January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Snowchaser]

CMC with the gulf tap.

[jaydreb]

Pretty solid agreement among all the models.  

[yoda]

Nice 3-5 for everyone on the 00z CMC

[WinterWxLuvr]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

IMO there are 3 options on how this could evolve.  You're right the NS wave is pretty far north.  But the southern wave is pretty far south. 

Option 1: The end up too far apart and the southern wave slides off to our south and the northern wave misses to the NW and we end up in a dead zone in between.

Option 2: They consolidate and phase more into a stronger system but that process happens far enough east for the system to transfer to the coast and bomb out from there.  This is our "win" scenario

Option 3: They consolidate too early and the system tracks to far NW. 

Thinking that option 2 is very much on the table. Right now this is a light event, but I can see a blowup also.

[EastCoast NPZ]

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude you live in one of the dryest spots on the east coast!!!

On top of that its obvious from your posts that you live in a local meso scale oragraphically induced minimum within the larger regional minimum.  But you live in the shadow effect of the 4,500 foot Allegheny ridge in WV, one of the highest areas of consistent elevation in the apps.  You're in one of the worst shadow effect regions there is in the entire east coast.  But you expect that to suddenly stop or something?  Any system with a westerly flow is going to dry up to some extent in your area.  Unless you find a way to get rid of those ridges to your west.  The only setup where you typically will do better that other areas in our region wrt precip is with a slow moving coastal where you get some easterly component to the flow and it banks up against the ridges to your west.  Storms like 2016 and the first 2 in 2009-10 are where you can do very well.  But weaker systems coming from the west and southwest...well you KNOW how thats going to go. 

That is positively depressing. 

[WEATHER53]

43 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

CMC with the gulf tap.

Jeez. Tracks even better than last one ?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

IMO there are 3 options on how this could evolve.  You're right the NS wave is pretty far north.  But the southern wave is pretty far south. 

Option 1: The end up too far apart and the southern wave slides off to our south and the northern wave misses to the NW and we end up in a dead zone in between.

Option 2: They consolidate and phase more into a stronger system but that process happens far enough east for the system to transfer to the coast and bomb out from there.  This is our "win" scenario

Option 3: They consolidate too early and the system tracks to far NW. 

So option 1...when you say they miss each other, would that mean the the ns was moving faster? Kinda wondering what clues to look for over the next few days if there are any.

[Deck Pic]

0z euro is like a 7-9 pm start thursday

[Ji]

0z euro is like a 7-9 pm start thursday

Looks like its really digging

[Deck Pic]

2-4" event for most of DC/Baltimore metro....pretty weak and dry run

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

0z euro is like a 7-9 pm start thursday

Looks like its really digging

yeah...its own grave

[stormtracker]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

2-4" event for most of DC/Baltimore metro....pretty weak and dry run

Yeah, didn't look as good as 12z

[Ji]

yeah...its own grave

Looked promising...oh well. Next

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, didn't look as good as 12z

quick and dry...6-8 hour event.  Luckily it falls at night.  but 0.25" liquid aint gonna cut it for our new updated expectations of 6"+ every storm.

[WEATHER53]

I like this track also and analogs say they keep coming generally for about two weeks. 

 

[yoda]

15 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

2-4" event for most of DC/Baltimore metro....pretty weak and dry run

Not as good as 12z... but I'd take this run and run lol.  Wish it were better yes... but any snow right now is good snow

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Not as good as 12z... but I'd take this run and run lol.  Wish it were better yes... but any snow right now is good snow

Snow on snow is always a good thing.

[yoda]

00z EPS through 96

Around 30 of the 50 members have DCA >2" snow

[yoda]

morning AFD from LWX about the "event"

Thursday looks to be our next chance at any impactful weather. A
emerging shortwave trough will deepen over the Central Plains
as a surface low develops over the TN Valley. With the jet
stream orientated in a SW to NE trajectory, patten looks
indicative for a Miller B type of system: where an emerging low
out of the TN/OH valley phases its energy with a developing low
off Cape Hatteras. Guidance has been pretty persist on this set-
up, resulting in a quick moving snow event. While not expecting
amounts to be as drastic as they were yesterday at this time, do
think this system is capable of producing a more widespread
1-3" or 2-4" event with locally higher amounts possible along
the higher terrain due to upslope processes. Given the fact that
this is still a few days away, the forecast is subject to
change and confidence on any definitive outcome still remains
low at this time. However, confidence is increasing for the
possibility of a low end, plowable event. Best estimate for
timing at this juncture would be late Thursday night into Friday
morning, which would make traveling for the Friday morning
commute hazardous.

[Cobalt]

ICON likes snow for Friday

[yoda]

06z GFS is tasty... warning even for most of the region... 4-8"

[stormtracker]

6z review:

NAM is doing the usual NAM thing.  The reason why we don't have a lot of the usual meltdowns is because everybody is sleep.

RGEM:  Nice event

ICON:  Nice event

GFS:  Nice event, even better vs 0z

[yoda]

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

06z GFS is tasty... warning even for most of the region... 4-8"

 

[CAPE]

Looking ahead, this period as advertised looks really interesting. EPS very similar. 

[CAPE]

^Might be time for the SE to get in on the fun.

[yoda]

Mmmmhmmm...

 

[NorthArlington101]

Mmmmhmmm...

 

Love to see the high confidence. The overnight runs were all really great, IMO. 06z GEFS came in a touch improved as well.

[yoda]

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

Mount Holly's take on late week-

The main focus is on the Thursday night into Friday time period. A potent but fast moving low pressure system should develop in the southeastern U.S. and progress off the coast around NC/VA. With this track, our region is in the favored location for mostly snow (though depending on how close the center of the low stays to our coast, there may be a brief period of rain or sleet at the start of precipitation. Models came into better agreement with the track of this low (as compared to yesterday when some models were still showing a weak/surpressed system), however there remain some timing differences. Most guidance seems to be in agreement that this will be a quick impact (no more than 12 hours of precip), but there is question if it will be from late Thursday night through mid day Friday, or be primarily during the day Friday. The storm system is not yet fully within the period for our snow amount forecast, so we will have more details on that later today.

[Fozz]

I think just about all of us who were fringed yesterday want to lock up what the GFS is offering.