January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[clskinsfan]

Been stuck on the phone working all day. But the GFS is pretty much weenie heaven if you like tracking chances over the next couple of weeks. Busy time upcoming for those of us addicted to this hobby is my guess. 

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Been stuck on the phone working all day. But the GFS is pretty much weenie heaven if you like tracking chances over the next couple of weeks. Busy time upcoming for those of us addicted to this hobby is my guess. 

I think it might get frustrating to a lot of us, in that stuff that looks good may pop up and then disappear, but there may also be situations like the last week when storms pop up in the relatively short term. Just a give and take we may have to make. If we really do get a nice block with a STJ popping up, we might have a longer track, but I'm not planning for that, even with the look we're seeing now.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

But isn't that the scene just before all his plans explode into a roaring ball of flame?  What are you implying? Panic!

Chill out 

[Ji]

we are heading towards dark days friends....after non stop tracking and excitement ...we really have nothing concrete to track right now. the OP euro was less than thrilling lol the good news is that we are not in a shutout pattern

[WinterWxLuvr]

I, for one, hate long track events. I’d much rather start tracking within 48 hours. For one thing you don’t have to wait as long for models to run lol

[Imgoinhungry]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

we are heading towards dark days friends....after non stop tracking and excitement ...we really have nothing concrete to track right now. the OP euro was less than thrilling lol the good news is that we are not in a shutout pattern

coastal storm mlk weekend no longer showing up on models?

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

we are heading towards dark days friends....after non stop tracking and excitement ...we really have nothing concrete to track right now. the OP euro was less than thrilling lol the good news is that we are not in a shutout pattern

We’re heading into a very good pattern and we JUST got snow.  If this is the “dark times” your bar might be…oh hell we all know you’re never happy lol 

 As the pacific pattern progression and high lat pattern regression reaches its peak the next trough amplification happens a little too far east and so yes we might have about a 7 day “dead” period to contend with before the pattern begins to retrograde. 
 

But what is advertised across guidance and is moving forward in time into a believable range after the peak jet extension relaxes some is a full latitude PNA EPO ridge as the next wave attack on the high latitudes begins to repeat that cycle only this time with a favorable pacific longwave pattern. If that’s even close to reality threats will show up pretty fast. But you know that lol. 

[Ji]

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

coastal storm mlk weekend no longer showing up on models?

it does look like the EPS has a good signal. But the 12z op euro was really boring

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I, for one, hate long track events. I’d much rather start tracking within 48 hours. For one thing you don’t have to wait as long for models to run lol

THIS!!!!!  2016 was way too nerve wracking.  Waiting every run for 10 days for the rug to get pulled. Even knowing the pattern supported that event and knowing it had a good chance you know things can still go wrong. A badly timed NS SW or PV lobe comes along and bye bye storm. 
 

There is no upside to a storm showing up 7 days out. If it hits by the time it does your emotionally exhausted and it’s not as exciting. Then if it ends up being a small event you’re disappointed. Last year those 2 big storms if I got 10” when 48 hrs out looked like nothing I’d have been over the mood. Instead I was content but meh because it teased me with 20”+ 48 hours out.  
 

Give me a storm that pops up 2-3 days out every time. Saves me from my own obsessive tendencies. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

it does look like the EPS has a good signal. But the 12z op euro was really boring

Would you prefer the op look good at day 9-10 and the ensembles crap? 

[nj2va]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

THIS!!!!!  2016 was way too nerve wracking.  Waiting every run for 10 days for the rug to get pulled. Even knowing the pattern supported that event and knowing it had a good chance you know things can still go wrong. A badly timed NS SW or PV lobe comes along and bye bye storm. 
 

There is no upside to a storm showing up 7 days out. If it hits by the time it does your emotionally exhausted and it’s not as exciting. Then if it ends up being a small event you’re disappointed. Last year those 2 big storms if I got 10” when 48 hrs out looked like nothing I’d have been over the mood. Instead I was content but meh because it teased me with 20”+ 48 hours out.  
 

Give me a storm that pops up 2-3 days out every time. Saves me from my own obsessive tendencies. 

Give me something to track in the Day 4 and shorter timeframe, too.  The longer track events are annoying AF due to the meltdowns and freakouts over every.  single.  fluctuation. -- "OMG, THE 162 HOUR SNOWFALL MAP WENT FROM 16" TO 10" HERE COMES THE NORTH TREND IT WAS FUN WHILE IT LASTED".  

[WxUSAF]

These two events were perfect in a lot of ways. Didn’t really give them any significance until about 48-72 hours, low emotional investment going in, then both overperformed IMBY. Wonderful. 

[osfan24]

25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

These two events were perfect in a lot of ways. Didn’t really give them any significance until about 48-72 hours, low emotional investment going in, then both overperformed IMBY. Wonderful. 

Second one was great, though Boston area getting hit hard made me kinda sad. First one was painful. So close to something big, and I had invested a decent amount in that.

[WxUSAF]

24 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Second one was great, though Boston area getting hit hard made me kinda sad. First one was painful. So close to something big, and I had invested a decent amount in that.

I empathize with the Monday miss but today was a lucky low end warning/high end advisory snow. Northern stream Miller B that we got that? Gravy. Boston cleans up on those, we usually lose.

[Maestrobjwa]

32 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Second one was great, though Boston area getting hit hard made me kinda sad. First one was painful. So close to something big, and I had invested a decent amount in that.

