WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 This may be the winter, and period, that I have the highest hopes for. My reason is I want to go back to the winter thread from the fall. Mods better lock that thread because I may be trolling the hell out of some people when this thing is done. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Jan 2016 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: This is the part of weather that constantly shows us that we are a long way away from really predicting anything seasonally when it comes to snowfall around here (or anywhere really). Some enso phases are better than others. That's indisputable. But that never stops counter periods of compressed and busy winter wx from happening. It just happens sometimes for reasons nobody can or will predict. Nino, Nina, nada, it doesn't matter. Neither does a raging +AO/NAO combo. Yea, that can def be a big problem. But 2013-14 and some of 2015 dropped by and reminded us to not think we know enough about the atmosphere for any kind of definitive calls at monthly or seasonal ranges. Just enjoy what we may or may not get as things look good in the mid range and forget about enso or any super long range thing for now. Time to make hay or something like that Perfect. No way to say this better. We don’t KNOW, we’ve never KNOWN, and we will never KNOW. This is why optimism is the way to go because … why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: Jan 2016 redux? Seems like a lock. Models should start trending stronger with the blocking from here and remove purples and pinks north of NYC here shortly 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Last comment … if what the gfs shows were to come in 1/2 true it would be so awesome. Why? Did you look at the temps for the rest of the run? We’d feel like we lived in the Yukon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Last comment … if what the gfs shows were to come in 1/2 true it would be so awesome. Why? Did you look at the temps for the rest of the run? We’d feel like we lived in the Yukon. Yea, would make 2016 look like nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 3 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This may be the winter, and period, that I have the highest hopes for. My reason is I want to go back to the winter thread from the fall. Mods better lock that thread because I may be trolling the hell out of some people when this thing is done. My comment in that thread is relevant. Seasonal weather really is a roll of the dice. Sometimes global conditions have loaded the dice, but you still get to roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 28 minutes ago, H2O said: I approve of this memeing I am honored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Perfect. No way to say this better. We don’t KNOW, we’ve never KNOWN, and we will never KNOW. This is why optimism is the way to go because … why not? Why not? Because if you're optimistic you can be further disappointed...where as if you're already pessimistic, you kinda get it out the way if it doesn't work out, and are ecstatic if it does. Man I've literally had people on here sarcastically say that it's better to "expect a fail" around here. So like...which is it? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Drooling…fun to look at for 2 more hours 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Last comment … if what the gfs shows were to come in 1/2 true it would be so awesome. Why? Did you look at the temps for the rest of the run? We’d feel like we lived in the Yukon. If the stars align and I hit climo snowfall by end of Jan I'm satisfied for the year unless something big comes along. Having it happen during the heart of our cold climo/low sun angle is a huge treat and rarely happens. Big bonus points there. Even our good Jans usually have light events. Widespread warning level storms are hard to come by until wavelengths do their thing in Feb I had low expectations like everyone else this year but Nina's can deliver arctic air here during the first 6-8 weeks of met winter sometimes. That's typically their saving grace when we do get ok totals or a few good storms. You can never rule out that possibility a month or more in advance for any reason. It's always a piece of the Nina puzzle that can make a big difference between warm/snowless or compressed cold period with some good fortune with snow. I didn't like Dec and had that sinking feeling. Pac air yawnfests are getting old. Models never showed anything super ugly though when I checked but it was always not far from ok down the line. Late Dec when ens started locking into real cold air in NA and a mechanism to push it eastward, my optimism grew. Now there appears to be a mechanism to lock in the cold that the models locked in on building. More optimistic by the day... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 GEFS? GEPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: Hard not to get super excited seeing this but it's like 12 days out. Would feel a lot better if we were still talking the MLK weekend timeline. If you watch the h5 vort loops, you'll see shortwaves zipping around or spinning all over the CONUS. At one point on the GFS I counted 5 in just the US. All models are doing it too. Extremely complex as you go out in time. This is important to keep in mind. The gfs got to the big storm through a series of shortwaves carving then finally a stream phase. Any mistake and the stream phase prob doesn't happen... Did the gfs nail super busy active flow for 10 straight days? Heh Long tracks rarely if ever have busy flow like this. Expect volatility and sneakyness for as far out as we can see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 25 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Jan 2016 redux? We could only hope. That storm was a 10.0 for us. We had plenty of time to be properly prepared. Our power never went out. P-type was consistent throughout. It was breezy with some stronger gusts to cause white outs at times. See number two! Temps were good before and after and cleanup while laborious, was not off the scale. We were