Weather Will Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Long range euro looks dry after the weekend. So does WB 6Z GEFS. Chilly, but dry. But we can enjoy the expected 2-4 in the short range, and hope something pops in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 28 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You seem angry a bit Shut it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: So does WB 6Z GEFS. Chilly, but dry. But we can enjoy the expected 2-4 in the short range, and hope something pops in the long range. Thing about that upper level nw flow is that it is gonna be dry most of the time. Need snow on the ground to make it tolerable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 WB 6Z GEFS 10 day mean snowfall is not a shutout (looking at the period after this Friday.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Maybe. Weak split out west with some waves undercutting the pna ridge. When you pump the PNA like that with a CPF extension the cold will be there in the East. A well-timed phase would work. But I wouldn't kick a clipper out of the sack either. Yeah, looking a bit more closely there is some separation with the pumped-up PNA ridge where you could sneak a shortwave through. And I certainly wouldn't kick a clipper out of the sack either, LOL! 10 hours ago, mattie g said: That’s a pretty damn cold look. If we can score a little snow as that settles in, then even it stays dry, we could have a couple weeks of a really wintry feel. Definitely would be cold. I was being a bit snarky with my "chilly" comment but it would be nice to have a couple of wintry feeling weeks (and not just cold/dry if we can manage it!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Per the latest zones... DCA is forecasted to reach highs around 30 on Tuesday. That would be the first time in a while of a subfreezing high at DCA, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Like I said though, -PNA popped, pattern changes to cold after 36hrs.. which makes me feel less good that it hasn't happened already. It will happen though it's too short term, but blah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Watch the gravity over the SW Rocky mountains/warm Denver over the next few years. (We really need a Strong El Nino to even things out) We had a peak -PDO in the 1950s, didn't even out until 72-73, (65-66 was a -PNA El Nino) so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Don't underestimate this one.. even as starting as snow briefly, everyone loves a good +PNA(not going to trend warmer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 I wonder if that system in about a week could produce a cutter into cad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 GFS Fantasy Storm WB 12Z for 2 weeks out. Week of 16th as already indicated by many is one to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: GFS Fantasy Storm WB 12Z for 2 weeks out. Week of 16th as already indicated by many is one to watch. This is the one I was alerting everyone to yesterday with me traveling and specifically watching the time period because of flights etc.. been showing on accuweather no joke for like over a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, yoda said: Has he recovered from his quality call for Monday? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Op GFS has a ridiculously negative AO/NAO in the period around the 20th, and the GEFS height anomalies are impressive for 300 hours out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 hours ago, yoda said: Per the latest zones... DCA is forecasted to reach highs around 30 on Tuesday. That would be the first time in a while of a subfreezing high at DCA, yes? Coldest max last winter at DCA was 31, with a few other days at 32; no days at or below 32 in winter 2020. The last time we spent a full day below 30 was early Feb 2019, so hopefully the cold air pans out the next few weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, WinterFire said: Coldest max last winter at DCA was 31, with a few other days at 32; no days at or below 32 in winter 2020. The last time we spent a full day below 30 was early Feb 2019, so hopefully the cold air pans out the next few weeks! Yea getting cold has been an issue recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 STJ looks juicy for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: STJ looks juicy for this one love these postage stamps, where can I buy? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 16 minutes ago, TSG said: love these postage stamps, where can I buy? You have to start with the 3 cent Mallard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I wonder if that system in about a week could produce a cutter into cad. The euro say maybe but needs some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Op GFS has a ridiculously negative AO/NAO in the period around the 20th, and the GEFS height anomalies are impressive for 300 hours out. GEFS with a big loud DT WOOF for D10 (MLK weekend). -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and a clear Miller A signal in the MSLP and precip. 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS with a big loud DT WOOF for D10 (MLK weekend). -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and a clear Miller A signal in the MSLP and precip. Do I hear beach blizzard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS with a big loud DT WOOF for D10 (MLK weekend). -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and a clear Miller A signal in the MSLP and precip. I hadn't even noticed the rest of that other than the anomalies at 500. In looking at it now, I couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS with a big loud DT WOOF for D10 (MLK weekend). -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and a clear Miller A signal in the MSLP and precip. Big time WOOF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The ensembles did a damn good job seeing the frontal wave potential all the way back prior to Christmas for the first 10 days January. They highlighted the potential 2 weeks ago. At that point we weren't sure which side of the boundary we'd be on but the pattern was nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I’m patenting it Snomicron already CWG, so you have to credit me when you steal that 2 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: I’m patenting it Snomicron already CWG, so you have to credit me when you steal that i95 Mask. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 23 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Great thread from @griteateron where mid and late January may lead I’ve seen some posts by even people I respect a lot implying we return to a strongly -epo because “Nina” which confuses me because that’s not actually an automatic Nina thing. I posted this on Twitter yesterday but it’s every Nina winter mean h5 since 1980. Yea the pac ridge is obvious and the +TNH and I’m not saying that’s a good look for snow here but it’s not necessarily a crazy -pna either. The NAM trough axis is actually more typically more east than it was. However, pointing out a “typical” Nina doesn’t necessarily translate to the current pac base state. Also hidden within that are actually 2 different Nina states. When there is a poleward epo ridge it NAO blocking (later in winter!) we tend to see the trough more east in North America. When the pac ridge is flat and or. +NAO we tend to see it west and a -pna and big SE ridge. I do agree the pac jet retracts and we get a retrogression off the NAM pattern. That’s not bad, that will give us a nice window during prime climo mid January! After that though I think depends on the high latitudes. Assuming we revert to the recent pac base state if the epo ridge dissipates and the NAO stays positive then we probably torch Feb. we don’t do slightly warm anymore. Any pattern that favors a ridge in the east means crazy warm anomalies recently. No reason to expect different. But I do think we get another period of high latitude help. Recent trends say it’s unlikely the AO stays positive the rest of winter. I also think the happenings in the pac had a lot to do with the coming +NAO. analog based pattern progression showed the NAO ridge was likely to retrograde to the pac side. It took longer than expected with the stalled mjo but the expected pattern progression seems to be resumed now. My best guess is we have to suffer a torch period at some point late Jan or Early Feb before things start to recycle up top. But I do think we get one more chance at snow after. Whether that’s Feb or we have to wait until March I don’t know. As grit eater says it’s all an educated guess at those ranges. But I’m sure it won’t be soon enough for some who start complaining about Sun angle by groundhogs day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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