WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Borderline warning on the GFS, especially 10:1 Warning level snow you can sweep off your driveway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Why is it complaining to state northern neck is jacking again? It's what the GFS shows. Hey, every winter they get far less snow than you, it’s ok for them to jackpot some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You're being way too sensible here. Why not complain and make declarative statements 48 hours before the storm, you weirdo. You know this is not a KU-level storm, so it is not going to go over well!! I love snow, but this is like getting cold cuts after so many had a huge feast. I will take it because I love snow, but I need the multiple-hour SN+ to be really happy! This is not the Ji-level event, and you know it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 HMMMMM looks JMA ish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: This looks almost perfect for a "everyone is happy" result 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: I know I know its the JMA but wow Just how the hell am I supposed to get anything useful out of this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: That looks great!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Anybody expecting 6” from a system like this is the type who is gonna be disappointed a lot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody expecting 6” from a system like this is the type who is gonna be disappointed a lot. I'm just hoping we got the S/E trend suite out of the way to actually move a storm/evolution type that models almost always have historically brought northwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, snowfan said: You realize that you posted the wrong 24 hours right? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You realize that you posted the wrong 24 hours right? lol, I was about to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GGEM is also a little flatter. 12z runs have had the leading northern steam wave stronger and hence more suppressive for our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You realize that you posted the wrong 24 hours right? Crap. Good catch sir. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: With this set up, going to be much more of a classic tendency for a N shift in the last 48 hours. Doesn’t mean it will be huge, but that’s the way I’d hedge for now. Factors playing into that will be the strength of our shortwave and its position relative to northern stream waves that are suppressing the flow enough to push it south of our latitude. If you were on @psuhoffmans first zoom chat, recall he was saying that a 500mb track along the VA/NC border was classic for DC. 6z GFS takes the shortwave on a Roanoke—Richmond—OCMD route. The slight northward component to that route indicates it’s negatively tilted at our latitude, which will help bring Atlantic moisture onshore. I tend to agree but the one possible fly in that is the NS system over New England just ahead of it is trending stronger and south. It’s flattening the flow and preventing more ridging in front. We’re seeing a trend towards a more amplified wave as expected but if the NS continues to trend more suppressive it will offset that. ETA: btw when you are in the chats please let me know if you want to take the floor, Im 100% sure we would all love to listen to your takes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just how the hell am I supposed to get anything useful out of this? This is what I take from this. The energy (low) if quite far south tapping Gulf moisture. This should lead to a storm coming up the coast/ near. I don't see this as a Miller B with that look more miller A. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Give a man 10" and he starts acting all cocky and stuffs Give me 6” and I’m cocky as hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM is also a little flatter. 12z runs have had the leading northern steam wave stronger and hence more suppressive for our storm. That’s the part that typically will change the other way as we get closer IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: This is what I take from this. The energy (low) if quite far south tapping Gulf moisture. This should lead to a storm coming up the coast/ near. I don't see this as a Miller B with that look more miller A. Thanks and of course I was just kidding. A storm up the coast, however, isn’t what all of want lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I tend to agree but the one possible fly in that is the NS system over New England just ahead of it is trending stronger and south. It’s flattening the flow and preventing more ridging in front. We’re seeing a trend towards a more amplified wave as expected but if the NS continues to trend more suppressive it will offset that. IMO New England ns strength is often overdone and is often modeled too slow. Saw it on the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s the part that typically will change the other way as we get closer IMO I dunno that tends to be a 50/50 thing. When we get a suppressive trend the final 48 hours it’s often from a NS wave over the top timed up badly. What more often causes the north trend is guidance underestimating the southern SW and the ability for it to gain a bit more latitude than they expected. That and often guidance underestimated the banding on the NW periphery of a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 i would obviously want a better surface low reflection/track, but it does seem like this one will be harder to miss for the areas closer to the m/d line (upper level vort max is further north than the last system). with that said, dc/bmore is looking like they're sitting pretty again so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Guidance also sped up the SW with our storm a bit which also decreases the spacing. Ideally we want the lead wave faster and trailing wave slower. The trend the last run was the opposite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, 87storms said: i would obviously want a better surface low reflection/track, but it does seem like this one will be harder to miss for the areas closer to the m/d line (upper level vort max is further north than the last system). with that said, dc/bmore is looking like they're sitting pretty again so far. Depends what you classify as a “miss”. Do I think we get totally skunked again no. But it’s possible we only get 1-3” while areas south get more if the less amplified solutions win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Give me 6” and I’m cocky as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Warm Nose said: Unfortunately that’s never happened to me so I wouldn’t know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Yeah baby. Like I said, she's gonna overperform...and I'm in jackpot again. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, IronTy said: Yeah baby. Like I said, she's gonna overperform...and I'm in jackpot again. New drinking game... Every time we hear Jackpot... Drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Depends what you classify as a “miss”. Do I think we get totally skunked again no. But it’s possible we only get 1-3” while areas south get more if the less amplified solutions win out. agreed. mostly just want to avoid a skunk at this point. that was pretty annoying...though the models hinted at that on sunday, so it was at least somewhat expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Interstate said: New drinking game... Every time we hear Jackpot... Drink I need to live long enough to see the storm. Not sure that would be the case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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