January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said:

You are just an asshat. Nothing more... our birthdays are two days apart man.

The next upcoming 3 weeks of solid winter has got you a little irritated. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

. Look where smart cities have got us.. get real dude.

The only thing that reliably gets me where I want to be is me. Idgaf about "smart cities". I take care of myself and have yet to fail. Blaming others for your woes is a defeatist attitude that guarantees underperformance as an individual. 

How's mom's basement? Chips gettin stale?

[Vice-Regent]

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

The next upcoming 3 weeks of solid winter has got you a little irritated. 

The same people come out of the woodwork. Not a factor in my post actually.

You guys caught me at an unusual time. Normally I wouldn't engage this stuff and it's got me wondering that if the first thing you do after waking up is visiting the long-range thread on a weather forum that might be ominous indications of some neglect elsewhere in life. Again I don't know we cannot self regulate each other we all have the same faults. Two days man.

[HighStakes]

3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

The same people come out of the woodwork. Not a factor in my post actually.

You guys caught me at an unusual time. Normally I wouldn't engage this stuff and it's got me wondering that if the first thing you do after waking up is visiting the long-range thread on a weather forum that might be ominous indications of some neglect elsewhere in life. Again I don't know we cannot self regulate each other we all have the same faults. Two days man.

First thing I do in thr morning is take a dump!! Then I look at the long range thread. You were close though.

[Kmlwx]

Well this page of the thread has become the walking advertisement for the therapy industry. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll make it REALLY simple to understand... Ji's snow mood is 100% predicated on op model runs far beyond their useful range. It has always been and will always be this way. If there isn't a HECS on some random op somewhere waaaay out in time, it's a disaster. Does this make sense? Only if you've known Ji as long as your teenage kids. 

He’s also a troll and should be added to everyone’s ignore list.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

12 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

The same people come out of the woodwork. Not a factor in my post actually.

You guys caught me at an unusual time. Normally I wouldn't engage this stuff and it's got me wondering that if the first thing you do after waking up is visiting the long-range thread on a weather forum that might be ominous indications of some neglect elsewhere in life. Again I don't know we cannot self regulate each other we all have the same faults. Two days man.

I'll probably regret engaging this, and maybe you're just trying to be snarky and humorous, but...dafuq???

Many or most of us come in here primarily during the winter, since that's the predominant interest.  So of course one of the first things I/we do is to check out the threads in here if we know something potentially interesting is going on.  Neglect elsewhere in life?  That's a bit rich.  You could argue any hobby people have that they take seriously or pursue with great interest causes the same, but that's a rather negative way to view things.  Some take it too far or are a bit over the top, but most in here are not (and @Bob Chill or @psuhoffman are perhaps the two most level-headed people around here).

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

18 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

First thing I do in thr morning is take a dump!! Then I look at the long range thread. You were close though.

Hey man...priorities!!  Hold it in for awhile and check out the long range first!  Jeez!! 

[North Balti Zen]

34 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

You are just an asshat. Nothing more... our birthdays are two days apart man.

I am guilty to falling victim to many things. Astrology being one of those if you can respect my right-hemisphere centered self.

For ****ssake, BAN him. We finally get Chill back with some pretty great disco and this mewling taint trolls him. @WxUSAF 

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

For ****ssake, BAN him. We finally get Chill back with some pretty great disco and this mewling taint trolls him. @WxUSAF 

Nah, we're good. Long history of course and I don't mind. Vice's posts themselves do an excellent job of insulting him without anyone having to put in work. Let it rip 

[nj2va]

On 12/28/2021 at 6:03 PM, Ji said:

Winter is over...just don't see it. Not even trackable threat yet and the lr looks bleak. We only have so much time

Reminder of Ji’s last prediction a week before he had two measurable events. Keep in mind when Ji declares January is a disaster and we can’t even get a fantasy storm in a good pattern. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Reminder of Ji’s last prediction a week before he had two measurable events. Keep in mind when Ji declares January is a disaster and we can’t even get a fantasy storm in a good pattern. 

Our best events historically come after Ji's most entertaining melts. We're in the warmup phase. Once the climax of the meltdown is complete, we'll see the leading edge of a big dog on radar. 

I didn't write these rules and they really don't make a lick of sense but if Ji isn't melting, it isn't snowing. 

[IronTy]

34 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

First thing I do in thr morning is take a dump!! Then I look at the long range thread. You were close though.

Nothing like dropping the kids off at the pool first thing in the morning.  Then after that I take my pup out and he does the same.  Deuces everywhere.  

[Bob Chill]

34 minutes ago, mattie g said:

He’s also a troll and should be added to everyone’s ignore list.

I mean we should... for a list of reasons longer than the dead sea scrolls... but I just can't bring myself to even consider it. Dare I say, in secret, when nobody is looking, and there is no way to get caught, I find myself thoroughly enjoying every single one of Ji's posts?

 

It's like meth. You know you should never fukkin touch it and you know what pain it can bring to families and friends. But for reasons beyond conscious control, you take a big long hit and start thinking about the next one... never done meth but reading Ji's posts for over 15 years is prob close enough 

[IronTy]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Our best events historically come after Ji's most entertaining melts. We're in the warmup phase. Once the climax of the meltdown is complete, we'll see the leading edge of a big dog on radar. 

