stormtracker Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 precip shield is norther...heavies more norther...but still just outside on the doorstep for DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Closer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: precip shield is norther...heavies more norther...but still just outside on the doorstep for DC Good for now, with time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 This should make everyone happy this evening. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Good for now, with time Like 25miles further NW would be money 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Still ticking north with plenty of time to go. We take, abscond, whatever. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 This should make everyone happy this evening. If we get a few more ticks like this...game on 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Like 25miles further NW would be money Perhaps for once the trend is our friend. Maybe a legit Brine Watch coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 How many model runs do we have before game time? A tick like this each run up until the first flakes and we are golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 FWIW, 12z EPS was quite tasty in the extended 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 FWIW, 12z EPS was quite tasty in the extendedDidnt psu end winter yesterday due to eps? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Quite the tight snowfall gradient on the 18z RGEM... worse than 12z definitely... but goes from nothing for Ji to like 6 inches for me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Quite the tight snowfall gradient on the 18z RGEM I thought it looked warm-ish on an earlier post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: This should make everyone happy this evening. If we get a few more ticks like this...game on That shows a pretty definitive west trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: This should make everyone happy this evening. Trend is currently our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Quite the tight snowfall gradient on the 18z RGEM... worse than 12z definitely... but goes from nothing for Ji to like 6 inches for me lol Almost trended towards looking like a usable piece of guidance. I remember it having a cold bias previously... it and the HDRPS surely have a constant issue with overdoing banding/QPF. Noticed it in the summer too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Trend NW is too fast, I don't like it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 One more post before I allow myself to enjoy my New Year's Eve and not track a storm I won't be in Virginia for: the GEFS/EPS look pretty similar. If I was setting expectations and was currently in Arlington, I'd allow myself to be hopeful but take the ensemble blend and see a pretty likely outcome. YMMV. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: Trend NW is too fast, I don't like it. Yes getting close to the danger zone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 18z GEFS I'm going to guess will have a few snowy members, as in like 4". Haven't seen it, just surmising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 18z GEFS I'm going to guess will have a few snowy members, as in like 4". Haven't seen it, just surmisingMean is relatively similar to that of above but a slight tick better. For comparison… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Mean is relatively similar to that of above but a slight tick better. For comparison… 18z GEFS is definitely better for those in EZF/RIC area and S MD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Mean is relatively similar to that of above but a slight tick better. For comparison… Thats about 25% which get the 2" line near or into DC... not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Thats about 25% which get the 2" line near or into DC... not badFrankly adding that second map half refuted my nice post earlier: not much of a consensus within the GEFS, lol. Guess that’s what a blend is for, but hardly makes you confident in any outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Keep coming NW… hard! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 If this is a hit then score a win for the GFS, which had a clue days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Weatherbug has upgraded to "snow likely with a chance of rain". I'd feel better if it were Sunday morning and I was getting this news. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 By Sunday morning we're going to hope the North trend stops 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3" qpf, a miracle would do it We need the GOA Low to trend more SW/dig more. I've seen it, actually this is a common model trend for the same timeframe as we get closer(1st low breaking in a pattern). The problem is, I think we can reestablish -PNA a bit (red circle). GOA Low stays strong and digs more, we have a snowstorm. 1:10 odds I'd say, full phase 1:50. (I have a feeling not everyone is reading my posts) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, peribonca said: By Sunday morning we're going to hope the North trend stops LWX not impressed at the last update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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