Yeah I feel your pain on Monday (obviously, lol). I was so close that my reporting station got 4.5 more inches--so I feel ya! Being that close bothers me more than, say, Boston getting shellacked. But last night was a salve for that...just what the doctor ordered (along with the potential shown in the LR!) 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Give me something to track in the Day 4 and shorter timeframe, too.  The longer track events are annoying AF due to the meltdowns and freakouts over every.  single.  fluctuation. -- "OMG, THE 162 HOUR SNOWFALL MAP WENT FROM 16" TO 10" HERE COMES THE NORTH TREND IT WAS FUN WHILE IT LASTED".  

The favorite part of my semi-retirement here is not caring about that stuff any more. I've seen enough over the last 15 years. Everything is a repeat to me in many ways so it's much easier to barely look until it's "real". Real is subjective but for me it doesn't exist outside of 3-4 days tops unless it's a big dog. Once a common type of storm makes it into the meso model runs and it looks good enough, that's when my gears shift now. 

This allowed me to significantly appreciate the 2 events we just had. No stress. No fuss. But both overperformed in their own ways for my yard. What a treat. 

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Would you prefer the op look good at day 9-10 and the ensembles crap? 

op lol. looks better on my screen

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The favorite part of my semi-retirement here is not caring about that stuff any more. I've seen enough over the last 15 years. Everything is a repeat to me in many ways so it's much easier to barely look until it's "real". Real is subjective but for me it doesn't exist outside of 3-4 days tops unless it's a big dog. Once a common type of storm makes it into the meso model runs and it looks good enough, that's when my gears shift now. 

This allowed me to significantly appreciate the 2 events we just had. No stress. No fuss. But both overperformed in their own ways for my yard. What a treat. 

This where things were better when I was a kid. Many times snow would come and you wouldn’t have a clue it was coming. And if you did, you might know a day or two in advance tops. You either had to see it on a tv broadcast, see it in the newspaper, or hear it on the radio.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

This where things were better when I was a kid. Many times snow would come and you wouldn’t have a clue it was coming. And if you did, you might know a day or two in advance tops. You either had to see it on a tv broadcast, see it in the newspaper, or hear it on the radio.

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

You know that was 53s voice occasionally 

[Stormfly]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

LOL haven't heard that number in years.  Along with the time lady at 844-1212.

I got my first weather radio in the early 80s.  No need to call the weather bureau as they called it.

[Prestige Worldwide]

[Herb@MAWS]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

... And you dial 936-1212 and then after a few seconds your wife picks up on the other phone and gleefully shouts “Caught ya!!!”

[Scraff]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

Sad but true. That was so me! And oh…what was that “party” line# again? 

[Herb@MAWS]

10 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

LOL haven't heard that number in years.  Along with the time lady at 844-1212.

I got my first weather radio in the early 80s.  No need to call the weather bureau as they called it.

And let’s not forget AM Weather. 

[Herb@MAWS]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Sad but true. That was so me! And oh…what was that “party” line# again? 

In Baltimore, we called it The Beep Line. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

Hahaha!  I remember in northeast Ohio growing up, the weather line (NWS forecast) was 931-1212.  And the TV-8 (CBS) forecast from the famed local meteorologist Dick Goddard was 881-0880!  I can still hear his voice on the weather segment of the local news, he'd say for updates to call "eight eight one...zero...eight eight zero" (with the pauses and all in his voice!).  Yeah, I still remember those damned numbers!  Sadly, Dick Goddard passed away in 2020...he really was a legend in the area and very good.  Especially when it came to lake effect snow.

9 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

LOL haven't heard that number in years.  Along with the time lady at 844-1212.

I got my first weather radio in the early 80s.  No need to call the weather bureau as they called it.

I had a weather radio about the same time, in the early '80s!  Listened to it all the time, awaiting the zone forecasts (everything was on a loop of course...observations, weather summary, zone forecasts, etc.).  And I even still remember the time number from where I was growing up, 471-1212.  With the automated voice saying "At the tone, the time will be..." every 10 seconds!!

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This where things were better when I was a kid. Many times snow would come and you wouldn’t have a clue it was coming. And if you did, you might know a day or two in advance tops. You either had to see it on a tv broadcast, see it in the newspaper, or hear it on the radio.

Ignorance was literally bliss...lol And really, despite my youth and the technology boom I grew up in, the only tracking I did was the local news and the 7 day...lol Wasn't until the 2013-14 winter that I stumbled on this site. And boy am I glad I wasn't on here for some of the fails--if we failed it was better not to know how close it was! 

But with everything at our fingertips (for better or worse, lol) I think that psychologically we get over exposed. Having all these maps can get ya all wrapped up in it...And then when something approaches--and even while it's happening--there's obsession over radar appearances instead of looking out our dang windows!

Yep...it was definitely less stressful before!

 

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ignorance was literally bliss...lol And really the only tracking I did was the local news and the 7 day...lol Wasn't until the 2013-14 winter that I stumbled on this site. And boy am I glad I wasn't on here for some of the fails--if we failed it was better not to know how close it was! 

But with everything at our fingertips (for better or worse, lol) I think that psychologically we get over exposed. Having all these maps can get ya all wrapped up in it...And then when something approaches--and even while it's happening--there's obsession over radar appearances instead of looking out our dang windows!

Yep...it was definitely less stressful before!

 

My dad and I used to watch the weather channel for hours at a time. They had the 7day forecast on the 20s after the hour, I always watched that shit for the bright white snow on the map because that meant heavy snow.  

[Lowershoresadness]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

it better snow a ton to make us forget about the dumpster fire that Terps bb has become. At least Turge is gone