Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

blah

this (notice GFS ensembles are much different from OP)8a.thumb.gif.b7fce27a5830dc3378bce4b548da0856.gif

then this8aa.thumb.gif.00d32c0d43656b14adc1b1f56663953c.gif

I do think there is a tendency for LR models to overdo -PNA/bias+PNA-closer term after Jan 15. It may even be a neutral/+PDO Pacific (pattern) until sometime in February. Will be interesting to see if the NAO evens it, it's the wild card for Jan 15-31, +NAO signal Feb 7-9, so we might carry right through now to that.. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wouldn’t take a huge adjustment..but that might not be possible this late

I wouldn’t get excited if I was in the tidewater, either. GFS/RGEM being the only things that show substantial accumulation is iffy, IMO. Especially how heavy it shows it and with this being a rain/snow flaky situation. Not quite sure how models resolve when the changeover occurs.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BristowWx said:

Wouldn’t take a huge adjustment..but that might not be possible this late

 

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Still plenty of time for Synoptics and precip field to adjust nicely. Just based on the 72hr map should be a nice shield over a good portion of us. 

The problem is that the GFS seems to be the only one doing anything interesting with it.   I mean, yeah..RGEM..but....RGEM

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

 

The problem is that the GFS seems to be the only one doing anything interesting with it.   I mean, yeah..RGEM..but....RGEM

It’s either onto something or on something….see what I did there with the word play….I’m on fire today

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, stormtracker said:

 

The problem is that the GFS seems to be the only one doing anything interesting with it.   I mean, yeah..RGEM..but....RGEM

Lmao! I remember (and you can call me crazy) RGEM scoring a win or two at least down this way last year. So far for my scoring purposes 12z trends are our friends. 2/2 between the RGEM and GFS. Euro on board at 12z may be sniffing something coming together. Gotta play this one positive 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

What is the criteria for ranking the various models? I believe that the GFS has been advertising this particular storm for at least five days and the EURO started showing the storm yesterday. Yes, the GFS has been all over the place wrt impact on the Mid-Atlantic but it seems to be in lockstep with the EURO this morning, with the EURO catching up with the GFS. And is the EURO finished with its corrections? Still two or three model runs to go. (And the GFS has improved ever so slightly in the last 6 hours).

it just seems to lack consistency and is a day behind the euro (generalizing).  i mean, the gfs literally showed a major snowstorm in richmond yesterday, then backed off at 06z and now it looks like it's showing it again.  it just seems a little bouncier than the euro.  not saying it isn't a good model (i'm sure the stats will show it as #2), but if you had only 1 model to rely on which would you choose?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If a storm does exist like on the 12z GFS we could see a legit north trend that lets us get a decent amount of snow. Probably nothing major though. The main issue as others have said is that only the GFS and RGEM show a storm that even has the possibility to trend better for us. Once the Euro, Canadian or NAMs get on board then we can be excited.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...