87storms Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: If a storm does exist like on the 12z GFS we could see a legit north trend that lets us get a decent amount of snow. Probably nothing major though. The main issue as others have said is that only the GFS and RGEM show a storm that even has the possibility to trend better for us. Once the Euro, Canadian or NAMs get on board then we can be excited. if the gfs is right and we get a north trend, it would be a major snowstorm here imo. 500 is almost a perfect pass. the question is whether it's believable with cold air chasing the precip. i hope it's right, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: If a storm does exist like on the 12z GFS we could see a legit north trend that lets us get a decent amount of snow. Probably nothing major though. The main issue as others have said is that only the GFS and RGEM show a storm that even has the possibility to trend better for us. Once the Euro, Canadian or NAMs get on board then we can be excited. Going off the last few Winters, nobody should be excited til the snow is falling 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Nina = southern slider/Beach blizzard. Save yourselves 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 That looked better! We need incremental improvements from now on to start believing. Of course, Dr NO has to at least say Maybe next! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 If the WFT still has hope and a chance to make the playoffs, I’m not giving up yet… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Pretty decent difference between CMC and GFS at 54 hrs on 5h. That is what I’ll be watching next couple model runs. Really would love euro to come onboard at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said: Shall I start the thread? 6 1 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 12z CMC looks like a hit looking at the maps on Pivotal. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Nina = southern slider/Beach blizzard. Save yourselves Yep...Especially in early January. Really strange how that seems to be a favored time period for this in ninas. Bomb cyclone happened then...lol And even the one anomalous 1996 hit was also in early January...just that that crazy...whatever it was made it work for us. But otherwise...you can almost bet on a nina beach snow in early January, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z CMC looks like a hit looking at the maps on Pivotal. Had the cmc started to dig earlier like gfs maps wouldn’t be that far off. I think we’re onto something here. Tepidly excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said: Safe to say that SOMEONE in VA is getting snow in the next 96 hours. Nah. Nothing is ever safe to say. We’ve lost better closer in and more certain. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Uh, never safe to say. Short Pump in the bullseye? I live there, it never works out that way. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 54 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Well it’s better..for some. It's better for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 52 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s either onto something or on something….see what I did there with the word play….I’m on fire today If you have to explain it....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 GFS onboard...Canadian onboard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Giggling a bit toggling the last two CMC runs. Just minor adjustments from our weather models ~3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Wonder if we can get a slight shift north, I've seen in the past the GFS has this SE bias, but it's also a warmer pattern. thread the needle. Love the GOA low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Based on snowfall maps alone, UKIE took a step in the right direction from 00z to 12z but keeps anything substantive closer to the Tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Important for the EURO to improve from last night's run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 fwiw, 10 days before Jan 25,2000 We are coming out of a similar pattern, with NAO Coming out of deep -NAOstorm.., Trend has been for NAO to become more negative in shorter term, -NAO has also however weighted by bad Pacific so.. I can see it trending west, but not as cold as 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Good discussion between Webb/Ant. Most of it goes over my head but for the interested: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Trend at 700 hPa from the GEM; 36 hours ago DC was caught in the middle between the southern and northern streams. Now it is (forecast to be) well within the southwest flow associated with the SS. Winds over MO have shifted from northwesterly to north-northwesterly emphasizing the strengthening of the vorticity max; allowing for southwesterly rather than westerly flow to its east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 WB 12Z GFS…. No luck so far…. But I wish all a heathy and happy 2022!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 The rain and snain Stays mainly on the plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS…. No luck so far…. But I wish all a heathy and happy 2022!!! Do you have the map to 15 or 18z? I believe its still snowing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 I said yesterday that I thought we might know after the 12z runs but thinking it’s the 0z that will seal the deal. I fully support taking @leesburg 04 advice however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: If a storm does exist like on the 12z GFS we could see a legit north trend that lets us get a decent amount of snow. Probably nothing major though. The main issue as others have said is that only the GFS and RGEM show a storm that even has the possibility to trend better for us. Once the Euro, Canadian or NAMs get on board then we can be excited. Yeah, even the NAM wants absolutely nothing to do with it. GFS and RGEM vs Euro, CMC, NAM. Hmmm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, even the NAM wants absolutely nothing to do with it. GFS and RGEM vs Euro, CMC, NAM. Hmmm. CMC looked good I thought 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 CMC looked good I thoughtLol it looked better than gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, even the NAM wants absolutely nothing to do with it. GFS and RGEM vs Euro, CMC, NAM. Hmmm. It is more so the GFS, RGEM (it technically is a weather model) and CMC Vs last night's Euro run along with the NAMs. If the Euro goes in line with the GFS then we might be able to get excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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