under some bands at the end that wouldn't let up giving us an amazing 37" total! That's hard to top these days. TBH, I'd be fine with half the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GEFS? GEPS? Someone smarter than me could comment but looking at 500 and MSLP, I don’t see a HUGE signal that supports the op but the upper air pattern is supportive of winter weather in the east. Fun tracking ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If you watch the h5 vort loops, you'll see shortwaves zipping around or spinning all over the CONUS. At one point on the GFS I counted 5 in just the US. All models are doing it too. Extremely complex as you go out in time. This is important to keep in mind. The gfs got to the big storm through a series of shortwaves carving then finally a stream phase. Long tracks rarely if ever have busy flow like this. Expect volatility and sneakyness for as far out as we can see. looks like next sunday is worth monitoring, too. right now, it looks like a northern stream dominant system, but the gulf is open with some southern stream energy somewhere in the south lol. that solution might waver over the next couple days, i'm assuming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 WB 12Z EURO Control has a version of the GFS blizzard as well same timeframe. 11 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 How long did Feb. 2010 DC Snowmaggedon show up on models? I was living in northern New Jersey at the time, and we missed the whole thing but cashed in with 20 inch storm later in February? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GEFS? GEPS? No big signal on the gefs but one notable change down the line is it now connects the pna to epo ridge. That is the vodka cold setup JB has been predicting every year for as long as the interwebs have been around. Bay freeze pattern. Especially considering the time of year. Even with the super cold look in the upper levels, precip panels remain busy through the end of the run. I'd like to think simple statistics will push one or more of these shortwaves into position for another storm. You and I do the lite beer thing with cold and precip. If the gefs has it right, we get both 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: How long did Feb. 2010 DC Snowmaggedon show up on models? I was living in northern New Jersey at the time, and we missed the whole thing but cashed in with 20 inch storm later in February? i think that had like 5+ lead time, similar to 2016. '16 might have been a little more locked in (i think we were waiting for the euro to get on board the weekend prior). i could be wrong, though. pd2 was pretty solid at 4-5 days as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO Control has a version of the GFS blizzard as well same timeframe. Have a snowmap for $h!ts and giggles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: Have a snowmap for $h!ts and giggles? it would be a lot lol. with that said, usually want the 500 low under us. too many details this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: i think that had like 5+ lead time, similar to 2016. '16 might have been a little more locked in (i think we were waiting for the euro to get on board the weekend prior). i could be wrong, though. pd2 was pretty solid at 4-5 days as well. I think ‘16 started showing up a week or so out and aside from a random waiver or two, it was locked in the whole time. I can remember even 5 days out, the ensembles had closed 500 lows taking perfect tracks for us on the mean which was pretty astounding and put as high confidence as you can into a big storm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I think ‘16 started showing up a week or so out and aside from a random waiver or two, it was locked in the whole time. I can remember even 5 days out, the ensembles had closed 500 lows taking perfect tracks for us on the mean which was pretty astounding and put as high confidence as you can into a big storm here with snowfall means steadily increasing. yea, those big southern lows need to go somewhere. blocking/ns influence is probably the main drivers of where those systems end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No big signal on the gefs but one notable change down the line is it now connects the pna to epo ridge. That is the vodka cold setup JB has been predicting every year for as long as the interwebs have been around. Bay freeze pattern. Especially considering the time of year. Even with the super cold look in the upper levels, precip panels remain busy through the end of the run. I'd like to think simple statistics will push one or more of these shortwaves into position for another storm. You and I do the lite beer thing with cold and precip. If the gefs has it right, we get both JB would predict snow and cold in a summer thunderstorm if he could talk long enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: Have a snowmap for $h!ts and giggles? WB EURO Control Snow map as requested, again details to be determined but I am hopeful a lot of us will see at least one more storm in the next 2 weeks. (Nothing through the 15th except our freezing rain in am ). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z GFS w/ 41" at IAD, 33" at DCA, 29" at BWI in the long range. Somehow, Ji will scoff at this, but holey moley am I excited about the next three weeks. Could be an epic time. Haven't been this optimistic since 2009 - 2010. Baltimore fringed. Meh. Next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 40 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO Control Snow map as requested, again details to be determined but I am hopeful a lot of us will see at least one more storm in the next 2 weeks. (Nothing through the 15th except our freezing rain in am ). Going beyond this time frame ... BANG KU potential. Using the snowfall images simply to show the period of interest is supported by the EPS and the GEFS members. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 The STJ is in play down the road. A continued decline in the SOI . Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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