January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

As is a very nice gefs run. But I want to see the NS stop trending stronger on future runs. 

keep in mind there could be high ratios with this kind of setup. We don’t need that much qpf to get some decent snowfall totals. 
UK finally joined the party somewhat. 
 

I think we’ve seen a tightening on guidance. Some of the crazy north and south solutions are gone. From here on in imo it’s about the trade off between the lead NS SW and the trailing SW. Less suppressive NS and or more separation and a more amplified north solution. Less separation or a stronger NS SW and a weaker souther solution. 

[mattie g]

49 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Give a man 10" and he starts acting all cocky and stuffs

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

As is a very nice gefs run. But I want to see the NS stop trending stronger on future runs. 

keep in mind there could be high ratios with this kind of setup. We don’t need that much qpf to get some decent snowfall totals. 
UK finally joined the party somewhat. 
 

I think we’ve seen a tightening on guidance. Some of the crazy north and south solutions are gone. From here on in imo it’s about the trade off between the lead NS SW and the trailing SW. Less suppressive NS and or more separation and a more amplified north solution. Less separation or a stronger NS SW and a weaker souther solution. 

There's the Chill middle finger right through Montgomery county

[jayyy]

36 minutes ago, 87storms said:

agreed.  mostly just want to avoid a skunk at this point.  that was pretty annoying...though the models hinted at that on sunday, so it was at least somewhat expected.

If this winter is going to continue to be dominated by a progressive flow without much ridging and southern sliders, we may need to start getting used to this feeling - at least for this season. 

These types of winters are bound to happen by sheer odds. Climo and our latitude helps us 95% of the time…. unless the primary storm track for the winter season is a suppressed one. Then it’s fairly useless.

I remember a couple of winters when I still lived up in New York where coastal NJ, NYC, LI and coastal New England kept seeing 6-8-12+ snowfalls and my location (roughly 50 miles NW of NYC - a location that averages FEET more than NYC / LI / NJ each winter with a ton more elevation ) kept getting fringed.

There was a storm that winter where places on Long Island saw nearly 2 feet of snow and we got 3” max in northern Rockland county. The very next storm had a similar outcome, just with lower totals.

 The “southern slider” winter as we called it on the old Tristateweather forum.  I believe it was also a niña winter. Storm after storm kept moving quickly and sliding underneath and off the MD / DE / southern jersey coast and tracking just close enough to hit the coast with big snows, but no dice for us inland as the ULL never got captured and we weren’t seeing much in the way of digging in the trough axis. It was flat, snowless, and frustrating as all hell. We kept saying “it’ll be our turn next time” and we waited nearly a year for our next big snowfall. 

Not saying that’s guaranteed to happen to us this winter by any means…. But it does appear like we’re in for a more frustrating winter than average and that I-95 may finally be rewarded after several consecutive dud winters. 
 

I am definitely rooting for a region-wide warning level snow from the coast to the mountains, but those seem hard to come by nowadays. I will also gladly take a region-wide 3-6” type storm as well

[StormchaserChuck!]

It actually misses north.. these maps are rarely wrong.

[chris21]

4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

It actually misses north.. these maps are rarely wrong.

That map looks far far different on pivotal.

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

It actually misses north.. these maps are rarely wrong.

 

       I think that what is happening is that the MAG site where you got this image displays "snow depth change" and not "positive snow depth change" like Tropical Tidbits does.    The distinction is that the snow depth change is going to tally snow on the ground today that melts before Thursday night as a negative.     So, if an area has 4" melt and then gets 4" of new snow, that map will show a 0.   (Even negative values are possible, but that map starts at 0.)     The positive snow depth map on Tropical Tidbits looks way different and shows several inches of new snow across VA/MD/DE.

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

       I think that what is happening is that the MAG site where you got this image displays "snow depth change" and not "positive snow depth change" like Tropical Tidbits does.    The distinction is that the snow depth change is going to tally snow on the ground today that melts before Thursday night as a negative.     So, if an area has 4" melt and then gets 4" of new snow, that map will show a 0.   (Even negative values are possible, but that map starts at 0.)     The positive snow depth map on Tropical Tidbits looks way different and shows several inches of new snow across VA/MD/DE.

That's very cool.  Thanks!

[87storms]

13 minutes ago, jayyy said:

If this winter is going to continue to be dominated by a progressive flow without much ridging and southern sliders, we may need to start getting used to this feeling - at least for this season. 

These types of winters are bound to happen by sheer odds. Climo and our latitude helps us 95% of the time…. unless the primary storm track for the winter season is a suppressed one. Then it’s fairly useless.

I remember a couple of winters when I still lived up in New York where coastal NJ, NYC, LI and coastal New England kept seeing 6-8-12+ snowfalls and my location (roughly 50 miles NW of NYC - a location that averages FEET more than NYC / LI / NJ each winter with a ton more elevation ) kept getting fringed.

