January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS is not a complete torch.  After the early next week cold front, there will be a warmup, and then another cool down verbatim.  Hug 26 for six hours….

[BristowWx]

Blame the recent aleet

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Let us know when the pacific gets consistently good

With the mjo inching closer to 8 in Jan and long range guidance showing the ridge shifting poleward and east it looks like the pac will be in a reasonably favorable phase. But the Atlantic looks to go to crap at the same time. EPS towards day 15 looks similar to 2015 actually. So let’s see.  If that actually works again I’m willing to admit that maybe what typically works has changed. But history says a good pac and bad Atlantic isn’t any better for snow than the inverse. 

[Cobalt]

One of the first cases of me understanding model bias was when I was told that the NAVGEM had an apparent "suppression" bias. This was back in 2017, but in every single instance where an image of the model has been posted, the storm is depicted more AMPED than other guidance. Is this me misremembering, or is this not a continuous occurrence? 

[cbmclean]

15 hours ago, Spartman said:

Interesting tweet from Dr. Simon Lee regarding about a potential Alaskan Ridge around the middle third of this upcoming January:

 

 

The GEFS just got mean today.  The "Alaskan Ridge" signal greatly diminished since yesterday.  A majority of the members banking on continued domination of the "Arctic Low" regime, which is the mess we are in right now.

https://simonleewx.com/gefs-35-day-north-american-regimes/

[nj2va]

12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

One of the first cases of me understanding model bias was when I was told that the NAVGEM had an apparent "suppression" bias. This was back in 2017, but in every single instance where an image of the model has been posted, the storm is depicted more AMPED than other guidance. Is this me misremembering, or is this not a continuous occurrence? 

 

I thought it has a progressive bias.

[paulythegun]

7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

One of the first cases of me understanding model bias was when I was told that the NAVGEM had an apparent "suppression" bias. This was back in 2017, but in every single instance where an image of the model has been posted, the storm is depicted more AMPED than other guidance. Is this me misremembering, or is this not a continuous occurrence? 

NAVGEM was upgraded (NAVGEM 2.0) in 2020. Model resolution improved from 31km to 19km. Not sure what the bias is, but it's a drastically different model. 

[CAPE]

I see the optimistic half cycle of the weather weenie bipolar waveform has ended, and we are approaching the negative peak, 'gloom and doom'. 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

With the mjo inching closer to 8 in Jan and long range guidance showing the ridge shifting poleward and east it looks like the pac will be in a reasonably favorable phase. But the Atlantic looks to go to crap at the same time. EPS towards day 15 looks similar to 2015 actually. So let’s see.  If that actually works again I’m willing to admit that maybe what typically works has changed. But history says a good pac and bad Atlantic isn’t any better for snow than the inverse. 

This is certainly a colder look than we have seen should it verify. I guess we will see if clippers still exist, and if so, whether or not they can still track far enough south. But yeah not much help in the AO/NAO domain as advertised. Chilly and dry would at least make it feel more like winter. We really need the MJO to keep progressing into the better phases or this decent Pac look likely won't persist. If the forcing craps out in 7 or just as it gets to 8 then re-fires near the MC, the Pac ridge will retro and strengthen again and we will be back where we were, and maybe with no Atlantic help. I remain optimistic though. Intuition!

[BristowWx]

8 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

Ok, I guess I don't like that look then.

18z looks like 6z…that means bad my friend.  

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is certainly a colder look than we have seen should it verify. I guess we will see if clippers still exist, and if so, whether or not they can still track far enough south. But yeah not much help in the AO/NAO domain as advertised. Chilly and dry would at least make it feel more like winter. We really need the MJO to keep progressing into the better phases or this decent Pac look likely won't persist. If the forcing craps out in 7 or just as it gets to 8 then re-fires near the MC, the Pac ridge will retro and strengthen again and we will be back where we were, and maybe with no Atlantic help. I remain optimistic though. Intuition!

Maybe preference here. The pacific certainly has more to say about our temps. And maybe if I bothered to do a correlation study on 1-4” snows it probably would show something. But I’m a big game Hunter. I was totally happy with 2016!  I’d rather one huge storm and nothing the rest of winter than a zillion 1-3” nuisance snows that add up to twice as much.  To get a big snowstorm we really do need Atlantic help. Just getting cold isn’t enough.  We need something to resist the return flow that’s inherently part of any big storm. That something is usually blocking. 
 

So yea if we just want colder weather and the chance at clippers or weak boundary waves the coming pattern looks good. If you want a 10”+ snowstorm it looks like dog crap. 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Maybe preference here. The pacific certainly has more to say about our temps. And maybe if I bothered to do a correlation study on 1-4” snows it probably would show something. But I’m a big game Hunter. I was totally happy with 2016!  I’d rather one huge storm and nothing the rest of winter than a zillion 1-3” nuisance snows that add up to twice as much.  To get a big snowstorm we really do need Atlantic help. Just getting cold isn’t enough.  We need something to resist the return flow that’s inherently part of any big storm. That something is usually blocking. 
 

