SnowenOutThere Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, IronTy said: I'd just find it funny if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 This right here continues to show GFS SE bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: GFS also has a late week storm storm on Friday. Heaviest is a bit south but still good for the cities. I'll be on bended knee tonight saying a few pledge of allegiances and listening to Whitney Houston stars and stripes and watching D-Day footage to help give the GFS support. If ever there was a time to support America, this is it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 psu wouldn't like this much. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The rap has gone insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: psu wouldn't like this much. I’m not smart enough to know what will happen, but I’m also not dumb enough to think that’s right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 If both of these hit for RIC my snowfall entry will suffer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Slightly higher heights out in front at 30 on 12z CMC compared to 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: psu wouldn't like this much. It’s super rare but not impossible. Richmond got more snow than up here in 1980 for example. But I’m not worried and if it happens oh well. Things balance out in the long run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The rap has gone insane I’ll take the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It’s super rare but not impossible. Richmond got more snow than up here in 1980 for example. But I’m not worried and if it happens oh well. Things balance out in the long run. That's the year I was born. Coincidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 12z CMC almost into the cities... but big shift NW compared to 00z run... like big movement NW 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: It’s super rare but not impossible. Richmond got more snow than up here in 1980 for example. But I’m not worried and if it happens oh well. Things balance out in the long run. lol we know that's not happening in the current regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Mixed signals how do we know it's legit without any meaningful support from meso guidance? Bizarre storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 January will borderline storms, as the N. Hemisphere continues to revolve around the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z CMC almost into the cities... but big shift NW compared to 00z run... like big movement NW Like look at the snow map (yeah yeah I know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z CMC almost into the cities... but big shift NW compared to 00z run... like big movement NW The only good recent run of the CMC was 12z yesterday. So this is encouraging or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Weee lol... around an inch in DC and quickly increases the farther south and southeast you go. EZF is 3 to 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I'm thinking we see some winter storm watches for some tonight 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I'm thinking we see some winter storm watches for some tonight Someone gonna start the thread once the warnings are hoisted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Someone gonna start the thread once the warnings are hoisted? If it's not region-wide then I have mixed feelings about starting a thread. I've come a long way from my degenerate weenie days. This storm is playing us like a fiddle. I cannot wait to see the disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Running low on time for the kind of shift we need at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Anyone know anything about the FV3 Hi-Res? Does it run off the same core/physics/whatever the term is as the current GFS? They couldn’t look more different on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: Someone gonna start the thread once the warnings are hoisted? AKQ will be cautious and wait for 0z runs. LWX probably the same. My guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The runway is getting full- lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: This storm is playing us like a fiddle. I cannot wait to see the disappointment. The odds say you are correct. Yet, like a gambler on a 20+ bet losing streak, can we get some luck? At least those of us near 95 who saw almost nothing but sleet last year? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1980 was the biggest +PNA on record, +2.42... we actually have a -PDO (GOA low, ridge west) for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On the coming “waves” in the next week… these are the type systems that depend on discreet details that won’t be known until the last minute. And to make matters worse there is often a nice band that develops in response to where the confluence/subsidence cuts off the precip. There is likely to be a very sharp cutoff and models won’t nail that until within 24 hours. I’m not going to waste you’re time pretending I know where it will be but obviously places southeast seem favored ATT. The next threat will develop as a wave forms in response to the jet on the front side of a digging amplifying trough. This is somewhat similar to waves we got in 2014-15. Where this ends up will depend partially on how the PV split happening at that time evolves. The whole trough is pinwheeling and amplifying around that process. It’s way to volatile to try to pin down at range but I do think the idea of a healthy wave in response to this process is correct. Long range I like this evolving pattern quite a bit. I know I poo pood pac with no high lat help recently but that’s now what I see happening now. All guidance is now showing a significant TPV disruption happening due to a wave 2 hit this week. The TPV elongates with a lope getting displaced south on our side. The euro has backed off a raging +AO. The numbers might not look great but I’ve said the numerical index can be deceiving. Below are the Gefs end EPS both show the elongated tpv (red). Both have ridging in the HL. The gefs connects a ridge bridge all the way across the top because it completely splits the tpv. EPS severely elongates and displaces the tpv but both have plenty of ridging up top to do what we need which is displace the tpv and get cold discharged into the mid latitudes. The pac pattern puts the trough in the east. That high lat wouldn’t be good enough if the pac was garbage but that’s a good combo there. Again trade offs. Great pac longwave pattern and decent high lat is a winning match. This look reminds me a lot of 2014 and 2015 where the details up top helped enough for a pac driven longwave pattern to work. 2014 with enough ridging poleward in the epo side and 2015 with a displaced tpv on the Atlantic side. This is kind of a combo of both. This is not a hecs look. But this is the kind of look that would produce boundary waves and some would be suppressed enough. This isn’t the kind of pattern nwp is going to pick out threats at long range though. Remember most of the snows in 2014 and 2015 weren’t on our radar at all past 72 hours. 9 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 FWIW (probably fairly little), here are the latest ENS runs for our Monday threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol we know that's not happening in the current regime. If it does good for them. I’ll get snow up here eventually. I’ll live if I miss a couple storms. Doesn’t mean I won’t be a little irked seeing deck pics from central VA while I have bare lawn but I’ll get over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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