There was a storm that winter where places on Long Island saw nearly 2 feet of snow and we got 3” max in northern Rockland county. The very next storm had a similar outcome, just with lower totals.

 The “southern slider” winter as we called it on the old Tristateweather forum.  I believe it was also a niña winter. Storm after storm kept moving quickly and sliding underneath and off the MD / DE / southern jersey coast and tracking just close enough to hit the coast with big snows, but no dice for us inland as the ULL never got captured and we weren’t seeing much in the way of digging in the trough axis. It was flat, snowless, and frustrating as all hell. We kept saying “it’ll be our turn next time” and we waited nearly a year for our next big snowfall. 

Not saying that’s guaranteed to happen to us this winter by any means…. But it does appear like we’re in for a more frustrating winter than average and that I-95 may finally be rewarded after several consecutive dud winters. 
 

I am definitely rooting for a region-wide warning level snow from the coast to the mountains, but those seem hard to come by nowadays. I will also gladly take a region-wide 3-6” type storm as well

the teleconnections do seem to matter on a large scale here given the fact that we're usually a boom/bust snow town, but i think a southern slider is more at play when there isn't much northern stream involvement, or just plain further north.  hopefully that's not the case this time around.  as they say...12z euro will be telling.

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

       I think that what is happening is that the MAG site where you got this image displays "snow depth change" and not "positive snow depth change" like Tropical Tidbits does.    The distinction is that the snow depth change is going to tally snow on the ground today that melts before Thursday night as a negative.     So, if an area has 4" melt and then gets 4" of new snow, that map will show a 0.   (Even negative values are possible, but that map starts at 0.)     The positive snow depth map on Tropical Tidbits looks way different and shows several inches of new snow across VA/MD/DE.

It's also Chuck....so that may be part of it as well  

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

That's very cool.  Thanks!

That was the polite way of saying Shut.p Chuck

[WEATHER53]

Looks like a brush by snow that’s not an A nor B but rather a wsw-ene mover as opposed to the last one moving sw-ne

if we start to get into the aspect of where we need a transfer and phase then, as most always, we right around DC are in trouble 

[Solution Man]

7 minutes ago, high risk said:

       I think that what is happening is that the MAG site where you got this image displays "snow depth change" and not "positive snow depth change" like Tropical Tidbits does.    The distinction is that the snow depth change is going to tally snow on the ground today that melts before Thursday night as a negative.     So, if an area has 4" melt and then gets 4" of new snow, that map will show a 0.   (Even negative values are possible, but that map starts at 0.)     The positive snow depth map on Tropical Tidbits looks way different and shows several inches of new snow across VA/MD/DE.

Thank you for clarification 

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

It actually misses north.. these maps are rarely wrong.

Come here Chuck.  Have a seat.  I have news. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I've been watching them, and it happens as it snows. They have 100% of the time been in the general range. Sometimes you cant tell from QPF if it's 5-10" or 1-3".. it's good

[StormchaserChuck!]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Come here Chuck.  Have a seat.  I have news. 

Opening the borders of Canada?

[aldie 22]

Feels like Sunday might be something to watch as well although it's mostly rain at the moment

[Scraff]

Second biggest Euro run of the year forthcoming? 

[psuhoffman]

The pattern in the actual long range looks very cold but dry 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Feels like Sunday might be something to watch as well although it's mostly rain at the moment

Might get some freezing rain to protect the potential snow pack

[WEATHER53]

Dc is in a snow pattern 

[psuhoffman]

Early on the euro also trended south and stronger with the lead NS SW. Expected as they was universal across all 12z guidance. That’s what I’ll be watching in future runs. 

[psuhoffman]

It’s also stronger with the trailing SW so maybe it will be a wash. But definitely less room to breath with less ridging and a more compressed suppressive flow in front of it. 

[psuhoffman]

Also a little faster with the second wave which decreases the spacing. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Dc is in a snow pattern 

Surprise -PNA/SE ridge

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s also stronger with the trailing SW so maybe it will be a wash. But definitely less room to breath with less ridging and a more compressed suppressive flow in front of it. 

If one of the models spits out a harsher cutoff at some point today, I think the board will go (more) insane.

[Deck Pic]

Euro is crap....next

[psuhoffman]

Good: more amplified second SW and more consolidated system 

bad: further south and stronger lead NS wave, less separation between systems, flatter flow in front. 

[peribonca]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Good: more amplified second SW and more consolidated system 

bad: further south and stronger lead NS wave, less separation between systems, flatter flow in front. 

End result?

[Deck Pic]

Just now, peribonca said:

End result?

It's a disaster