osfan24 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not looking for a big cold shot. Looking for a big snowstorm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 hours ago, Ji said: Congrats jbhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2022010700&fh=384 It was delayed, not denied. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 My personal guess is a big storm prob won't set up until a few of the legit cold troughs carve thru and create some highways. Maybe an overrunner or moderate event of any kind b4. Me thinks big storm potential is on the relax side of the cold pattern. Just a WAG. No real ideas on anything specific. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My personal guess is a big storm prob won't set up until a few of the legit cold troughs carve thru and create some highways. Maybe an overrunner or moderate event of any kind b4. Me thinks big storm potential is on the relax side of the cold pattern. Just a WAG. No real ideas on anything specific. I tend to agree but I’m always open to Mother Nature surprising me. But it looks like we have a real winter this year at least. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Funny how we genuinely seem to go on streaks. I was only going into this one expecting 2-3 on the high end and got 4ish+ Will be curious is we can cash in a semi big one in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My personal guess is a big storm prob won't set up until a few of the legit cold troughs carve thru and create some highways. Maybe an overrunner or moderate event of any kind b4. Me thinks big storm potential is on the relax side of the cold pattern. Just a WAG. No real ideas on anything specific. Rather be in the 60’s the days leading up to a 6-12 incher versus 20’s and low 30’s for highs and no snow lol. Heck we pulled it off earlier in the week!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Yea I’m in the camp to where the way the year has gone thus far something will show up on the back end of the short range to early medium range. A lot of little nuances happening in the atmosphere as of recent wrt lows just ripping through. Hard to time or predict until it gets closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My personal guess is a big storm prob won't set up until a few of the legit cold troughs carve thru and create some highways. Maybe an overrunner or moderate event of any kind b4. Me thinks big storm potential is on the relax side of the cold pattern. Just a WAG. No real ideas on anything specific. Great thing about cold in the northeast is that an overrunner/tn/oh valley cutter can be a lot of fun. I want one of those followed by a Midwest arctic blast with a Miller A running the coast with that cold pushing in followed quickly by a stout clipper bringing a 1985 cold shot right behind it. Theoretically it could happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Every model that has run so far has ice in our area Sunday morning. Timing could make things dicey for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Every model that has run so far has ice in our area Sunday morning. Timing could make things dicey for a bit. Schools have already closed for next week 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, Yeoman said: Schools have already closed for next week No doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Every model that has run so far has ice in our area Sunday morning. Timing could make things dicey for a bit. Whats the time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Whats the time frame? Looks like right around 7-9 am to me. All models I’ve seen have us in the 20’s with light precip moving in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I tend to agree but I’m always open to Mother Nature surprising me. But it looks like we have a real winter this year at least. Winter wx here is perplexing. I'm starting to no longer care about anything in the Fall. Even enso. I mean sure, mod Nino ftw but for whatever reason, our good winter periods are compressed and busy and they can happen in any year. Odds favor certain years but I've seen enough counter moves over the last 15 years to temper any and all expectations of anything beyond a couple weeks. Eta: important addition to my post... big storm setups are different and they are the holy grail of why we do this. Good setups can be easy to identify weeks or even a month in advance. I'll track TF out of every single one from long range. Beyond that I'm officially in chips fall mode prob forever 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Suggest buying extra chapstick and Aveeno 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Something to watch. Also, as previously stated, an active pattern with decent clipper potential, and eventially possible SECS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 We’ve talked about cold air source a bit … not gonna be a problem soon I would think 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 If you trust indices forecasts, which you probably shouldn’t, the big three of -AO, -NAO, +PNA may be lining up soon. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 A slight change of plans. Improvement in the MJO, tropical forcing and for the first time in a while we have a SOI reading of - 7.63 today. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Winter wx here is perplexing. I'm starting to no longer care about anything in the Fall. Even enso. I mean sure, mod Nino ftw but for whatever reason, our good winter periods are compressed and busy and they can happen in any year. Odds favor certain years but I've seen enough counter moves over the last 15 years to temper any and all expectations of anything beyond a couple weeks. Eta: important addition to my post... big storm setups are different and they are the holy grail of why we do this. Good setups can be easy to identify weeks or even a month in advance. I'll track TF out of every single one from long range. Beyond that I'm officially in chips fall mode prob forever This is so true Bob! Thanks for posting. I mean, I was all doom and gloom, and only expecting to see cold and snow maybe in February if we were lucky! This winter is now better than I expected. Additionally, I thought I was right while sweltering in December. I do suspect we have another warmer stretch at some point before maybe one last hurrah to make winter last a bit longer after the pattern changes.. but I can hope it doesn't change! I like winter to feel and be like winter that I want! Today is that kind of winter.. I know I live in the wrong part of the world to get this every year, but it makes even smaller events special. ALSO, great to see you pop in here some and comment! I learned so much from you over the last several years!! You may have thought from a productive side of things this was all a waste, but for weenies on this board, your knowledge and input were invaluable and I thank you very much! That probably did not help your paycheck, or maybe even relationships since this was such a time suck.. but thank you for pouring it into this board! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Getting more impressive every run. Cross-polar flow and quick moving disturbances. Depending on whether we can put down some snow cover will determine if we have a wintery landscape to go along with the frigid temperatures. Any snow cover would certainly enhance even lower temperatures. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 JB is obviously all over the rest of this month but thinks a warm up is in store for February. I'd be ok with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, IronTy said: JB is obviously all over the rest of this month but thinks a warm up is in store for February. I'd be ok with that. We could all be above climo (with some luck) in the next 2 weeks. If that were to happen, I’m just eyeing February up as a gravy month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, Scraff said: We could all be above climo (with some luck) in the next 2 weeks. If that were to happen, I’m just eyeing February up as a gravy month. Just given how time periods usually line up, if we score a couple times between now and the end of the month, I can absolutely imagine a situation in which events would be hard to come by in much of February. I wouldn't give up at that point, though, as I could then see things lining up once more for a couple weeks as February turns to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Is Roundy still calling for the pattern to breakdown mid January? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 High pressure over over SE Idaho and a scooting low pressure system to our South. This time period remains of interest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Ok, who broke the gfs? Who did it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok, who broke the gfs? Who did it? Ji….he was looking for the back edge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Ggem was gonna smoke us as the run ended. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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