Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: With the exception of 96 I can’t remember any storms close to those dates. I remember some a couple weeks or more later. Are there storms I’m just not remembering? Jan 80 & 04 both had decent storms in DC. Overall the list shows at lot of Januaries that had storms or were good periods for storms but didn't come together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just let Ma Nature do her thing. There is no doubt a good looking period being advertised. One of the best we've seen in January for a long time. Never any guarantees but at least it looks like a multiple chance window. We usually need those. Oh, and take a nice long look at the analog list and let your imagination have some fun. Stop posting porn or I’ll report you to the authorities. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: With the exception of 96 I can’t remember any storms close to those dates. I remember some a couple weeks or more later. Are there storms I’m just not remembering? Some rudimentary research, but here's what I could figure out. 2009-01-21 Tail end of a brutal cold pattern for most of the central and eastern US. 1-28 featured a snow to ice/rain event but the major storm (12-18"+) was confined to the interior NE. 2003-01-15 Southern slider with light accum for DC. 4-10" for SE Virginia. 1980-01-24 Couldn't find much other than a WSW event for North Carolina on the 30th. 1978-01-29 Follows a sizeable MA/NE storm on the 20th and predates the New England blizzard during Feb 5-7th (which we got scraps from). 1961-01-25 Follows a decent storm from the 18th-21st and predates a sizeable one from Feb 2nd-5th. DCA had a high of 18 and a low of 8 on the 25th, so a pretty frigid timeframe. 2004-01-20 Predates a pretty decent system on the 26th. Pretty broad range of 4"+ for most of the subforum. 2007-01-28 Couldn't find much until well after 2003-01-20 Same as previous analog 1996-01-03 Lol I wonder what happened here 2009-12-31 Not much other than a weak system on NYE Biggest takeaway for me is that just about all of these analogs occurred before a substantial system, even if that storm didn't target our general area. A lot were also coupled with brutal temperatures, so if there's any way to test if we can still get "true" cold, this would be the time. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Considering it's a Nina, 01-03-1996 has me giddy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Awesome replies guys. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Awesome replies guys. Thanks It’s Friday and we just had a great winter week. Nothing but fun and love…and beers. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Awesome replies guys. Thanks I wasn't being super specific with the analogs as I'm more interested in the entire upcoming 2-3 weeks. Not just the upper air progs on d11. That analog list is loaded with good winter wx in the east in general. That upper air pattern looks beautiful and when setups like this come along, it usually last for a while. If things play out as it looks now, there's going to be multiple threats to track. Seems like it wants to snow here for some reason too. Weird. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, benjammin said: Those tiny maps in the Washington Post and Star. Of course dialing 936-1212 but the biggest thing was when Bob Ryan said it was going to snow a lot because he was usually conservative and right. In January 96 when he forecasted 1-2 feet before a flake had fallen I knew we were going to get nailed. Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk I always felt that Ryan would cover all bases more than being conservative. The original great DC weatherman was Louis Allen, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 WB 0Z 3K NAM increasing threat for freezing rain Sunday am. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 52 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Awesome replies guys. Thanks I’ll add that when going that far out on an ensemble the pattern gets smoothed and washed a bit. You’re getting a general pattern look v a specific finer details one. It’s different when using the 24-72 hour CIPS analogs for a specific storm. A lot of times a general pattern stays in place for weeks and ebbs and flows or recycles. I know some day those long range analogs are meant to be day specific but I’ve found that when the pattern actually comes to fruition they can pick out pattern similarities and what the potential is for snow from that pattern if it sticks around a while. Some examples both good and bad recently…in late December 2019 those analogs started spitting out every total awful snowless dreg winter we’ve had. In late Feb 2018 they started quoting some of our epic March years. It took 3 fails but we did eventually cash in! comp patterns tend to progress somewhat similar. I do think there is some value to seeing what the same general pattern produced in the past even beyond just on that exact date to set a guideline for potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 WB 0Z 3K NAM increasing threat for freezing rain Sunday am.Could be one of those events where trees, colder surfaces are slick even in places that aren’t below freezing given its fairly frigid tonight and tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Could be one of those events where trees, colder surfaces are slick even in places that aren’t below freezing given its fairly frigid tonight and tomorrow. WB 3K NAM temps 7am Sunday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 40 minutes ago, AU74 said: I always felt that Ryan would cover all bases more than being conservative. The original great DC weatherman was Louis Allen, imo. In Baltimore it was Jim Smith on WJZ channel 13 and back then they were an ABC affiliate. CBS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 hours ago, benjammin said: Those tiny maps in the Washington Post and Star. Of course dialing 936-1212 but the biggest thing was when Bob Ryan said it was going to snow a lot because he was usually conservative and right. In January 96 when he forecasted 1-2 feet before a flake had fallen I knew we were going to get nailed. Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk I have distinct memories of watching Bob Ryan’s forecasts and loved it when he had to up his snow totals. He was always so conservative with his snow forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 hours ago, benjammin said: Those tiny maps in the Washington Post and Star. Of course dialing 936-1212 but the biggest thing was when Bob Ryan said it was going to snow a lot because he was usually conservative and right. In January 96 when he forecasted 1-2 feet before a flake had fallen I knew we were going to get nailed. Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk I know those Washington Star maps well. Used to deliver the Star a longggg time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 51 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Could be one of those events where trees, colder surfaces are slick even in places that aren’t below freezing given its fairly frigid tonight and tomorrow. Spot on. It's pretty clearly going to be well down into the 20s Saturday night before the temperature rises later at late. All road surfaces will be super cold, so just getting to 32 or 33 Sunday morning won't end the icing threat. It's also worth noting that the NAM Nest appears to be doing its usual thing of being slow with precip arrival, and the earlier start shown by some of the other guidance certainly suggests a fairly disruptive (and likely a high-impact) icing event. The only thing keeping it from being an extreme high-impact event will be that it's on a Sunday morning. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 hours ago, Cobalt said: Some rudimentary research, but here's what I could figure out. 1978-01-29 Follows a sizeable MA/NE storm on the 20th and predates the New England blizzard during Feb 5-7th (which we got scraps from). 1961-01-25 Follows a decent storm from the 18th-21st and predates a sizeable one from Feb 2nd-5th. DCA had a high of 18 and a low of 8 on the 25th, so a pretty frigid timeframe. 2007-01-28 Couldn't find much until well after Nice research! Just a couple of notes on these quoted dates: The blizzard of 2/78 was a also a significant snowstorm from the northeast DC suburbs and northeastward, including Baltimore and especially northeastern MD. Immediate DC and west of the city did miss out. 1/26/61 was the only significant snow you missed on your entire list. 5.9” storm for DC. The end of January 2007 was notable not for a specific storm but for marking the pattern change that brought a wintry and very cold February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 WB latest GEFS extended 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Could be one of those events where trees, colder surfaces are slick even in places that aren’t below freezing given its fairly frigid tonight and tomorrow. Northern areas yes. Immediate metro, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 37 minutes ago, high risk said: Spot on. It's pretty clearly going to be well down into the 20s Saturday night before the temperature rises later at late. All road surfaces will be super cold, so just getting to 32 or 33 Sunday morning won't end the icing threat. It's also worth noting that the NAM Nest appears to be doing its usual thing of being slow with precip arrival, and the earlier start shown by some of the other guidance certainly suggests a fairly disruptive (and likely a high-impact) icing event. The only thing keeping it from being an extreme high-impact event will be that it's on a Sunday morning. I agree with both of you. Sunday morning may be nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 26 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest GEFS extended Some may think I’m nuts, but if it snows 12” between now and Feb 11 I will call that an utter failure. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I agree with both of you. Sunday morning may be nasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Some may think I’m nuts, but if it snows 12” between now and Feb 11 I will call that an utter failure. Hey I hear ya--I'm not sure we've seen a better setup/pattern in a long time. Like Bob said--looking at this week, it just feels like, at last, it finally wants to snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 27 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Northern areas yes. Immediate metro, no. Why no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Lol, ok, the gfs now has a Hurricane off the southeast coast lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Why no? Same question I had! I've seen it get slick here in the city--and our temperatures are gonna struggle to get to freezing for awhile, I'd imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol, ok, the gfs now has a Hurricane off the southeast coast lol Man I kept lookin' at that like what the heck?? Lol Drunk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Hour 156 of GFS (next Friday) goes from sunny and cold (18z) to monster storm off the coast. Not a storm for us per se….yet. ETA: Cat 3? LOLz. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 hours ago, AU74 said: I always felt that Ryan would cover all bases more than being conservative. The original great DC weatherman was Louis Allen, imo. Louis Allen? Damn. You's old. And then it was Gordon Barnes and Bill Kamal. It’s been alluded to already, but as much as I presently enjoy tracking and guessing the outcomes of snow, I miss the days of kneeling over the newspaper and seeing yesterday’s weather and trying to figure out tomorrow’s from a black and white map with data that’s at least 18 hours old. Even back than I obsessed, but I didn’t do it every six hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Clearly the GFS on TT encountered the matrix and ceased to function. Leaving us with a 156 panel with what appears to be a small hurricane (that is presumably going straight out to sea) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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