mattie g Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The GFS says pretty much nothing for late week, Euro this time the one with snow. Should note the GFS has more support in all honesty (ICON, UKMET) Canadian had a storm at 12z, as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: just a thought... we had that weird fairly short one week period in early December 2013 but other then that didnt the "winter" really set in right about now in 2014 also? The current pattern has a lot of similarities to that year. We all know we also got really lucky that year on top of the pattern so I am NOT saying to expect that kind of outcome...just saying seeing similar type waves showing up right now maybe shouldnt be shocking with the pattern similarities. Yep, and it was like 80 degrees close to Xmas iirc. Lol. I haven't paid close attention to anything this year and only got interested when ens all agreed that the upper levels where it counts showed legit cold air delivery for the east. Then my next thought was "this sure reminds me of how things looked during JFM 14&15. Me and winterwxluvr constantly do the lite beer tastes great less filling thing. For my yard, no cold is no snow. Normal temps are in the 40s at their coldest for me. Without real cold air around I get F'd consistently. I always root for a cold pattern first before giving a crap about precip. Well, looks like an OK cold pattern + active storm track is on the way. Some of my biggest yard problems are going away for a time. All about storm track now and we all know a progressive -EPO/WAR pattern makes models look clueless if you track 50 mile shifts like a rabid dodig. In the upcoming pattern, if you're not expecting ops to jump all over in the mid range, you haven't been doing this long enough yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 12z EPS out yet? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z EPS out yet? lol Appreciable tick south from 06z. 2" now south of DCA. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Appreciable tick south from 06z. 2" now south of DCA. The control wants to jack similar areas as today did but leaves nobody out of it. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 +PDO pattern (-EPO or +PNA) holds now through Day 15-16, on GFS ensembles. Will probably go back to -PNA for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanInMd Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 31 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: So if Thursday/Friday works out, what are we looking at potential wise for amounts? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Maybe a little more south hopefully? Edit: Like the control. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, BryanInMd said: Hypothetically, the storm would have a much larger precip shield that today's and won't scoot eastward at our latitude. So the potential for a larger storm geographically exists. However, as of right now, the shortwave is not modeled to be nearly as vigorous as the current where it counts in the MS Valley. That would imply lower qpf maxes in general compared today. None of this matters though. We have no idea what the shortwave will look like as it rounds the base of the trough. That makes or breaks everything. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 -NAO definitely the dominant pattern this Winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Looks like we're back to northern stream systems. They tend to be drier and faster moving. The low is in a nice spot, just doesn't stay there long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yep, and it was like 80 degrees close to Xmas iirc. Lol. I haven't paid close attention to anything this year and only got interested when ens all agreed that the upper levels where it counts showed legit cold air delivery for the east. Then my next thought was "this sure reminds me of how things looked during JFM 14&15. Me and winterwxluvr constantly do the lite beer tastes great less filling thing. For my yard, no cold is no snow. Normal temps are in the 40s at their coldest for me. Without real cold air around I get F'd consistently. I always root for a cold pattern first before giving a crap about precip. Well, looks like an OK cold pattern + active storm track is on the way. Some of my biggest yard problems are going away for a time. All about storm track now and we all know a progressive -EPO/WAR pattern makes models look clueless if you track 50 mile shifts like a rabid dodig. In the upcoming pattern, if you're not expecting ops to jump all over in the mid range, you haven't been doing this long enough yet. @Bob Chill I love ya man but just give me precip and you’ll never hear a complaint. Ever. This cutoff was brutal. Literally 20 air miles south of me is a warning level snow. I got 3/4”. 10 miles north there is literally nothing. I hate missing because of precip. I can live with rain lol. We’ve had about 2” of precip here since Nov 1 But I am happy you guys got a good snow. It’s fun seeing the excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Looks like we're back to northern stream systems. They tend to be drier and faster moving. The low is in a nice spot, just doesn't stay there long. Yep, I mean we'll all take whatever we can get but this one would appear to have a max potential to it of maybe 3-6"....Hopefully we can get some coastal enhancement like the Canadian shows and cash in on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Looking at the very long range...what else is there to do but stare at my brown grass! GEFS, CMC ens and EPS have a pretty nice signal out there around D12 for a coastal. Obviously, I'm focussing on what is right in front us but just noting that having all 3 global ens look pretty similar that far out is not common. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Looking at the very long range...what else is there to do but stare at my brown grass! GEFS, CMC ens and EPS have a pretty nice signal out there around D12 for a coastal. Obviously, I'm focussing on what is right in front us but just noting that having all 3 global ens look pretty similar that far out is not common. Sorry u missed on out, but Thursday looks vey good for your area also. Thanks for the breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: @Bob Chill I love ya man but just give me precip and you’ll never hear a complaint. Ever. This cutoff was brutal. Literally 20 air miles south of me is a warning level snow. I got 3/4”. 10 miles north there is literally nothing. I hate missing because of precip. I can live with rain lol. We’ve had about 2” of precip here since Nov 1 But I am happy you guys got a good snow. It’s fun seeing the excitement. Idk man. I get plenty of rain every single winter like clockwork. Usually 10" or more. Practically every single year. Sometimes they are dry and I get 7" of rain during met winter. Never embarrassingly low totals or not totals at all tho. Snow? Give me cold on the balance and I'll never complain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I'll never complain about snow but please let it not be Sierra cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Honestly we probably wouldn't want a triple phased bomb anyways...most of the time they are going to cut even more than 1993 did and produce more rain than frozen precip along 95. We are about 7-8 miles west of I-95 and we had all frozen. Something like 8" snow (iirc wind made it hard to tell), then 3-4" sleet. Guessing that most here would take such a storm again gladly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 JB thinks there's blizzard potential and that it's going to be a cold storm. No indication on bullseye though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Well, on to the next. Nice that's its only 72 - 84 hours. If folks keep their expectations reasonable, we can do a decent 2 to 4 " system 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, IronTy said: JB thinks there's blizzard potential and that it's going to be a cold storm. No indication on bullseye though. It could be 87 degrees and JB will think there's blizzard potential. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Well.. at least temps will be a little more forgiving with this system, after a complete dud down this way with todays storm. We maybe got 2” and that was on top of elevated surfaces. Better than nothing of course but nonetheless disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I am a bit concerned about this storm de-amping down to very little, but the Euro ensembles are still pretty decent overall on 12z for the threat. More N/S this time than the S/S of today's event, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 This is first I’m following it in earnest. Can anyone explain as to what is enhancing a n/s clipper from what I’m gathering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It could be 87 degrees and JB will think there's blizzard potential. A blizzard behind every tree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 hours ago, mappy said: I appreciate your words, but sometimes i just want to hear "its a lock, get ready". There is this guy over at weatherbell… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is this guy over at weatherbell… It would mean so much more coming from you tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 38 minutes ago, IronTy said: JB thinks there's blizzard potential and that it's going to be a cold storm. No indication on bullseye though. Seems like it. Just have to go 500 miles north to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 38 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, on to the next. Nice that's its only 72 - 84 hours. If folks keep their expectations reasonable, we can do a decent 2 to 4 " system 6-10" is the new 2-4". 2" would suck. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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