January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

For all the talk of can kicking, this is a pretty good look right here, and there are hints on the ops and ens runs of a modest wave or 2 tracking along the boundary during the Jan 1-5 window. Just need that boundary to be far enough south.

I’m sure many will interpret my posts as towel throwing even though I said it’s not…but one thing I’d advise caution looking at that there is with how it’s likely to adjust. That is what historical analogs suggest this should evolve too so it’s east to buy into it. But we’ve seen lately that 2 things, so long as the dominant pac longwave features are the same the trough will struggle to fight off the SE ridge and the guidance is missing this past day 10 because some members do put the trough in the east which muted the SE ridge signal in the means. But what happens as we get closer is the guidance is nailing the longwave features and the troughs and ridges just sharpen up. That little muted se ridge will very likely become more of a problem in future runs until we see something upstream change.  On that I still see the n pac ridge slightly too far west, trough west of Hawaii. I don’t see anything has changed that would lend confidence it’s not again underestimating the SE ridge response.  

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

AO, WPO, EPO and the NAO are heading back to neutral in 2022 looking at the latest teleconnection charts while the PNA remains negative.  Not what we want for a major pattern change.

it is also never a good sign when I think for the first time ever JB mentioned climate change as he expressed some frustration that the pattern is not responding to the analogs.

I don’t know what he said but I mentioned 2 specific ways warming could logically be impacting this pattern. 

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

One aspect I alluded to yesterday was the waves of warming in the strat. Not sure I would categorize it as a SSWE tho. However, the ens are getting more aggressive with the SPV bullying. PSU and I discussed implications of the SPV and concluded that these warming events are sometimes catalysts in reshuffling the deck. So maybe this disruption to the spv anchor will end up being what the doctor ordered wrt to pna tho the spv is generally more high lat related. 

The high latitudes aren’t our problem and I’m not sure how much impact the strat can have on the mid latitude pacific pattern which is our main problem. 

[IronTy]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I don’t know what he said but I mentioned 2 specific ways warming could logically be impacting this pattern. 

 

I went and listened to the noted passage from JB and he was referring to the abnormally warm gulf waters similar to you.   I could sense from his voice that it was painful for him to admit it.  Will JB become an AGW convert?  Stay tuned...

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m sure many will interpret my posts as towel throwing even though I said it’s not…but one thing I’d advise caution looking at that there is with how it’s likely to adjust. That is what historical analogs suggest this should evolve too so it’s east to buy into it. But we’ve seen lately that 2 things, so long as the dominant pac longwave features are the same the trough will struggle to fight off the SE ridge and the guidance is missing this past day 10 because some members do put the trough in the east which muted the SE ridge signal in the means. But what happens as we get closer is the guidance is nailing the longwave features and the troughs and ridges just sharpen up. That little muted se ridge will very likely become more of a problem in future runs until we see something upstream change.  On that I still see the n pac ridge slightly too far west, trough west of Hawaii. I don’t see anything has changed that would lend confidence it’s not again underestimating the SE ridge response.  

 

I mentioned this in another post but the trough looks pretty locked in over the west for the next 10 days(fun times out there) but with the NAO block and slow moving vortices underneath that, we can still get transient cold and a well timed ejection of a shortwave from out west. This is happening now but too far north. That panel I posted is suggestive that maybe we get at least a brief period in early Jan where there is a bit more suppression under the block/ a little relaxation out west where a wave could track underneath and we are on the cold side. Just a big picture snapshot on a 10 day mean and it could easily deteriorate.

[IronTy]

51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

CrankyWxGuy. 

Does that light in the storm guy still post? I searched the web but couldn't find anything.  

 

ETA - nvm I found him.  Website doesn't appear to have been updated for this winter.  Bummer, I liked him too.

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I went and listened to the noted passage from JB and he was referring to the abnormally warm gulf waters similar to you.   I could sense from his voice that it was painful for him to admit it.  Will JB become an AGW convert?  Stay tuned...

I think that’s a factor but more so the other thing I said. In a -NAO/epo/pna pattern we need the trough to be broad and spread out. The cold will center west but press east. There will naturally be attempts at ridging in the east in that wavelength and we need the ridge to be suppressed. But the more you warm things in general logically the harder it is to suppress attempted ridging. The more heat you add the more ridges will win in that fight. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Give me rain in Intl falls!

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think that’s a factor but more so the other thing I said. In a -NAO/epo/pna pattern we need the trough to be broad and spread out. The cold will center west but press east. There will naturally be attempts at ridging in the east in that wavelength and we need the ridge to be suppressed. But the more you warm things in general logically the harder it is to suppress attempted ridging. The more heat you add the more ridges will win in that fight. 

Good analysis.  He didn't go into any detail on it so I don't how he's factoring the influence of the  gulf +SSTs into his thinking.

