Eskimo Joe Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 FWIW, 18Z GEFS is more enthused than OP for snow. It has a 60% chance that DCA, IAD, and BWI exceed 1" snow. That's usually a good sign for an advisory level event in these parts. I'd post the graphics but they're through a paywall site. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EPS Lighter amounts on both vs 12z, but overall solid support for an area wide advisory level event. 18z RGEM and GEFS looked good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: He had to say Miller B didn't he...lol I guess with every nina those are almost inevitable... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I personally just don't the progressive trends for Friday's event, would love to see a slightly more dug in s/w that moves to the coast slightly south of where it has. Like the idea of snow being pretty widespread across guidance, but we've seen the miller B history in the past. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: He had to say Miller B didn't he...lol I guess with every nina those are almost inevitable... You'll be ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I personally just don't the progressive trends for Friday's event, would love to see a slightly more dug in s/w that moves to the coast slightly south of where it has. Like the idea of snow being pretty widespread across guidance, but we've seen the miller B history in the past. You'll be ok 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Clipper pattern for MLK weekend? Models have been hinting of a storm near the 15 th or 16 th. A time period of interest. Robust + PNA spike near this time frame and a elongated PV is forecasted as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You'll be ok I mean...THOSE are predictable (though I still hate hearing about NJ, NY, other northeast places getting it...but that's usually not too close of a call and rarely a forum divider unlike today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I mean...THOSE are predictable (though I still hate hearing about NJ, NY, other northeast places getting it...but that's usually not too close of a call and rarely a forum divider unlike today) Hudson Valley forecaster what do you think he's looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: He had to say Miller B didn't he...lol I guess with every nina those are almost inevitable... Set your sites reasonable. Expect an advisory level event. This is going to potentially be another event that we could steal within a week of being close to 20 degrees above normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The 18z GEFS actually has a lot of members that support the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Set your sites reasonable. Expect an advisory level event. This is going to potentially be another event that we could steal within a week of being close to 20 degrees above normal. Imagine the mood here if this is a 1-3” event for DC and Baltimore, only for it to bomb out further north and drop 8-12”+ from Philly to Boston. We all know a Miller B can do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Imagine the mood here if this is a 1-3” event for DC and Baltimore, only for it to bomb out further north and drop 8-12”+ from Philly to Boston. We all know a Miller B can do that. I'll be happy with that, would prefer a different outcome but already got my snow fix for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12k NAM is a very solid looking storm. Yes, it’s the 12k NAM at range. Sue me. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Yeah, NAM is pretty solid for this storm. Still a shit model, but when it's in line with other guidance, I guess it's worth mentioning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I like the threat, the NAO is not going more positive in trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 That is a pretty impressive 500mb vortex ready to plow over us on the NAM 84. Only mentioning it cause the Euro was similar. That vortex is the driver of this potential event. Assuming it tracks right over us as shown, it will ring out any available moisture in the atmosphere even if that's not much. So if the H5 track holds and the surface is cold enough it can easily over-perform similar to the 1/6/2015 clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 when does the storm specific thread come....tomorrow afternoon? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Deck Pic said: when does the storm specific thread come....tomorrow afternoon? I say as soon as the watches go up. But when with Sterling put those out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: when does the storm specific thread come....tomorrow afternoon? Sounds good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, mattie g said: I say as soon as the watches go up. But when with Sterling put those out? Not sure we'll get watches for what might be a 3-6" event. i ain't starting it....no way...just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I'll buy what the RGEM is selling 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I'll buy what the RGEM is sellingI thought that was the 12z euro lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The RGEM is a crack-azz model. Give me some of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 With the RGEM showing that, I expect the GGEM to look really nice tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 55 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12k NAM is a very solid looking storm. Yes, it’s the 12k NAM at range. Sue me. 51 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, NAM is pretty solid for this storm. Still a shit model, but when it's in line with other guidance, I guess it's worth mentioning. Even if its a crap model its still better to have it look good than bad...even the NAM can sometimes be onto something if it's occasionally handling a detail better than the other guidance. We've seen it happen. People shouldn't have to apologize for mentioning a piece of evidence...even if its not something we weight as heavily as like a GFS or Euro run. 19 minutes ago, Amped said: That is a pretty impressive 500mb vortex ready to plow over us on the NAM 84. Only mentioning it cause the Euro was similar. That vortex is the driver of this potential event. Assuming it tracks right over us as shown, it will ring out any available moisture in the atmosphere even if that's not much. So if the H5 track holds and the surface is cold enough it can easily over-perform similar to the 1/6/2015 clipper. This is the type of system that can have very high ratios somewhere on the cold side of the boundary. There can also be duel snow maxes with these types of systems, one max near the developing coastal and another further inland near the NS wave along the arctic boundary. 1 hour ago, Fozz said: Imagine the mood here if this is a 1-3” event for DC and Baltimore, only for it to bomb out further north and drop 8-12”+ from Philly to Boston. We all know a Miller B can do that. This miller b has a southern stream component that starts in the gulf coast. It's a miller b because there is some interaction and a jump to a coastal associated with the NS system but usually, and I do say usually because there can be situations where a messy transfer screws us with these also, but usually these are not the type that leave us really screwed while dumping just north of us. Don't get me wrong, further northeast will do better...but its typically a more gradual increase with a miller b that originates to our south like this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: Even if its a crap model its still better to have it look good than bad...even the NAM can sometimes be onto something if it's occasionally handling a detail better than the other guidance. We've seen it happen. People shouldn't have to apologize for mentioning a piece of evidence...even if its not something we weight as heavily as like a GFS or Euro run. This is the type of system that can have very high ratios somewhere on the cold side of the boundary. There can also be duel snow maxes with these types of systems, one max near the developing coastal and another further inland near the NS wave along the arctic boundary. This miller b has a southern stream component that starts in the gulf coast. It's a miller b because there is some interaction and a jump to a coastal associated with the NS system but usually, and I do say usually because there can be situations where a messy transfer screws us with these also, but usually these are not the type that leave us really screwed while dumping just north of us. Don't get me wrong, further northeast will do better...but its typically a more gradual increase with a miller b that originates to our south like this. Yeah I later looked at the maps more closely and figured that it's probably more of a hybrid, which often works fine for our area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'll buy what the RGEM is selling I agree my friend! Looks awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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