CAPE Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Dark days ahead. Trough is way too far east. Too many competing shortwaves. Too much dominant northern stream. Phasing not in sync. Result: depressing model runs and waste of cold The advertised pattern in the LR is generally a cold and dry look on the means. Spilt flow with a hint of a southern stream underneath the ridge out west, but it looks suppressed with the southward displacement of the TPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yep long range is depressing. Good thing our events have been popping in the mid/short range. Hidden from plain sight and makes Ji go something something We have a cold look now, so we are in the game. Without cold in place it rains in my yard 9 times out of 10. The period around MLK day still looks interesting. Beyond that who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Yep long range is depressing. Good thing our events have been popping in the mid/short range. Hidden from plain sight and makes Ji go something something Not true. The cape storm was seen 2 weeks away...by @cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ji said: Dark days ahead. Trough is way too far east. Too many competing shortwaves. Too much dominant northern stream. Phasing not in sync. Result: depressing model runs and waste of cold Dark days? All I've seen in here recently is how incredible the pattern setup looks to be from Mid to Late January. To be fair I only start really looking once there's potential within 7 days, but how does the vibe go from incredible potential to dark days seemingly overnight? Not criticizing, I'm genuinely curious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Not true. The cape storm was seen 2 weeks away...by @cape It also went through about 5 plastic surgeries and cosmetic procedures, waffling a bit on whether to actually go through with the procedure, finally deciding upon a look and proceeding. And, like all instances like this, some found the finished product to be beautiful, while others found it hideous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: Dark days? All I've seen in here recently is how incredible the pattern setup looks to be from Mid to Late January. To be fair I only start really looking once there's potential within 7 days, but how does the vibe go from incredible potential to dark days seemingly overnight? Not criticizing, I'm genuinely curious. No need to be perplexed. The answer is … Ji 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Not true. The cape storm was seen 2 weeks away...by @cape It was probably closer to 10 days, but we were in a total shit pattern then, and the tendency was to look too far out for something better. Same thing can happen now when we have a more favorable/ colder pattern. Find the warts! Overall it looks dry, but like Bob said threats often pop up in the mid range, esp in the advertised regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Dark days? All I've seen in here recently is how incredible the pattern setup looks to be from Mid to Late January. To be fair I only start really looking once there's potential within 7 days, but how does the vibe go from incredible potential to dark days seemingly overnight? Not criticizing, I'm genuinely curious. Because we likey have 7 to 10 days of dark days before we have the potential of another snowstorm. After 2 weeks of excitement...its a huge letdown 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 We should go back several pages and rehash the "long range looks cold and dry" and the "long range cold looks to break down mid month" and the "long range is boring " and the "long range looks active af" and the "what happened to our af long range" and the "late December early January looks cold but roundy says pattern breaks down mid month" seriously bunch of rip and read fish floppers. It just snowed twice this week....shut up Chuck 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: We should go back several pages and rehash the "long range looks cold and dry" and the "long range cold looks to break down mid month" and the "long range is boring " and the "long range looks active af" and the "what happened to our af long range" and the "late December early January looks cold but roundy says pattern breaks down mid month" seriously bunch of rip and read fish floppers. It just snowed twice this week....shut up Chuck Get off my lawn! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Get off my lawn! I don't have a lawn because it snowed TWICE this week 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I don't have a lawn because it snowed TWICE this week Tomorrow is gonna wreck my deep winter look, and it may never snow again. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: It was probably closer to 10 days, but we were in a total shit pattern then, and the tendency was to look too far out for something better. Same thing can happen now when we have a more favorable/ colder pattern. Find the warts! Overall it looks dry, but like Bob said threats often pop up in the mid range, esp in the advertised regime. Decent setups and snow storms are pretty much exclusive to each other on the balance. If good patterns = snowfall I'd still be digging out from all the wasted ones over the last 10-15 years. The personality of winter wx so far in this "window" has been active and sneaky. I'll only assume that changed after we fail or things start evaporating as leads shorten. Other than that, I'll sit in the duck blind waiting for a low flier. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: Tomorrow is gonna wreck my deep winter look, and it may never snow again. That prediction is probably correct today I'm anxious to see tomorrow's prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That prediction is probably correct today I'm anxious to see tomorrow's prediction Light rain with temps in the 40s wont take it all, with more cold right on the heels. I just felt like being dramatic and depressing for Ji. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I think on some level I actually think Weather 53s thoughts on models is correct in a backwater hillbilly white trash park your school bus in the front yard conspiracy theory kinda way. The ensembles have sorta predicted every available outcome for the long range. I don't think it's because they're programmed that way to make money I think it's because the atmosphere is chaotic but still to the average mo it sure looks like it's on purpose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 24 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Dark days? All I've seen in here recently is how incredible the pattern setup looks to be from Mid to Late January. To be fair I only start really looking once there's potential within 7 days, but how does the vibe go from incredible potential to dark days seemingly overnight? Not criticizing, I'm genuinely curious. Glad someone asked. I am very confused at the moment with regards to, or lack there of, upcoming winter storm prospects. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, TJ3 said: Glad someone asked. I am very confused at the moment with regards to, or lack there of, upcoming winter storm prospects. That's just JI being JI. Best pattern of the winter we are heading into. Doesn't guarantee snow but we should have our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, TJ3 said: Glad someone asked. I am very confused at the moment with regards to, or lack there of, upcoming winter storm prospects. I'll make it REALLY simple to understand... Ji's snow mood is 100% predicated on op model runs far beyond their useful range. It has always been and will always be this way. If there isn't a HECS on some random op somewhere waaaay out in time, it's a disaster. Does this make sense? Only if you've known Ji as long as your teenage kids. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Lwx Forcast discussion mentions an active upper level pattern with a stormy period starting next weekend with Many shortwaves traveling the conus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Big amplified patterns with full latitude thoughs or really "steep hills" in the atmosphere create environments for explosive storms but they are super touchy and tricky. Personally, I always look for more confluent flow. I like seeing a broad trough with heights running more zonal underneath instead of "hilly". This is how we get our good cold storms. For reference only, take a look at this long range gfs panel. See how the trough in the east is broad and kinda flat underneath? See that shortwave to the west undercutting? This is what we (in the MA) want to see in general. Confluent flow keeps cold air plentiful and keeps storms from pulling north and/or west. The more time we spend with a general regime similar to above, the better the odds of a pretty good storm. 14 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Big amplified patterns with full latitude thoughs or really "steep hills" in the atmosphere create environments for explosive storms but they are super touchy and tricky. Personally, I always look for more confluent flow. I like seeing a broad trough with heights running more zonal underneath instead of "hilly". This is how we get our good cold storms. For reference only, take a look at this long range gfs panel. See how the trough in the east is broad and kinda flat underneath? See that shortwave to the west undercutting? This is what we (in the MA) want to see in general. Confluent flow keeps cold air plentiful and keeps storms from pulling north and/or west. The more time we spend with a general regime similar to above, the better the odds of a pretty good storm. How's your retirement from long range model watching going? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: How's your retirement from long range model watching going? Ripping and reading is as easy as microwave popcorn 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: How's your retirement from long range model watching going? I'll always watch big storm setups from afar but I sure as heck wont take time out of my work day or stay up late to do it. THAT is the crux of my retirement. Lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Big amplified patterns with full latitude thoughs or really "steep hills" in the atmosphere create environments for explosive storms but they are super touchy and tricky. Personally, I always look for more confluent flow. I like seeing a broad trough with heights running more zonal underneath instead of "hilly". This is how we get our good cold storms. For reference only, take a look at this long range gfs panel. See how the trough in the east is broad and kinda flat underneath? See that shortwave to the west undercutting? This is what we (in the MA) want to see in general. Confluent flow keeps cold air plentiful and keeps storms from pulling north and/or west. The more time we spend with a general regime similar to above, the better the odds of a pretty good storm. Too bad you are pinning your hopes on the GFS which has been too cold in the long-range. Some inherent bias in the resolution of the modeling. It's showing up on everything but most apparent on the GFS. This period of wintry respite is starting to cloud your judgement Bob Chill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 And to add to my h5 post above, broad throughs and confluent flow is the holy grail of "wiggle room" here. Lots can "deteriorate" but still produce. Can't say the same thing about full latitude phasers or any other kind of really amplified setups. That uphill trip from the south rare if ever has wiggle room. You typically either get destroyed, rained, or blanked. No model gets the track right until really close and every 12 hours turns subtle upper level shifts into massive sensible wx shifts. I'm so sick of that stuff I can't say it enough. Broad troughs and more zonal/confluent flow is where it's at for me. Much more reasonable to assess up to 5 days out. Maybe it caps the top end potential but our area isn't good at top end on a phased bomb ripping northward. We generally do best ENE trajectory in the upper levels on approach 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Too bad you are pinning your hopes on the GFS which has been too cold in the long-range. Some inherent bias in the resolution of the modeling. It's showing up on everything but most apparent on the GFS. This period of wintry respite is starting to cloud your judgement Bob Chill. I guess you missed the words "for reference only" and "generally". If you think I'm pinning my hopes in a d10 op run, you're even dumber than I thought and that's a tall order right there 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I guess you missed the words "for reference only" and "generally". If you think I'm pinning my hopes in a d10 op run, you're even dumber than I thought and that's a tall order right there Need something to post about. I get that. In regards to being dumb or not on your wavelength. Look where smart cities have got us.. get real dude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just now, Vice-Regent said: Need something to post about. I get that. No, I'm pretty sure you don't get much at all. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No, I'm pretty sure you don't get much at all. You are just an asshat. Nothing more... our birthdays are two days apart man. I am guilty to falling victim to many things. Astrology being one of those if you can respect my right-hemisphere centered self. 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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