January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[nj2va]

Can we either move Sunday into the discobs thread or create a separate one? It’ll get cluttered in here talking MR/LR with it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

39 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Clearly the GFS on TT encountered the matrix and ceased to function. Leaving us with a 156 panel with what appears to be a small hurricane (that is presumably going straight out to sea)

 

It got drunk, spit out a Hurricane, then went to sleep

[stormtracker]

58 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Can we either move Sunday into the discobs thread or create a separate one? It’ll get cluttered in here talking MR/LR with it. 

 

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Louis Allen? Damn. You's old. And then it was Gordon Barnes and Bill Kamal. 

It’s been alluded to already, but as much as I presently enjoy tracking and guessing the outcomes of snow, I miss the days of kneeling over the newspaper and seeing yesterday’s weather and trying to figure out tomorrow’s from a black and white map with data that’s at least 18 hours old. Even back than I obsessed, but I didn’t do it every six hours.

I remember Gordon Barnes. Wow I am VERY old lol

[Jebman]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Man there’s some crazy sh*t showing up on the long range guidance. Anyone notice the 18z Gfs nearly pulled off the same thing the ggem was doing at 12z but missed the phase by like 12 hours. Still managed a pretty good storm anyways but that was so close to a monster. I’ll say this…it’s rare we get the arctic jet amplified so far south as being indicated. It does open the door to some fun possibilities. 

It will happen, it will demolish the entire Mid Atlantic with Vodka Cold and seriously heavy snow - and it shall be dubbed The PSU Hoffman Blizzard of 2022.

[Jebman]

9 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

I wore that damn number out. My thermometer was crap. 

[Weather Will]

It is exciting to see potential in the next 2 weeks.  I know the experts hate the snow maps but they show both the dream scenario and the bust potential. We will need some more luck….never thought we would be looking for a mega southern storm in a Nina year.  WB 0Z EPS

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Some may think I’m nuts, but if it snows 12” between now and Feb 11 I will call that an utter failure.

Those long range ensemble means are extremely smoothed and the members themselves are low resolution.  Plus it’s 10-1. So you’re not seeing the typical meso scale factors that cause places in the NW zones to get more snow.  
 

second those means are skewed towards climo and for most that is above climo for that period and the places that aren’t it’s because of factor 1 above.  

[psuhoffman]

Model performance analysis of 1/7 event 

I’m putting this here since I feel it’s relevant to factor in future analysis but mods can move it if they feel it belongs somewhere else. 
 

From super long range most guidance was amplifying the trough around a single SW and cutting a storm well NW of us. What eventually happened was the trough split with two SWs amplifying with just enough spacing to work out. The first pulled the boundary south and the second took advantage of that for us. But those are details I don’t expect guidance to get from day 8+. All guidance had the very general longwave pattern pretty well depicted imo. 
 

Once inside day 8 the euro was the first to pick up on the details and show the eventual outcome. But the Gfs and ggem were only about 24 hours behind and by day 5 all 3 had the synoptic setup mostly correct.  
 

The debate from day 5 in was about meso banding and transfer issues. Not things the globals can possibly nail at range. 
 

We knew there would be one max running to our NW and one max further east once the coastal developed. The globals picked that out pretty well fairly early. I remember discussing that possibility based on this type of setup on a zoom chat when it was still 5 days out then the next run both the euro and Gfs picked up on it.  That’s pretty good Imo. 

Around 2-3 days out most guidance was too far SW with the costal transfer and associated development of deformation axis.  Most guidance was showing that starting in the VA northern neck through the Delmarva  in reality that formed in Delaware and got going in NJ.  That’s a typical error and I never want to be on the SW edge of a developing miller b coastal.  That’s a recipe for a bust 90% of the time.  
 

Within 24 hours the euro, NAM3k and rgem did the best with banding and qpf.  Have to factor in ratios.  In this type setup even the kuchera can be low.  

Gfs was way too wet and developed the deform over DC instead of NJ.  Hrrr was too dry.  I’ve noticed it does ok with banding but often is too dry outside it.  Maybe it overdoes subsidence.  The href did very well but once inside 12 hours it’s hard to use since it’s only run every 12 hours and has a lag.  I really hope they continue to improve on the idea of a short range high resolution ensemble with the new fv3 system.  It’s a great idea that just hasn’t been perfected yet.

Last thought on the high resolution models.  They can be maddening because they’re susceptible to errors due to their high resolution.  But they can also see details the globals can’t.  The NAM often picks up on mid level warm layers first.  Imo when a high resolution model is in line synoptically with the consensus among the globals it’s a good idea to pay attention to their details.  Also does what they’re showing make sense.  If they have a mid level warm later, what’s the track of the mid and upper level low?  Is there a screaming southerly flow at h7?  Things like that.  Are those details on the globals just being underestimated due to lower resolution?  Apply some analysis to determine if what the high res guidance is saying is correct because it can see details better or an error due to going off on a tangent due to higher res.  
 

Overall I think the guidance did very well.  Resolving a miller b in a fast slow is extremely difficult and they got the synoptic idea correct from pretty far out.  

 

 

 

[Ji]

Dark days ahead. Trough is way too far east. Too many competing shortwaves. Too much dominant northern stream. Phasing not in sync. Result: depressing model runs and waste of cold

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Dark days ahead. Trough is way too far east. Too many competing shortwaves. Too much dominant northern stream. Phasing not in sync. Result: depressing model runs and waste of cold

Yep long range is depressing. Good thing our events have been popping in the mid/short range. Hidden from plain sight and makes Ji go something something 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Dark days ahead. Trough is way too far east. Too many competing shortwaves. Too much dominant northern stream. Phasing not in sync. Result: depressing model runs and waste of cold

The advertised pattern in the LR is generally a cold and dry look on the means. Spilt flow with a hint of a southern stream underneath the ridge out west, but it looks suppressed with the southward displacement of the TPV.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep long range is depressing. Good thing our events have been popping in the mid/short range. Hidden from plain sight and makes Ji go something something 

We have a cold look now, so we are in the game. Without cold in place it rains in my yard 9 times out of 10. The period around MLK day still looks interesting. Beyond that who knows.