I didn't write these rules and they really don't make a lick of sense but if Ji isn't melting, it isn't snowing. 

Sometimes you have to have complete capitulation before the good stuff can begin.   The Bastardi JMA event comes to mind some years ago.  One of the classics.  

[IronTy]

It's strange that there should be so much drama on a weather forum because it's literally the one thing in life, and subsequently the one forum on earth, that nobody can do a damn thing about.  Every single person is completely powerless to impact one iota of anything on the subject of the forum.   Which is probably why it elicits such strong emotion.  In fact there's probably a thesis topic in there for some budding phd psychology student.  

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, IronTy said:

It's strange that there should be so much drama on a weather forum because it's literally the one thing in life, and subsequently the one forum on earth, that nobody can do a damn thing about.  Every single person is completely powerless to impact one iota of anything on the subject of the forum.   Which is probably why it elicits such strong emotion.  In fact there's probably a thesis topic in there for some budding phd psychology student.  

Your relative newness here is showing with this post. Everything you say makes perfect sense but you gotta delete those thoughts before clicking on any thread on amwx.

Just let it all go. Forget about logic. Forget about reality. Forget about realistic expectations. Forget about what "normal" people "should" be doing. Just open your mind and take a big long look at what's REALLY going on here. This place only draws in fookin weirdos with mental problems. Me included. Prove me wrong 

[nw baltimore wx]

51 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

First thing I do in thr morning is take a dump!! Then I look at the long range thread. You were close though.

I’m on the same schedule but I do early morning model watching from the throne.

[nw baltimore wx]

DT can be such a great teacher when he’s medicated. There’s a lot of good info in this video. A lot of self-back-patting too, but worth the watch IMO.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said:

You are just an asshat. Nothing more... our birthdays are two days apart man.

I am guilty to falling victim to many things. Astrology being one of those if you can respect my right-hemisphere centered self.

Before anybody say don’t engage a troll .. I am not.

I’m engaging a moron. That’s right @Vice-Regent, I’m looking at you. You’ve been one even back to when you were Weatherguy. Take a hint. Leave. Did you really think you don’t and gloom posting was gonna persuade other to join your noble basement quest? 

[HighStakes]

5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m on the same schedule but I do early morning model watching from the throne.

I never doubted your ability to multi task Bob. Lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Your relative newness here is showing with this post. Everything you say makes perfect sense but you gotta delete those thoughts before clicking on any thread on amwx.

Just let it all go. Forget about logic. Forget about reality. Forget about realistic expectations. Forget about what "normal" people "should" be doing. Just open your mind and take a big long look at what's REALLY going on here. This place only draws in fookin weirdos with mental problems. Me included. Prove me wrong 

Nah, you’re off a little here. Most of us have a weird obsession with snow. Some though, post with the intent of triggering emotional responses of others. Those are the mentally challenged here. 
 

How that clown doesn’t get banned is beyond my comprehension level. It’s a volunteer community. This community does not want him here. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Our best events historically come after Ji's most entertaining melts. We're in the warmup phase. Once the climax of the meltdown is complete, we'll see the leading edge of a big dog on radar. 

I didn't write these rules and they really don't make a lick of sense but if Ji isn't melting, it isn't snowing. 

When assessing the overall pattern, I take Ji and Jebman as two opposite starting point goalpost ensemble members, then gradually interpolate between them based upon the GEFS and EPS ensembles.  It's most effective at D+5 through about D+30.  At times, even on the seasonal scale.

Well, it SOUNDED scientific at least!! 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just let it all go. Forget about logic. Forget about reality. Forget about realistic expectations. Forget about what "normal" people "should" be doing. Just open your mind and take a big long look at what's REALLY going on here. This place only draws in fookin weirdos with mental problems. Me included. Prove me wrong 

Nothing further from the defense, your Honor...we got nothing!

[H2O]

The sooner we all admit we are the “I like Santa,” kid from A Christmas Story the better this place would be

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Some though, post with the intent of triggering emotional responses of others. Those are the mentally challenged here. 

Oh yea, interwebs is a mega farm for trolls looking to ruffle. That's universal. The problem here is that the responses from "normal" posters really highlight my point. Pre game in our storm threads should be studied by Mayo or NIH or something. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

The sooner we all admit we are the “I like Santa,” kid from A Christmas Story the better this place would be

[WinterWxLuvr]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Oh yea, interwebs is a mega farm for trolls looking to ruffle. That's universal. The problem here is that the responses from "normal" posters really highlight my point. Pre game in our storm threads should be studied by Mayo or NIH or something. 

I believe this is what you’re saying 

[stormtracker]

What is even happening in here.  I didn't even know this vice guy was like this.   Let's get back to MR/LR talk.  I need my fix..I just woke up and this is the first thing I've checked!

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What is even happening in here.  I didn't even know this vice guy was like this.   Let's get back to MR/LR talk.  I need my fix..I just woke up and this is the first thing I've checked!

You know those beautiful summer DC late evenings when it's warm and calm and the sun is down so not sweating bullets anymore? Then, because it's calm, the mosquitoes turn you into a pin cushion one little annoying bite at a time? That's Vice in here this morning. You know those same evenings when a mild breeze kicks up and all the mosquitoes disappear? That you banning vice in here this afternoon.