January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[DDweatherman]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z EPS

Lighter amounts on both vs 12z, but overall solid support for an area wide advisory level event. 18z RGEM and GEFS looked good too. 

[WxUSAF]

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

He had to say Miller B didn't he...lol I guess with every nina those are almost inevitable...

[DDweatherman]

I personally just don't the progressive trends for Friday's event, would love to see a slightly more dug in s/w that moves to the coast slightly south of where it has. Like the idea of snow being pretty widespread across guidance, but we've seen the miller B history in the past. 

[aldie 22]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

He had to say Miller B didn't he...lol I guess with every nina those are almost inevitable...

You'll be ok

[aldie 22]

11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I personally just don't the progressive trends for Friday's event, would love to see a slightly more dug in s/w that moves to the coast slightly south of where it has. Like the idea of snow being pretty widespread across guidance, but we've seen the miller B history in the past. 

You'll be ok

[frd]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Clipper pattern for MLK weekend?

Models have been hinting of a storm near the 15 th or 16 th.  A time period of interest. Robust + PNA spike near this time frame and a elongated PV is forecasted as well.   

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You'll be ok

I mean...THOSE are predictable (though I still hate hearing about NJ, NY, other northeast places getting it...but that's usually not too close of a call and rarely a forum divider unlike today)

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean...THOSE are predictable (though I still hate hearing about NJ, NY, other northeast places getting it...but that's usually not too close of a call and rarely a forum divider unlike today)

Hudson Valley forecaster what do you think he's looking for

[Eskimo Joe]

30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

He had to say Miller B didn't he...lol I guess with every nina those are almost inevitable...

Set your sites reasonable. Expect an advisory level event. This is going to potentially be another event that we could steal within a week of being close to 20 degrees above normal.

[Amped]

The 18z GEFS actually has a lot of members that support the Euro.

[Fozz]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Set your sites reasonable. Expect an advisory level event. This is going to potentially be another event that we could steal within a week of being close to 20 degrees above normal.

Imagine the mood here if this is a 1-3” event for DC and Baltimore, only for it to bomb out further north and drop 8-12”+ from Philly to Boston. We all know a Miller B can do that.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Imagine the mood here if this is a 1-3” event for DC and Baltimore, only for it to bomb out further north and drop 8-12”+ from Philly to Boston. We all know a Miller B can do that.

I'll be happy with that, would prefer a different outcome but already got my snow fix for a while. 

[NorthArlington101]

12k NAM is a very solid looking storm.

Yes, it’s the 12k NAM at range. Sue me.

[stormtracker]

Yeah, NAM is pretty solid for this storm.   Still a shit model, but when it's in line with other guidance, I guess it's worth mentioning.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I like the threat, the NAO is not going more positive in trend. 

[Amped]

That is a pretty impressive 500mb vortex ready to plow over us on the NAM 84.    Only mentioning it cause the Euro was similar.    

That vortex is the driver of this potential event. Assuming it tracks  right over us as shown, it will ring out any available moisture in the atmosphere even if that's not much.

So if the H5 track holds and the surface is cold enough it can easily over-perform similar to the 1/6/2015 clipper.

[mattie g]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

when does the storm specific thread come....tomorrow afternoon?

I say as soon as the watches go up. But when with Sterling put those out?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

when does the storm specific thread come....tomorrow afternoon?

Sounds good

[stormtracker]

I'll buy what the RGEM is selling

[Ji]

I'll buy what the RGEM is selling

I thought that was the 12z euro lol

[mattie g]

The RGEM is a crack-azz model.

Give me some of that.

[mattie g]

With the RGEM showing that, I expect the GGEM to look really nice tonight.

[psuhoffman]

55 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12k NAM is a very solid looking storm.

Yes, it’s the 12k NAM at range. Sue me.

 

51 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, NAM is pretty solid for this storm.   Still a shit model, but when it's in line with other guidance, I guess it's worth mentioning.

Even if its a crap model its still better to have it look good than bad...even the NAM can sometimes be onto something if it's occasionally handling a detail better than the other guidance.  We've seen it happen.  People shouldn't have to apologize for mentioning a piece of evidence...even if its not something we weight as heavily as like a GFS or Euro run. 

19 minutes ago, Amped said:

That is a pretty impressive 500mb vortex ready to plow over us on the NAM 84.    Only mentioning it cause the Euro was similar.    