[Ji]

Yep long range is depressing. Good thing our events have been popping in the mid/short range. Hidden from plain sight and makes Ji go something something 

Not true. The cape storm was seen 2 weeks away...by @cape

[Steve25]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

Dark days ahead. Trough is way too far east. Too many competing shortwaves. Too much dominant northern stream. Phasing not in sync. Result: depressing model runs and waste of cold

Dark days? All I've seen in here recently is how incredible the pattern setup looks to be from Mid to Late January. To be fair I only start really looking once there's potential within 7 days, but how does the vibe go from incredible potential to dark days seemingly overnight? 

Not criticizing, I'm genuinely curious. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not true. The cape storm was seen 2 weeks away...by @cape

It also went through about 5 plastic surgeries and cosmetic procedures, waffling a bit on whether to actually go through with the procedure, finally deciding upon a look and proceeding. And, like all instances like this, some found the finished product to be beautiful, while others found it hideous.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Dark days? All I've seen in here recently is how incredible the pattern setup looks to be from Mid to Late January. To be fair I only start really looking once there's potential within 7 days, but how does the vibe go from incredible potential to dark days seemingly overnight? 

Not criticizing, I'm genuinely curious. 

No need to be perplexed. The answer is … Ji

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not true. The cape storm was seen 2 weeks away...by @cape

It was probably closer to 10 days, but we were in a total shit pattern then, and the tendency was to look too far out for something better. Same thing can happen now when we have a more favorable/ colder pattern. Find the warts!

Overall it looks dry, but like Bob said threats often pop up in the mid range, esp in the advertised regime. 

[Ji]

Dark days? All I've seen in here recently is how incredible the pattern setup looks to be from Mid to Late January. To be fair I only start really looking once there's potential within 7 days, but how does the vibe go from incredible potential to dark days seemingly overnight? 
Not criticizing, I'm genuinely curious. 

Because we likey have 7 to 10 days of dark days before we have the potential of another snowstorm. After 2 weeks of excitement...its a huge letdown

[aldie 22]

We should go back several pages and rehash the "long range looks cold and dry" and the "long range cold looks to break down mid month" and the "long range is boring " and the "long range looks active af" and the "what happened to our af long range" and the "late December early January looks cold but roundy says pattern breaks down mid month" seriously bunch of rip and read fish floppers. It just snowed twice this week....shut up Chuck 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

We should go back several pages and rehash the "long range looks cold and dry" and the "long range cold looks to break down mid month" and the "long range is boring " and the "long range looks active af" and the "what happened to our af long range" and the "late December early January looks cold but roundy says pattern breaks down mid month" seriously bunch of rip and read fish floppers. It just snowed twice this week....shut up Chuck 

Get off my lawn!

[aldie 22]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Get off my lawn!

I don't have a lawn because it snowed TWICE this week 

[CAPE]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I don't have a lawn because it snowed TWICE this week 

Tomorrow is gonna wreck my deep winter look, and it may never snow again. 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It was probably closer to 10 days, but we were in a total shit pattern then, and the tendency was to look too far out for something better. Same thing can happen now when we have a more favorable/ colder pattern. Find the warts!

Overall it looks dry, but like Bob said threats often pop up in the mid range, esp in the advertised regime. 

Decent setups and snow storms are pretty much exclusive to each other on the balance. If good patterns = snowfall I'd still be digging out from all the wasted ones over the last 10-15 years. 

The personality of winter wx so far in this "window" has been active and sneaky. I'll only assume that changed after we fail or things start evaporating as leads shorten. Other than that, I'll sit in the duck blind waiting for a low flier. 

[aldie 22]

Just now, CAPE said:

Tomorrow is gonna wreck my deep winter look, and it may never snow again. 

That prediction is probably correct today I'm anxious to see tomorrow's prediction 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

That prediction is probably correct today I'm anxious to see tomorrow's prediction 

Light rain with temps in the 40s wont take it all, with more cold right on the heels. I just felt like being dramatic and depressing for Ji.

[aldie 22]

I think on some level I actually think Weather 53s thoughts on models is correct in a backwater hillbilly white trash park your school bus in the front yard conspiracy theory kinda way. The ensembles have sorta predicted every available outcome for the long range. I don't think it's because they're programmed that way to make money I think it's because the atmosphere is chaotic but still to the average mo it sure looks like it's on purpose 

[TJ3]

24 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Dark days? All I've seen in here recently is how incredible the pattern setup looks to be from Mid to Late January. To be fair I only start really looking once there's potential within 7 days, but how does the vibe go from incredible potential to dark days seemingly overnight? 

Not criticizing, I'm genuinely curious. 

Glad someone asked. I am very confused at the moment with regards to, or lack there of, upcoming winter storm prospects. 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, TJ3 said:

Glad someone asked. I am very confused at the moment with regards to, or lack there of, upcoming winter storm prospects. 

That's just JI being JI.

Best pattern of the winter we are heading into. 

Doesn't guarantee snow but we should have our chances.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

Glad someone asked. I am very confused at the moment with regards to, or lack there of, upcoming winter storm prospects. 

I'll make it REALLY simple to understand... Ji's snow mood is 100% predicated on op model runs far beyond their useful range. It has always been and will always be this way. If there isn't a HECS on some random op somewhere waaaay out in time, it's a disaster. Does this make sense? Only if you've known Ji as long as your teenage kids.