How do you square the anomalously warm gulf waters with the past 3-4 summers where we've had relatively moderate high temps and extensive precip?  I figured we'd be experiencing massive Bermuda highs and extreme heat and drought but clearly I'm wrong.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Good analysis.  He didn't go into any detail on it so I don't how he's factoring the influence of the  gulf +SSTs into his thinking.

How do you square the anomalously warm gulf waters with the past 3-4 summers where we've had relatively moderate high temps and extensive precip?  I figured we'd be experiencing massive Bermuda highs and extreme heat and drought but clearly I'm wrong.

The effects of low level heat added can be thwarted by the pattern to an extent. I’m not saying if we had a trough in the east it would still be warm. But what I’ve noticed is every ridge ends up going ape. I suspect the added heat simply adds fuel to attempted ridging. 

[psuhoffman]

The last couple Gfs runs sucked but they did get to a place we wanted at the end. If getting a huge cutter and rain to Int Falls is what it takes to shake this up so be it.

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The last couple Gfs runs sucked but they did get to a place we wanted at the end. If getting a huge cutter and rain to Int Falls is what it takes to shake this up so be it.

It is a pretty awesome comma 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

It is a pretty awesome comma 

 

 

As long as it ends like this 

[IronTy]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

As long as it ends like this 

It does seem that significant pattern changes are often ushered in by some monster storm...hopefully this evolves appropriately.  

I still believe that there has to be some snap back if only because it's so statistically unlikely that we could run the entire winter with anomalies this far above average.  There has to be some balancing out and the longer we stay this warm the more instense the snap back needs to be.  Of course that's just statistics and not considering the organic nature of weather.  I suppose the entire winter could torch and then we snap back to extreme cold in march or april when it's unwanted, we seem to do that pretty well.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

You gotta look at the kuchera maps, much more accurate than the standard 10:1.  

Sure … 24 hours out maybe

[StormchaserChuck!]

21 minutes ago, IronTy said:

It does seem that significant pattern changes are often ushered in by some monster storm...hopefully this evolves appropriately.  

I still believe that there has to be some snap back if only because it's so statistically unlikely that we could run the entire winter with anomalies this far above average.  There has to be some balancing out and the longer we stay this warm the more instense the snap back needs to be.  Of course that's just statistics and not considering the organic nature of weather.  I suppose the entire winter could torch and then we snap back to extreme cold in march or april when it's unwanted, we seem to do that pretty well.

 

Especially because we've had snapbacks at a mathematical 75-80% lately. Seems we're in a range. I believe the PNA will go positive ~Jan 15.  It will also be positive 2-21-2022.

[cbmclean]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

As long as it ends like this 

Learning moment for me.  All I see is a full-latitude ridge.  How does that get us (or at least you guys) in a better place.

[CAPE]

49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The last couple Gfs runs sucked but they did get to a place we wanted at the end. If getting a huge cutter and rain to Int Falls is what it takes to shake this up so be it.

Out of the big 3 globals it is mostly the GFS/GEFS that is delaying expansion of the cold further east. Check out the CMC ens today after Jan 1. It is smiling at us lol.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Learning moment for me.  All I see is a full-latitude ridge.  How does that get us (or at least you guys) in a better place.

full latitude stable ridge in the arctic source region...silly deep trough down south...low NE of Maine....it good

[IronTy]

28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Sure … 24 hours out maybe

45 days, 45 hours...220, 221...whatever it takes...basically the same thing.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Learning moment for me.  All I see is a full-latitude ridge.  How does that get us (or at least you guys) in a better place.

That ridge is living on borrowed time. The pacific ridge and NAO have linked. We no longer have a monster ridge off the west coast to lock the trough in the west. Roll that forward 48 hours and there is a deep trough in the east. 
 

Apply basic wave physics.  Think of the troughs and ridges as waves. Think of the basic see saw effect. Ridge digs next trough which pumps next ridge…but what if there is a rock thrown in the pond to create conflicting waves?  See saw war!  Right now the ridge in the pac is stronger than the NAO one.  So it’s digging the pna trough too much and pumping the SE ridge more than the NAO can suppress. At least if you’re south of 40. 
 

 That’s actually one detail guidance got slightly wrong. Overall the day 15 ensembles have been great at the longwave features.  People expect too much. We still aren’t that far removed from when anything past 72 hours was a crap shoot. We’ve made amazing progress Imo.  But when the current pattern was 15 days away the pac ridge was a little less anomalous and so the NAO ridge had a better chance of winning that see saw fight. 
 

Now apply all that to the plot I posted. Look how rye equation has changed. Where are the dominant features and ridges now?  What’s happened to the pac ridge/trough relationship that’s been impeding the effects of the NAO?  
 

All this is just meant to be a mental exercise because we shouldn’t be analyzing a day 16 op prog like this.  But that look would roll forward into a trough in the east. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Out of the big 3 globals it is mostly the GFS/GEFS that is delaying expansion of the cold further east. Check out the CMC ens today after Jan 1. It is smiling at us lol.

