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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Basically the MJO is stalled out which affects the pacific jet stream to not extend as much leading to a continuation of the current pattern. Though the MJO should reach where we need it to be but it might not move till early January. My question is: at what point do we say that the MJO won’t progress, as in when do we through in the towel? By New Years if the change has still been kicked down the road?

Well you don't throw in the towel. Historically a wave of that magnitude is favored to moved into phase 8, and some guidance is suggesting it may not occur until around mid month. If that is the case we will probably see some transient cold periods but the mean trough will likely remain out west.

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10 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Does anybody remember the name of the weather blog by that guy who basically hated the world and lamented twitter weenies all the time in his posts?  He had homer simpson as his avatar I think.  He used to post good stuff on his website but I totally forgot what the name of it was.  

Crankywxguy?

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12 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Does anybody remember the name of the weather blog by that guy who basically hated the world and lamented twitter weenies all the time in his posts?  He had homer simpson as his avatar I think.  He used to post good stuff on his website but I totally forgot what the name of it was.  

Cranky weather guy I think. He stopped posting last winter iirc.

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22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For all the talk of can kicking, this is a pretty good look right here, and there are hints on the ops and ens runs of a modest wave or 2 tracking along the boundary during the Jan 1-5 window. Just need that boundary to be far enough south.

 

Something tells me that in that setup, we aren’t talking about tracking something from 10 days out. If we can stay on the right side of the boundary, it’s more likely we’d have legit threat show up within 5 days IMO. 

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AO, WPO, EPO and the NAO are heading back to neutral in 2022 looking at the latest teleconnection charts while the PNA remains negative.  Not what we want for a major pattern change.

it is also never a good sign when I think for the first time ever JB mentioned climate change as he expressed some frustration that the pattern is not responding to the analogs.

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Something tells me that in that setup, we aren’t talking about tracking something from 10 days out. If we can stay on the right side of the boundary, it’s more likely we’d have legit threat show up within 5 days IMO. 

Probably but we are seeing hints even at this range, so something to continue to monitor. 10 days out it's just big picture, and highly subject to change with the volatility in the overall pattern.

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Probably but we are seeing hints even at this range, so something to continue to monitor. 10 days out it's just big picture, and highly subject to change with the volatility in the overall pattern.

Yep, for sure. And to your earlier point, with the majority of talk this AM about can kicking, I’d take a gamble with that look any day over the pattern we are dealing with now. 

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18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

AO, WPO, EPO and the NAO are heading back to neutral in 2022 looking at the latest teleconnection charts while the PNA remains negative.  Not what we want for a major pattern change.

it is also never a good sign when I think for the first time ever JB mentioned climate change as he expressed some frustration that the pattern is not responding to the analogs.

Some of the seasonal models keep the negative PNA pattern for the duration of the winter.  We certainly will need some luck to score at this lower latitude. Cannot overemphasize the importance of some cooperation from the Pac.

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Aside from this 24-hr current transient shift to a neutral PNA, when the PNA is progged to actually shift to positive and is under 100 hours out, then our window is opening. Until then as we enter Jan, we are going to be relying on historic climo, and I'm not sure we can count on this like we did 15 years ago. 

Eta: fixed typo

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Quote

 

Aside from this 24-hr current transient shift to a neutral PNA, when the PNA is progged to actually shift to negative and is under 100 hours out, then our window is opening. Until then as we enter Jan, we are going to be relying on historic climo, and I'm not sure we can count on this like we did 15 years ago. 


 

 

Thought we wanted a shift towards +PNA ?

 

 

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One aspect I alluded to yesterday was the waves of warming in the strat. Not sure I would categorize it as a SSWE tho. However, the ens are getting more aggressive with the SPV bullying. PSU and I discussed implications of the SPV and concluded that these warming events are sometimes catalysts in reshuffling the deck. So maybe this disruption to the spv anchor will end up being what the doctor ordered wrt to pna tho the spv is generally more high lat related. 

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it's a west coast winter to start things off (though they could use the snow).  hopefully they can share at some point because i am ready for a snowstorm, but the latest gfs run is not very inspiring.  pretty unusual to enter january with hardly a trace of snow, which is indicative of the dry weather we've had overall (the drought thread is the real show right now).  on the bright side, trails have been in great shape.

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4 hours ago, Ji said:
5 hours ago, CAPE said:
Good thread from griteater on the pattern progression wrt AAM and MJO.
 
 

The ensembles are definitely kicking the csn now. Psu cant really argue that. That se ridge a monster

The last 72 hours was a definite change.   But you can’t just jump on things the first run something hints, and it happens non linearly with some good runs mixed back in, but it’s undeniable the guidance is backing away from any progression of the pacific pattern and that the N pac ridge will be too dominant for the NAO to have enough impact. 
 

I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s kicking the can as much as just stalling the pac progression. Speculating on what’s gone wrong, yes some of the mjo wave makes it into 8 but it’s really weak and now there are other areas of convection in less ideal locations so maybe the mjo won’t have the influence needed to fight the Nina base state. 
 

Additionally the pac ridge pna trough combo isn’t just typical Nina. It’s near record breaking. Early in winter thats too  much for the NAO to fight off. If we repeated this in Feb/March we might have a better chance.  
 

Heavy speculation but could climate change play a factor?  The gulf is on fire and adding latent heat to ridging in the east. When there is less cold globally it also stands to reason the cold will be less expansive where it is concentrated.  That’s a problem when we have a -NAO -epo, -pna because the cold will dump west initially then we need it to eject and spread east under the block. Analogs suggest that’s typical. It’s not happening this time. At least not yet. 
 

Lastly I’m not tossing winter. This isn’t my post in Dec 2019 when I pretty much trashed our chances the whole season. There are still enough positives to work with in the base state to hope we get some periods of opportunity. I still have not given up on January if the pac can either back off or progress some.  But the NAO won’t stay negative forever and we’re wasting prime time right now.

What to look for that would be a sign this season was going in the tank like 2002 or 2020…if the pac ridge continues to be as strong and sinks into the mid latitude and AO goes raging positive it’s game over. That’s a stable pattern that often lasts months snd would eat away what’s left of winter. There is no sign of that yet but that’s a way this could evolve where I would admit it’s game over. 
 

 

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3 hours ago, IronTy said:

Does anybody remember the name of the weather blog by that guy who basically hated the world and lamented twitter weenies all the time in his posts?  He had homer simpson as his avatar I think.  He used to post good stuff on his website but I totally forgot what the name of it was.  

CrankyWxGuy. 

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