January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Anybody expecting 6” from a system like this is the type who is gonna be disappointed a lot.

I'm just hoping we got the S/E trend suite out of the way to actually move a storm/evolution type that models almost always have historically brought northwest. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

You realize that you posted the wrong 24 hours right?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You realize that you posted the wrong 24 hours right?

lol, I was about to say...

[WxUSAF]

GGEM is also a little flatter. 12z runs have had the leading northern steam wave stronger and hence more suppressive for our storm. 

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You realize that you posted the wrong 24 hours right?

Crap. Good catch sir. 
 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

With this set up, going to be much more of a classic tendency for a N shift in the last 48 hours. Doesn’t mean it will be huge, but that’s the way I’d hedge for now. Factors playing into that will be the strength of our shortwave and its position relative to northern stream waves that are suppressing the flow enough to push it south of our latitude. If you were on @psuhoffmans first zoom chat, recall he was saying that a 500mb track along the VA/NC border was classic for DC. 6z GFS takes the shortwave on a Roanoke—Richmond—OCMD route. The slight northward component to that route indicates it’s negatively tilted at our latitude, which will help bring Atlantic moisture onshore.

I tend to agree but the one possible fly in that is the NS system over New England just ahead of it is trending stronger and south. It’s flattening the flow and preventing more ridging in front. We’re seeing a trend towards a more amplified wave as expected but if the NS continues to trend more suppressive it will offset that. 
 

ETA: btw when you are in the chats please let me know if you want to take the floor, Im 100% sure we would all love to listen to your takes. 

[WhiteoutMD]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Just how the hell am I supposed to get anything useful out of this?

This is what I take from this.  The energy (low) if quite far south tapping Gulf moisture.  This should lead to a storm coming up the coast/ near.  I don't see this as a Miller B with that look more miller A.   

[ravensrule]

25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Give a man 10" and he starts acting all cocky and stuffs

Give me 6” and I’m cocky as hell. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM is also a little flatter. 12z runs have had the leading northern steam wave stronger and hence more suppressive for our storm. 

That’s the part that typically will change the other way as we get closer IMO

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

This is what I take from this.  The energy (low) if quite far south tapping Gulf moisture.  This should lead to a storm coming up the coast/ near.  I don't see this as a Miller B with that look more miller A.   

Thanks and of course I was just kidding. A storm up the coast, however, isn’t what all of want lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I tend to agree but the one possible fly in that is the NS system over New England just ahead of it is trending stronger and south. It’s flattening the flow and preventing more ridging in front. We’re seeing a trend towards a more amplified wave as expected but if the NS continues to trend more suppressive it will offset that. 

IMO New England ns strength is often overdone and is often modeled too slow. Saw it on the last system.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s the part that typically will change the other way as we get closer IMO

I dunno that tends to be a 50/50 thing. When we get a suppressive trend the final 48 hours it’s often from a NS wave over the top timed up badly. What more often causes the north trend is guidance underestimating the southern SW and the ability for it to gain a bit more latitude than they expected. That and often guidance underestimated the banding on the NW periphery of a system. 

[87storms]

i would obviously want a better surface low reflection/track, but it does seem like this one will be harder to miss for the areas closer to the m/d line (upper level vort max is further north than the last system).  with that said, dc/bmore is looking like they're sitting pretty again so far.

[psuhoffman]

Guidance also sped up the SW with our storm a bit which also decreases the spacing. Ideally we want the lead wave faster and trailing wave slower. The trend the last run was the opposite. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

i would obviously want a better surface low reflection/track, but it does seem like this one will be harder to miss for the areas closer to the m/d line (upper level vort max is further north than the last system).  with that said, dc/bmore is looking like they're sitting pretty again so far.

Depends what you classify as a “miss”. Do I think we get totally skunked again no. But it’s possible we only get 1-3” while areas south get more if the less amplified solutions win out. 

[Warm Nose]

9 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Give me 6” and I’m cocky as hell. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, Warm Nose said:

Unfortunately that’s never happened to me so I wouldn’t know. 

[IronTy]

Yeah baby.  Like I said, she's gonna overperform...and I'm in jackpot again.  

[Interstate]

Just now, IronTy said:

Yeah baby.  Like I said, she's gonna overperform...and I'm in jackpot again.  

New drinking game... Every time we hear Jackpot... Drink

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends what you classify as a “miss”. Do I think we get totally skunked again no. But it’s possible we only get 1-3” while areas south get more if the less amplified solutions win out. 

agreed.  mostly just want to avoid a skunk at this point.  that was pretty annoying...though the models hinted at that on sunday, so it was at least somewhat expected.

[IronTy]

Just now, Interstate said:

New drinking game... Every time we hear Jackpot... Drink

I need to live long enough to see the storm.  Not sure that would be the case.  

[psuhoffman]

As is a very nice gefs run. But I want to see the NS stop trending stronger on future runs. 

keep in mind there could be high ratios with this kind of setup. We don’t need that much qpf to get some decent snowfall totals. 
UK finally joined the party somewhat. 
 

I think we’ve seen a tightening on guidance. Some of the crazy north and south solutions are gone. From here on in imo it’s about the trade off between the lead NS SW and the trailing SW. Less suppressive NS and or more separation and a more amplified north solution. Less separation or a stronger NS SW and a weaker souther solution. 

