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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

13-14 and 14-15 weren't at least decent for you? 

We did ok but it wasn't as good as further inland.  I'm basically right on the bay so we often get mixing which kills accumulation.  I'm sure that'll happen here too even in the best scenario.  I'm getting a little bit too pumped up but like I said earlier this shit rarely happens down here so I'm giving myself a free pass. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Short Pump ftw?

In all seriousness that late week storm has the potential to be a big one. It really bombs out off the coast. A little earlier and we get wrecked. It's nice to have some stuff to track at least. 

It has potential to be big for someone for sure, but the track is going to be touchy and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it bounce around more. Without any blocking, it’s just a shortwave riding along the longwave trough and where that longwave trough axis is will dictate where the storm develops and tracks. Also a stronger shortwave would cut in this situation because there’s no blocking. But there’s a lot of baroclinicity to tap into between warm ocean and a solidly chilly airmass. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It has potential to be big for someone for sure, but the track is going to be touchy and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it bounce around more. Without any blocking, it’s just a shortwave riding along the longwave trough and where that longwave trough axis is will dictate where the storm develops and tracks. Also a stronger shortwave would cut in this situation because there’s no blocking. But there’s a lot of baroclinicity to tap into between warm ocean and a solidly chilly airmass. 

Yeah I don't see the potential for it to be big. No blocking means it just zips along.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

It has potential to be big for someone for sure, but the track is going to be touchy and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it bounce around more. Without any blocking, it’s just a shortwave riding along the longwave trough and where that longwave trough axis is will dictate where the storm develops and tracks. Also a stronger shortwave would cut in this situation because there’s no blocking. But there’s a lot of baroclinicity to tap into between warm ocean and a solidly chilly airmass. 

I was going to say…there’s nothing keeping this storm from racing to the NE. With the current look, I think someone could get 8-10 hours of good snow, but not what we usually think of as a really big one. Maybe like a 6-8” event, which would be awesome, but not a truly big boy.

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2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I was going to say…there’s nothing keeping this storm from racing to the NE. With the current look, I think someone could get 8-10 hours of good snow, but not what we usually think of as a really big one. Maybe like a 6-8” event, which would be awesome, but not a truly big boy.

Yeah. It could be a warning level event for some, but it’s not a ton more. Definitely reminds me of some of the 13-14 type events without Atlantic side blocking.

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the late week threat pops a surface low in a pretty good spot, but would like to see the trough a little further west and an earlier development.  monday seems a little more of a wishcasting event, but either way both are a nice diversion from having to prep for PI planning the following week (if you work in agile you'll know what i'm talking about).

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1 hour ago, 87storms said:

the late week threat pops a surface low in a pretty good spot, but would like to see the trough a little further west and an earlier development.  monday seems a little more of a wishcasting event, but either way both are a nice diversion from having to prep for PI planning the following week (if you work in agile you'll know what i'm talking about).

Ah shit…I have PI Planning this Tuesday and Wednesday. Only good thing is that my scrum masters will be taking the reins for my dev teams this time around (with my guidance), whereas I used to handle it all for my team of 30.

The Friday deal is going to be all over the guidance until 48-72 hours out. As long as we remain in the game, it’ll make this week much more bearable.

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2 hours ago, mattie g said:

Ah shit…I have PI Planning this Tuesday and Wednesday. Only good thing is that my scrum masters will be taking the reins for my dev teams this time around (with my guidance), whereas I used to handle it all for my team of 30.

The Friday deal is going to be all over the guidance until 48-72 hours out. As long as we remain in the game, it’ll make this week much more bearable.

Lol I’m just a ba though do fill in for my sm. Definitely don’t think I’d want that job. Need to have some legitimate referee skills. I mostly feel bad for the devs because we have a deliverable around that timeframe though I think I need to present this time. It is what it is.

re weather…agreed. Snow on snow for dc would be cool. We’re still pretty decent at jan/Feb.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:
Uh oh

This is a 2 week winter like 99-00

I liked  this one right from the start and you know it from when you ribbed me about Pitt vs Boston.  Pitt will be colder so that’s good and I said high wouldn’t suppress nor shunt East.  Now it’s models but satellite stuff currently is looking right and the analogs showed this and cold that follows. Lots of  different methods in agreement !!!

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