NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12z ICON 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 RGEM @63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We get lucky on the NAM. It could easily screw us with its jump to the coast. It would have to be timed perfectly for it to work out the way it is showing. I would much rather have a consolidated storm passing through southern VA for us. The M/D crew hardly saw a flake yesterday, so this would be quite a gut punch if we miss this one south as well. RGEM has me a little concerned. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Then at 67 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We get lucky on the NAM. It could easily screw us with its jump to the coast. It would have to be timed perfectly for it to work out the way it is showing. I would much rather have a consolidated storm passing through southern VA for us. yea, but seeing the precip developing in the tennessee valley is usually a good sign. if it's a quick mover then it wouldn't throw back as much moisture, but i think the miller b's that are the worst are the ones where the jet streams are a little more separated and syncing up too late. we'll see...hopefully it continues trending or at least holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Now that I moved back to the area…it snows again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: yea, but seeing the precip developing in the tennessee valley is usually a good sign. if it's a quick mover then it wouldn't throw back as much moisture, but i think the miller b's that are the worst are the ones where the jet streams are a little more separated and syncing up too late. we'll see...hopefully it continues trending or at least holds. This is very accurate, definitely more a hybrid. Concerning to see the southern max on some of the 12z suite models thus far and the Euro this morning after whiffing yesterday's event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 First snow maps tomorrow i would guess. . 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Is the GFS broken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Models have been wonky or slow on pivotal and TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: This is very accurate, definitely more a hybrid. Concerning to see the southern max on some of the 12z suite models thus far and the Euro this morning after whiffing yesterday's event. the nw trend is still a thing, though. happened last storm as well, but the northern tier needed too much work, too close to gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: the nw trend is still a thing, though. happened last storm as well, but the northern tier needed too much work, too close to gametime. More likely to see this storm (N/S based) trend north and west than a SS system in a Nina, so there is that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Is the GFS broken?It’s rolling in on WxBell. Out to 21. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GFS is running on IWM. Cant see surface but through 39 the vort is more consolidated out on the CO/KS border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 A lot of NAM bashing this morning and that is fine but I would like to make an observation regarding the late Sunday night/Monday morning event for my immediate area. At 2 pm Sunday, the following accumulation expectations from the models I sampled: GFS 15 inches, Euro 10 inches, GEM 11 inches, ICON 6 inches, NDFD 5 inches, 12 NAM 8 inches. I received a total of 8 inches. Yes, I am aware of all the variables that skew and taint these model wishcasts but this is an observation. Regarding Thursday night into Friday. This will be a quick hitting system with a likely Tennessee southern Virginia track that is mostly snow north of the track, likely 2 - 5 inches for a swath across central and northern Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Well, the wxbell people are the most value people on the forum now. Play by play or you're banned. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Of course I'm joking. Or am I? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Well, the wxbell people are the most value people on the forum now. Play by play or you're banned.I’ve only ever added value by posting maps! Happy to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 FYI, https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ is getting GFS data just fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GFS is going to be south judging by sfc progs at 60, and also h5 looking much more pos tilted vs 6z. Suspect we'll see the max amounts lining up with yesterdays totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GFS looks just a little flatter than previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Thru 12z fri 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Still a tasty stripe and confidence increasing for at least an accumulating snow event. Sign me up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Fringed again ... congrats Southern Md/ES 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Boy oh boy i know someone who isn't going to be happy lol 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: Fringed again ... congrats Southern Md/ES It's a northern neck winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: Fringed again ... congrats Southern Md/ES Just where we want it 48+ hours out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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