SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Most important Euro run of the season because this is the only real threat we have had coming up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: CMC looked good I thought Lol it looked better than gfs How did the Ukie look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: How did the Ukie look? The Ukie was more like the GFS than it was at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: The Ukie was more like the GFS than it was at 00z. Nice. Thank u sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: CMC looked good I thought Yeah, my bad. Was looking at 6z. It does look good. Probably a tad better than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I’ll try my hand — seeing some fairly marked differences between the GFS/CMC and EURO through hr63. Don’t think it’ll get there this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’ll try my hand — seeing some fairly marked differences between the GFS/CMC and EURO through hr63. Don’t think it’ll get there this time. Might wanna hold up a min... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Holds rather steady from 06z. Good storm for the Tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Might wanna hold up a min... Yeah it’s definitely an improvement over the last few runs. H5 is close. I mean i guess it’s not ova right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 We can will it north. We have plenty of time to build up our inevitable disappointment. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Looked much closer than last night's 0z. I didn't see 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Looked much closer than last night's 0z. I didn't see 06z.Making no statement on the H5/how close it is to something better: 00z actually had more snow for the DC/NOVA area than 12z. Compared to 6z, this run is pretty similar with the difference of a slightly more robust northern shield that goes thru Charlottesville and just being better organized, leading to a tighter looking/more intense snow band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Honestly, EURO looks very much like the UKIE. Reminds me of the days where the UKIE would seem to be fairly predictive of its European cousin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Making no statement on the H5/how close it is to something better: 00z actually had more snow for the DC/NOVA area than 12z. Compared to 6z, this run is pretty similar with the difference of a slightly more robust northern shield that goes thru Charlottesville and just being better organized, leading to a tighter looking/more intense snow band. That was flukish and only very light snow. The 12z EC is further SW and more wrapped up at H5. It produces a stronger storm and heavier precipitation right near the coast. If you want something more than a trivial snow event locally, IMO this run was much closer than last night's. It's still not there yet, however. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 WeatherBug just changed over from straight rain to rain/snow Sunday night. A good sign. Just need the euro another 50miles north which at this point I feel a lot better of than hoping for a 50mi south jog. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 That was flukish and only very light snow. The 12z EC is further SW and more wrapped up at H5. It produces a stronger storm and heavier precipitation right near the coast. If you want something more than a trivial snow event locally, IMO this run was much closer than last night's. It's still not there yet, however.For sure - if I was gambling on a northern/more amped trend, I’d take the 12z by a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Might have to head down to Chincoteague for this one. Never seen snow down there before on the wildlife refuge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 ECM caved on the late week snow chance to the rainy GFS, isn't that the Ji rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 if we get snow in our area...it probably means it will be somewhat substantial since its likely as a result of a stronger more neg tilted SW euro kills our snow chances for late next week. I hate that model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: if we get snow in our area...it probably means it will be somewhat substantial since its likely as a result of a stronger more neg tilted SW euro kills our snow chances for late next week. I hate that model Always go with the model with the least amount of snow. I believe that's your rule right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Always go with the model with the least amount of snow. I believe that's your rule right? yep...no matter how badly you want to believe the euro is right...if the euro says snow and gfs no...its gonna be a no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 This is a pretty good +PNA, but do you see my point about the NAO, we directly correlate right to positive. If we can trend less +NAO or more -AO, this is a good snow chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Might need to drive to the family beach place. Cause why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Might need to drive to the family beach place. Cause why not?To see non accumulating snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, H2O said: Might need to drive to the family beach place. Cause why not? To see non accumulating snow? Haven’t seen an aleet yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 If it passes over or slightly north of Atlanta then we are usually good. South of Atlanta bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: If it passes over or slightly north of Atlanta then we are usually good. South of Atlanta bad. as long as its 35 in pittsburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: as long as its 35 in pittsburg No. Need it colder in Pitt than Boston to show cold air angled correctly. In this case that’s not an issue but strength of high is . How you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, Ji said: 28 minutes ago, H2O said: Might need to drive to the family beach place. Cause why not? To see non accumulating snow? When Norfolk has more snow than JYO you will say you want to move there 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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