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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

We get lucky on the NAM. It could easily screw us with its jump to the coast. It would have to be timed perfectly for it to work out the way it is showing. I would much rather have a consolidated storm passing through southern VA for us. 

The M/D crew hardly saw a flake yesterday, so this would be quite a gut punch if we miss this one south as well. RGEM has me a little concerned.

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

We get lucky on the NAM. It could easily screw us with its jump to the coast. It would have to be timed perfectly for it to work out the way it is showing. I would much rather have a consolidated storm passing through southern VA for us. 

yea, but seeing the precip developing in the tennessee valley is usually a good sign.  if it's a quick mover then it wouldn't throw back as much moisture, but i think the miller b's that are the worst are the ones where the jet streams are a little more separated and syncing up too late.  we'll see...hopefully it continues trending or at least holds.

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

yea, but seeing the precip developing in the tennessee valley is usually a good sign.  if it's a quick mover then it wouldn't throw back as much moisture, but i think the miller b's that are the worst are the ones where the jet streams are a little more separated and syncing up too late.  we'll see...hopefully it continues trending or at least holds.

This is very accurate, definitely more a hybrid. Concerning to see the southern max on some of the 12z suite models thus far and the Euro this morning after whiffing yesterday's event. 

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3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

This is very accurate, definitely more a hybrid. Concerning to see the southern max on some of the 12z suite models thus far and the Euro this morning after whiffing yesterday's event. 

the nw trend is still a thing, though.  happened last storm as well, but the northern tier needed too much work, too close to gametime.

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A lot of NAM bashing this morning and that is fine but I would like to make an observation regarding the late Sunday night/Monday morning event for my immediate area.

At 2 pm  Sunday, the following accumulation expectations from the models I sampled:  GFS  15 inches, Euro 10 inches,  GEM  11 inches,  ICON  6 inches,  NDFD  5 inches, 12 NAM   8 inches.

I received a total of 8 inches.  Yes, I am aware of all the variables that skew and taint these model wishcasts but this is an observation.

Regarding Thursday night into Friday. This will be a quick hitting system with a likely Tennessee southern Virginia track that is mostly snow north of the track, likely 2 - 5 inches for a swath across central and northern Virginia.

 

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