That vortex is the driver of this potential event. Assuming it tracks  right over us as shown, it will ring out any available moisture in the atmosphere even if that's not much.

So if the H5 track holds and the surface is cold enough it can easily over-perform similar to the 1/6/2015 clipper.

This is the type of system that can have very high ratios somewhere on the cold side of the boundary.  There can also be duel snow maxes with these types of systems, one max near the developing coastal and another further inland near the NS wave along the arctic boundary. 

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

Imagine the mood here if this is a 1-3” event for DC and Baltimore, only for it to bomb out further north and drop 8-12”+ from Philly to Boston. We all know a Miller B can do that.

This miller b has a southern stream component that starts in the gulf coast.  It's a miller b because there is some interaction and a jump to a coastal associated with the NS system but usually, and I do say usually because there can be situations where a messy transfer screws us with these also, but usually these are not the type that leave us really screwed while dumping just north of us.  Don't get me wrong, further northeast will do better...but its typically a more gradual increase with a miller b that originates to our south like this. 

[Fozz]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

Even if its a crap model its still better to have it look good than bad...even the NAM can sometimes be onto something if it's occasionally handling a detail better than the other guidance.  We've seen it happen.  People shouldn't have to apologize for mentioning a piece of evidence...even if its not something we weight as heavily as like a GFS or Euro run. 

This is the type of system that can have very high ratios somewhere on the cold side of the boundary.  There can also be duel snow maxes with these types of systems, one max near the developing coastal and another further inland near the NS wave along the arctic boundary. 

This miller b has a southern stream component that starts in the gulf coast.  It's a miller b because there is some interaction and a jump to a coastal associated with the NS system but usually, and I do say usually because there can be situations where a messy transfer screws us with these also, but usually these are not the type that leave us really screwed while dumping just north of us.  Don't get me wrong, further northeast will do better...but its typically a more gradual increase with a miller b that originates to our south like this. 

Yeah I later looked at the maps more closely and figured that it's probably more of a hybrid, which often works fine for our area.

[Buddy1987]

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'll buy what the RGEM is selling

I agree my friend! Looks awesome 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'll buy what the RGEM is selling

I thought that was the 12z euro lol

Not sure why all the rgem love...I thought the last 2 runs of the RGEM were significantly better.  The 0z RGEM was a LOT less amplified and weaker...I know the 18z and 12z cut off before the main panels were visible...and maybe that's why, but imo it was headed towards a pretty big event across the area.  This solution is definitely better for places south of DC though...more amplified in this setup could mean mixing south of DC...but for places DC north I thought 0z was worse than 18 and 12z.  The NAM was a significant improvement though.  Either way minor adjustments at this range are pretty meaningless.  I also think this setup has more potential to trend north at the end.  Today's event had no chance to gain latitude with the flow over top of it.  This next system has room to climb the coast.  SO long as we still have a healthy wave and it's not squashed to nothing entering the final 48 hours I expect a trend towards slightly more amplified in the final 24-36 hours. 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Even if its a crap model its still better to have it look good than bad...even the NAM can sometimes be onto something if it's occasionally handling a detail better than the other guidance.  We've seen it happen.  People shouldn't have to apologize for mentioning a piece of evidence...even if its not something we weight as heavily as like a GFS or Euro run. 

This is the type of system that can have very high ratios somewhere on the cold side of the boundary.  There can also be duel snow maxes with these types of systems, one max near the developing coastal and another further inland near the NS wave along the arctic boundary. 

This miller b has a southern stream component that starts in the gulf coast.  It's a miller b because there is some interaction and a jump to a coastal associated with the NS system but usually, and I do say usually because there can be situations where a messy transfer screws us with these also, but usually these are not the type that leave us really screwed while dumping just north of us.  Don't get me wrong, further northeast will do better...but its typically a more gradual increase with a miller b that originates to our south like this. 

Now am I imagining things or are we seeing the southern stream wake up just a tad? (even if it's temporary I hope we can take advantage of it!)

[Buddy1987]

GFS going to be north?? Confluence looks less potent at 60

[psuhoffman]

Slightly more amplified on the ICON.  Still a pretty minor event but slight improvement.  I think/hope today was the bottoming out of the de-amplification trend and we see a slow move back towards a more amplified system from here on out.