I feel like the GFS had a poor handle on the pattern we're going into now at the end of Dec. I would favor the Euro at this point. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Out of the big 3 globals it is mostly the GFS/GEFS that is delaying expansion of the cold further east. Check out the CMC ens today after Jan 1. It is smiling at us lol.

Like I said no towel throwing. You all know when I think it’s time to have an epic meltdown and nuke the season I won’t shy away.  I can Ji with the best of ‘‘em but I wait until it’s REALLY time. 
 

My pessimism is more for the period from Dec 27-Jan 3 which I initially pegged a while ago as a period of opportunity. But ~10 days ago guidance had the equation slightly off. It had the N pac ridge but not to the actual amplitude. We could have worked with this look it that pac ridge was less anomalous. But it’s just too dominant and the downstream effects  are more than the NAO can offset for places south of 40. 
 

After they is still ambiguous as it should be at that range. History still suggests eventual progression. Also, all we really need is for the pac to back off some. Not a full reshuffle. Even just a period where the pac ridge lessens somewhat and we could work with it. But…I would caution to continue to look at the amplitude and location of the features in the pac and be hesitant to buy the trough in the east until we see adequate signs that equation is changing. 

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I feel like the GFS had a poor handle on the pattern we're going into now at the end of Dec. I would favor the Euro at this point. 

Haven't seen much mention of the EPS lately.  I was assuming it was degrading the same way.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

It is a pretty awesome comma 

 

 

Easy visually to see where the mean trof is anchored.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Haven't seen much mention of the EPS lately.  I was assuming it was degrading the same way.

EPS from last night- negative temp anomalies pretty much coast to coast by Jan 4.

Canadian ens from 12z today gets anomalous cold to the east coast by Jan3, but more impressive a few days later-

 

[psuhoffman]

I’d feel better if that vortex north of Japan would move at all. It’s parked there on everything for the next 2 weeks and that feeds into the Aleutian ridge. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’d feel better if that vortex north of Japan would move at all. It’s parked there on everything for the next 2 weeks and that feeds into the Aleutian ridge. 

Earlier I had h5 animated on the 12z GEFS run and it is impressive how stable that Pac ridge is. A true block, and unfortunately it is often a fixture in a Nina. We at least need it to shift a little eastward and/or poleward at times.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Earlier I had h5 animated on the 12z GEFS run and it is impressive how stable that Pac ridge is. A true block, and unfortunately it is often a fixture in a Nina. We at least need it to shift a little eastward and/or poleward at times.

Normally poleward helps, it was one of my optimistic observations. It’s been a more poleward ridge than a mid lat Nina type. But when it is poleward it doesn’t help, it’s so strong it just sharpens the ridge/trough and digs the trough even deeper in the west.  We really need it to either shift east a few degrees and extend into western Canada OR simply weaken some. Either works. But I see neither happening until that vortex north of Japan moves. It’s feeding into the already hostile pac base state. 

[psuhoffman]

I’ll admit not having the expertise to necessarily parse this accurately. Maybe someone else can add value. But one of the things driving the colder expected pattern was that mjo phase 7 is cold in a Nina. However, the soi has been tanking and today is at -27, more Nino than Nina. Just pointing this out because phase 7 in a Nino is warm and looks a lot like what we’re seeing.  However, I know the mjo also affects the soi so…

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Like I said no towel throwing. You all know when I think it’s time to have an epic meltdown and nuke the season I won’t shy away.  I can Ji with the best of ‘‘em but I wait until it’s REALLY time. 
 

My pessimism is more for the period from Dec 27-Jan 3 which I initially pegged a while ago as a period of opportunity. But ~10 days ago guidance had the equation slightly off. It had the N pac ridge but not to the actual amplitude. We could have worked with this look it that pac ridge was less anomalous. But it’s just too dominant and the downstream effects  are more than the NAO can offset for places south of 40. 
 

After they is still ambiguous as it should be at that range. History still suggests eventual progression. Also, all we really need is for the pac to back off some. Not a full reshuffle. Even just a period where the pac ridge lessens somewhat and we could work with it. But…I would caution to continue to look at the amplitude and location of the features in the pac and be hesitant to buy the trough in the east until we see adequate signs that equation is changing. 

Thank you for the info.  I see that really nice EPO ridge almost to the pole.  So I know that is generally positive as far as cold.  I have heard it doesn't really help if the troughiness is tended to the west.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll admit not having the expertise to necessarily parse this accurately. Maybe someone else can add value. But one of the things driving the colder expected pattern was that mjo phase 7 is cold in a Nina. However, the soi has been tanking and today is at -27, more Nino than Nina. Just pointing this out because phase 7 in a Nino is warm and looks a lot like what we’re seeing.  However, I know the mjo also affects the soi so…

Now am I over-generalizing...or do the front half of nina winters tend to be more cold than warm?