Weather Will Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 NWS take on early next week, One of the recent runs of a major weather model (00z GFS) suggested a substantial amount of accumulating snow across much of the area Sunday night. This type of storm, however, doesn`t seem to fit with the overall weather pattern (fast-moving cold front plowing offshore with a subtropical ridge off the Southeast coast usually aren`t favorable for significant lower elevation snow in the Mid-Atlantic). Several other model simulations since have keyed in on what may be more likely: a brief period of wet snow on the backside of the strong cold front Sunday night. Widespread, prolonged/plowable snow seems very unlikely at the moment given (1) very mild temperatures are expected beforehand, and (2) dry air will chase the storm offshore before precipitation can fall as snow for too long. Given the anticipated warm temperatures beforehand, it will be difficult for snow to stick (if it falls at all). Regardless of any wintry precipitation, there is much higher confidence in gusty winds of 30- 35+ mph and wind chill temperatures dropping into the 20s and teens Sunday night into Monday morning (around 0 for the higher elevations where stronger, damaging wind gusts are possible). The colder weather looks to last about 36 to 48 hours before temperatures begin to moderate once again by the middle of next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoSailer Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 It seems we want the initial wave weaker and further south. Every run that has brought snow to the region has the initial low tracking just north of us vs. almost Buffalo. 18z Nam has that idea and at the end of the run it looks to be setting up for a potential hit. Hopefully this is the start of a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, SoCoSailer said: It seems we want the initial wave weaker and further south. Every run that has brought snow to the region has the initial low tracking just north of us vs. almost Buffalo. 18z Nam has that idea and at the end of the run it looks to be setting up for a potential hit. Hopefully this is the start of a trend there's some energy in the northern stream that seems to act as a kicker/suppressing the trailing wave on the models that have less impact here. not sure if that has to do with the southern energy being weaker or not, but it's noticeable on the nam as well (as in being similar to the gfs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 The ICON tried but came up just short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 GFS comes thru for happy hour. Not 0z good but better than last 2 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 18z GFS looking juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 That’s a pretty absurd panel, lol. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Tidewater area. Damn. We can pull another 100 miles norther. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS comes thru for happy hour. Not 0z good but better than last 2 runs. A bit North-er and stronger low than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 WB 1am Mon GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: That’s a pretty absurd panel, lol. Was about to post but yeah, that would be pretty crazy. Overall a nice improvement on the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 WB GFS 7am 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Was about to post but yeah, that would be pretty crazy. Overall a nice improvement on the last couple runs.Casual 12” in 6 hours down the mouth of the Potomac verbatim. Probably a red flag, honestly. Good luck to everyone, though! Cheering you on from Puerto Rico. Would make sense if it snowed while I was away, I’m a notorious jinx. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Northern Neck. The new snow capital of the forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 >Insert Ron Paul GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Tidewater area. Damn. We can pull another 100 miles norther. this is one of those storms that can legit trend north. Not the other 20 storms weve had that had no chance to go north 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I mean come on- gfs really going nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 It’s going to go norther, be tuckeder, have more warm noser, get ampeder, and be more rainer for MBY by the time it’s over 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 anyone have the late day Euro? When does that come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 anyone have the late day Euro? When does that come out?745 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 18z RGEM was a huge shift and has some snow when the run stops at hr84. FWIW (not much) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: anyone have the late day Euro? When does that come out? 745 thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 18z RGEM was a huge shift and has some snow when the run stops at hr84. FWIW (not much)We got 84 hours to make this into pa nj ny storm 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 745pretty sure it’s 6:45/6:50, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 32 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: I mean come on- gfs really going nuts Imagine if history repeated itself darn near 20 years to the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18z RGEM was a huge shift and has some snow when the run stops at hr84. FWIW (not much) We got 84 hours to make this into pa nj ny storm It’s probably happened before so can’t discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Someone should start a thread for the Cape Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 46 minutes ago, Ji said: this is one of those storms that can legit trend north. Not the other 20 storms weve had that had no chance to go north Yes where we want it to stop trending north. Seen that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: That’s a pretty absurd panel, lol. Hard to see the Eastern Shore in this pic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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