[mattie g]

49 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Give a man 10" and he starts acting all cocky and stuffs

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

As is a very nice gefs run. But I want to see the NS stop trending stronger on future runs. 

keep in mind there could be high ratios with this kind of setup. We don’t need that much qpf to get some decent snowfall totals. 
UK finally joined the party somewhat. 
 

I think we’ve seen a tightening on guidance. Some of the crazy north and south solutions are gone. From here on in imo it’s about the trade off between the lead NS SW and the trailing SW. Less suppressive NS and or more separation and a more amplified north solution. Less separation or a stronger NS SW and a weaker souther solution. 

There's the Chill middle finger right through Montgomery county

[jayyy]

36 minutes ago, 87storms said:

agreed.  mostly just want to avoid a skunk at this point.  that was pretty annoying...though the models hinted at that on sunday, so it was at least somewhat expected.

If this winter is going to continue to be dominated by a progressive flow without much ridging and southern sliders, we may need to start getting used to this feeling - at least for this season. 

These types of winters are bound to happen by sheer odds. Climo and our latitude helps us 95% of the time…. unless the primary storm track for the winter season is a suppressed one. Then it’s fairly useless.

I remember a couple of winters when I still lived up in New York where coastal NJ, NYC, LI and coastal New England kept seeing 6-8-12+ snowfalls and my location (roughly 50 miles NW of NYC - a location that averages FEET more than NYC / LI / NJ each winter with a ton more elevation ) kept getting fringed.

There was a storm that winter where places on Long Island saw nearly 2 feet of snow and we got 3” max in northern Rockland county. The very next storm had a similar outcome, just with lower totals.

 The “southern slider” winter as we called it on the old Tristateweather forum.  I believe it was also a niña winter. Storm after storm kept moving quickly and sliding underneath and off the MD / DE / southern jersey coast and tracking just close enough to hit the coast with big snows, but no dice for us inland as the ULL never got captured and we weren’t seeing much in the way of digging in the trough axis. It was flat, snowless, and frustrating as all hell. We kept saying “it’ll be our turn next time” and we waited nearly a year for our next big snowfall. 

Not saying that’s guaranteed to happen to us this winter by any means…. But it does appear like we’re in for a more frustrating winter than average and that I-95 may finally be rewarded after several consecutive dud winters. 
 

I am definitely rooting for a region-wide warning level snow from the coast to the mountains, but those seem hard to come by nowadays. I will also gladly take a region-wide 3-6” type storm as well

[StormchaserChuck!]

It actually misses north.. these maps are rarely wrong.

[chris21]

4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

It actually misses north.. these maps are rarely wrong.

That map looks far far different on pivotal.

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

It actually misses north.. these maps are rarely wrong.

 

       I think that what is happening is that the MAG site where you got this image displays "snow depth change" and not "positive snow depth change" like Tropical Tidbits does.    The distinction is that the snow depth change is going to tally snow on the ground today that melts before Thursday night as a negative.     So, if an area has 4" melt and then gets 4" of new snow, that map will show a 0.   (Even negative values are possible, but that map starts at 0.)     The positive snow depth map on Tropical Tidbits looks way different and shows several inches of new snow across VA/MD/DE.

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

       I think that what is happening is that the MAG site where you got this image displays "snow depth change" and not "positive snow depth change" like Tropical Tidbits does.    The distinction is that the snow depth change is going to tally snow on the ground today that melts before Thursday night as a negative.     So, if an area has 4" melt and then gets 4" of new snow, that map will show a 0.   (Even negative values are possible, but that map starts at 0.)     The positive snow depth map on Tropical Tidbits looks way different and shows several inches of new snow across VA/MD/DE.

That's very cool.  Thanks!

[87storms]

13 minutes ago, jayyy said:

If this winter is going to continue to be dominated by a progressive flow without much ridging and southern sliders, we may need to start getting used to this feeling - at least for this season. 

These types of winters are bound to happen by sheer odds. Climo and our latitude helps us 95% of the time…. unless the primary storm track for the winter season is a suppressed one. Then it’s fairly useless.

I remember a couple of winters when I still lived up in New York where coastal NJ, NYC, LI and coastal New England kept seeing 6-8-12+ snowfalls and my location (roughly 50 miles NW of NYC - a location that averages FEET more than NYC / LI / NJ each winter with a ton more elevation ) kept getting fringed.

There was a storm that winter where places on Long Island saw nearly 2 feet of snow and we got 3” max in northern Rockland county. The very next storm had a similar outcome, just with lower totals.

 The “southern slider” winter as we called it on the old Tristateweather forum.  I believe it was also a niña winter. Storm after storm kept moving quickly and sliding underneath and off the MD / DE / southern jersey coast and tracking just close enough to hit the coast with big snows, but no dice for us inland as the ULL never got captured and we weren’t seeing much in the way of digging in the trough axis. It was flat, snowless, and frustrating as all hell. We kept saying “it’ll be our turn next time” and we waited nearly a year for our next big snowfall. 

Not saying that’s guaranteed to happen to us this winter by any means…. But it does appear like we’re in for a more frustrating winter than average and that I-95 may finally be rewarded after several consecutive dud winters. 
 

I am definitely rooting for a region-wide warning level snow from the coast to the mountains, but those seem hard to come by nowadays. I will also gladly take a region-wide 3-6” type storm as well

the teleconnections do seem to matter on a large scale here given the fact that we're usually a boom/bust snow town, but i think a southern slider is more at play when there isn't much northern stream involvement, or just plain further north.  hopefully that's not the case this time around.  as they say...12z euro will be telling.