IronTy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, peribonca said: By Sunday morning we're going to hope the North trend stops Precip shield is gonna be in tug hill by Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 47 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: This should make everyone happy this evening. Look at that thing backing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, peribonca said: By Sunday morning we're going to hope the North trend stops I would be pretty surprised if that ends up being the issue with this setup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, peribonca said: By Sunday morning we're going to hope the North trend stops not really 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I would be pretty surprised if that ends up being the issue with this setup.This could also be the last tick and it starts to tick south again. Seen that scenario way too many times 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 If your stuck in this no weather discussion, sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: I would be pretty surprised if that ends up being the issue with this setup. This could also be the last tick and it starts to tick south again. Seen that scenario way too many times The low isn't trending NW. This has to do with the timing and the sharpness of the shortwave. The wave is moving along a strong cold front where winds will be shifting to Northwesterly. You know what the only 'failure mode' is here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Updated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 28 minutes ago, peribonca said: By Sunday morning we're going to hope the North trend stops Not me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: The low isn't trending NW. This has to do with the timing and the sharpness of the shortwave. The wave is moving along a strong cold front where winds will be shifting to Northwesterly. You know what the only 'failure mode' is here. Perhaps, but the end result is a low position to the nw of prior solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Perhaps, but the end result is a low position to the nw of prior solutions. Depends how many runs you want to go back and evaluate. 20? 10? Look at the last 4-5 GFS runs. The surface low track is the same- east and off the NC coast. How far north can the precip shield realistically get with a track straight off the coast at that latitude, and a strong cold front pressing southeastward? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Depends how many runs you want to go back and evaluate. 20? 10? Look at the last 4-5 GFS runs. The surface low track is the same- east and off the NC coast. How far north can the precip shield realistically get with a track straight off the coast at that latitude, and a strong cold front pressing southeastward? Not saying your wrong at all but I would say if the cold push isn't as strong then we could see it trend north. I know you know this but the cold push always seems weaker than modeled but we're getting kind of late in the game now for that. My guess is it doesn't trend apprcreiably north to effect areas from DC north but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Depends how many runs you want to go back and evaluate. 20? 10? Look at the last 4-5 GFS runs. The surface low track is the same- east and off the NC coast. How far north can the precip shield realistically get with a track straight off the coast at that latitude, and a strong cold front pressing southeastward? Not far, I agree. But I think if that low track was just west of the Albemarle sound we might be in business. I think a slight delay in that trough moving east and a little more neg tilt we might get it. Probably won’t though lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 WB 12Z EPS. I am looking beyond early next week…. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: Not saying your wrong at all but I would say if the cold push isn't as strong then we could see it trend north. I know you know this but the cold push always seems weaker than modeled but we're getting kind of late in the game now for that. My guess is it doesn't trend apprcreiably north to effect areas from DC north but who knows. Like I said, getting 'some' snow from this (in our region in general) is a function of timing and sharpness of the wave, not the track shifting. My guess is the moisture will have mostly exited SE and I might see some flakes flying in the NW winds. A coating would be cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 WB 12Z EPS. I am looking beyond early next week….Show me snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 DT 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Like I said, getting 'some' snow from this (in our region in general) is a function of timing and sharpness of the wave, not the track shifting. My guess is the moisture will have mostly exited SE and I might see some flakes flying in the NW winds. A coating would be cool. I'd take anything at this point. My guess is I'm way to far NW to see anything from the Monday system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5/9 Richmond's biggest storms were in December.. 4/9 all other months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS. I am looking beyond early next week…. Show me snow You did not say from what year…fond memories of 2010, a winter not to be repeated in my lifetime. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just can't get it to climb at all. It's a killer it won't climb and wrap up a little. Just skirts ENE out to sea from OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Watching the models trend but still stay SE is like twisting a loose piece of skin off of your cuticle it's painful but you keep twisting because it kind of hurts but kinda feels good. Then it rips off and it just ****ing hurts 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Watching the models trend but still stay SE us like twisting a loose piece of skin off of your cuticle it's painful but you keep twisting because it kind of hurts but kinda feels good. Then it rips off and it just ****ing hurts I'm ashamed I related to this as much we I did, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 WB 18Z EURO…Even where it is snowing in SE VA it is above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO…Even where it is snowing in SE VA it is above freezing. this one needs to start the nw trend asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: this one needs to start the nw trend asap. There is no model that supports accumulating snow for the DC metro and points N from Monday’s storm. It is December 31, not Mid March. Don’t give up hope yet!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Speaking of hope, 18Z GEFS. I will be disappointed if we don’t see flakes by mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 36 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Speaking of hope, 18Z GEFS. I will be disappointed if we don’t see flakes by mid January. Nice looking PAC heading out towards mid month. Atl isn't ideal but we've seen worse and this look is serviceable: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nice looking PAC heading out towards mid month. Atl isn't ideal but we've seen worse and this look is serviceable: I’ll take my chances with that vs the absolute garbage PAC we have now even with a favorable Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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