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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

GFS also has a late week storm storm on Friday. Heaviest is a bit south but still good for the cities. 

I'll be on bended knee tonight saying a few pledge of allegiances and listening to Whitney Houston stars and stripes and watching D-Day footage to help give the GFS support.  If ever there was a time to support America, this is it.  

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1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Someone gonna start the thread once the warnings are hoisted?

If it's not region-wide then I have mixed feelings about starting a thread. I've come a long way from my degenerate weenie days.

This storm is playing us like a fiddle. I cannot wait to see the disappointment.

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On the coming “waves” in the next week… these are the type systems that depend on discreet details that won’t be known until the last minute. And to make matters worse there is often a nice band that develops in response to where the confluence/subsidence cuts off the precip. There is likely to be a very sharp cutoff and models won’t nail that until within 24 hours. I’m not going to waste you’re time pretending I know where it will be but obviously places southeast seem favored ATT. 
 

The next threat will develop as a wave forms in response to the jet on the front side of a digging amplifying trough. This is somewhat similar to waves we got in 2014-15. Where this ends up will depend partially on how the PV split happening at that time evolves. The whole trough is pinwheeling and amplifying around that process. It’s way to volatile to try to pin down at range but I do think the idea of a healthy wave in response to this process is correct. 
 

Long range I like this evolving pattern quite a bit. I know I poo pood pac with no high lat help recently but that’s now what I see happening now. All guidance is now showing a significant TPV disruption happening due to a wave 2 hit this week. The TPV elongates with a lope getting displaced south on our side. The euro has backed off a raging +AO. The numbers might not look great but I’ve said the numerical index can be deceiving. 
Below are the Gefs end EPS

2DC09470-F3F1-4F8B-9FA7-D74D377353E8.thumb.jpeg.abd3f35c6bf2efa191c7b3969ab3258a.jpeg

5311E7D2-8B72-4E4B-A228-04A45949CB80.thumb.jpeg.deed8064f35500183062bc717b83cb85.jpeg

both show the elongated tpv (red). Both have ridging in the HL. The gefs connects a ridge bridge all the way across the top because it completely splits the tpv. EPS severely elongates and displaces the tpv but both have plenty of ridging up top to do what we need which is displace the tpv and get cold discharged into the mid latitudes. The pac pattern puts the trough in the east. That high lat wouldn’t be good enough if the pac was garbage but that’s a good combo there. Again trade offs. Great pac longwave pattern and decent high lat is a winning match.  This look reminds me a lot of 2014 and 2015 where the details up top helped enough for a pac driven longwave pattern to work. 2014 with enough ridging poleward in the epo side and 2015 with a displaced tpv on the Atlantic side. This is kind of a combo of both.  
 

This is not a hecs look. But this is the kind of look that would produce boundary waves and some would be suppressed enough. This isn’t the kind of pattern nwp is going to pick out threats at long range though. Remember most of the snows in 2014 and 2015 weren’t on our radar at all past 72 hours. 

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol we know that's not happening in the current regime.

If it does good for them. I’ll get snow up here eventually. I’ll live if I miss a couple storms. Doesn’t mean I won’t be a little irked seeing deck pics from central VA while I have bare lawn but I’ll get over it. 

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