So yea if we just want colder weather and the chance at clippers or weak boundary waves the coming pattern looks good. If you want a 10”+ snowstorm it looks like dog crap. 

Don't get me wrong, the historical data is clear about the importance of a -AO (and NAO) for cold and above avg snow in and around the DC area. I am happy with snowfall of any magnitude, but clearly bigger storms- which is almost always how we get above average snowfall- are favored when we have HL blocking. Now maybe that data isn't as reliable now and esp going forward due to a warming climate, but that is conjecture at this point.

[BristowWx]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe preference here. The pacific certainly has more to say about our temps. And maybe if I bothered to do a correlation study on 1-4” snows it probably would show something. But I’m a big game Hunter. I was totally happy with 2016!  I’d rather one huge storm and nothing the rest of winter than a zillion 1-3” nuisance snows that add up to twice as much.  To get a big snowstorm we really do need Atlantic help. Just getting cold isn’t enough.  We need something to resist the return flow that’s inherently part of any big storm. That something is usually blocking. 
 

So yea if we just want colder weather and the chance at clippers or weak boundary waves the coming pattern looks good. If you want a 10”+ snowstorm it looks like dog crap. 

I’d be ok with a few 1-3” “nuisance” snows.  Even a couple…hell one

[Ji]

Winter is over...just don't see it. Not even trackable threat yet and the lr looks bleak. We only have so much time

[snowfan]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Winter is over...just don't see it. Not even trackable threat yet and the lr looks bleak. We only have so much time

Not over, but half of January is already looking like toast. 

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Winter is over...just don't see it. Not even trackable threat yet and the lr looks bleak. We only have so much time

@WxWatcher007 Need to come out of retirement for a special event.

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Winter is over...just don't see it. Not even trackable threat yet and the lr looks bleak. We only have so much time

The LR takes us into what..mid January?  To write off basically two months of winter after that on Dec 28 is insane. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Winter is over...just don't see it. Not even trackable threat yet and the lr looks bleak. We only have so much time

We joke but if this is true it never even started.  November was more winter than December will be.  

[stormy]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Winter is over...just don't see it. Not even trackable threat yet and the lr looks bleak. We only have so much time

The seasoned meteorologists say that when predicting rain or snow. When in Drought, leave it out.

This dry pattern for rain or snow will break at some point.

Until then, speculation about rain or snow is a moot point. .50" of rain is not a break in the pattern unless it is followed by much more.

Is anyone smart enough to say when it will break? 

[aldie 22]

I looked up intuition in the dictionary it says dumbass who is usually wrong

[Stormfly]

11 minutes ago, stormy said:

The seasoned meteorologists say that when predicting rain or snow. When in Drought, leave it out.

This dry pattern for rain or snow will break at some point.

Until then, speculation about rain or snow is a moot point. .50" of rain is not a break in the pattern unless it is followed by much more.

Is anyone smart enough to say when it will break? 

April?

[psuhoffman]

57 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Don't get me wrong, the historical data is clear about the importance of a -AO (and NAO) for cold and above avg snow in and around the DC area. I am happy with snowfall of any magnitude, but clearly bigger storms- which is almost always how we get above average snowfall- are favored when we have HL blocking. Now maybe that data isn't as reliable now and esp going forward due to a warming climate, but that is conjecture at this point.

As the background state warms its easy to speculate that we will struggle to over come imperfections more. So setups with one or two things not right that we could have worked with 50 years ago might not now. 
 

Applying that logic to the recent struggles with a bad pac but good Atlantic, the inverse isn’t necessarily true. Just because a favorable HL can no longer overcome a warmed pacific doesn’t mean a favorable pac with a bad HL regime will be better for our chances. I fear people are so fed up with what we’ve been struggling with lately they forget how frustrating it can be when the AO is raging positive even with a decent PAC. I don’t think anyone was consoled in 1995 or 1997 that the pac wasn’t that bad. I doubt we would hear a lot of “well it’s warm and snowless but at least the pac pattern is ok”.  The truth might be we need BOTH a favorable pac and Atlantic now to overcome the warmer base state. 

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

April?

Yep, start of the wet season.  

[Ji]

The LR takes us into what..mid January?  To write off basically two months of winter after that on Dec 28 is insane. 

Mid jan to Mid feb is really our last good window. Anything after that is a crap shoot and not that fun unless its a blizzard

[stormy]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

44 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The LR takes us into what..mid January?  To write off basically two months of winter after that on Dec 28 is insane. 

Mid jan to Mid feb is really our last good window. Anything after that is a crap shoot and not that fun unless its a blizzard

This is not intuition, but I would guess that mid January  to mid March is a good bet to break the pattern.  Mother Nature always balances.

[RIC_WX]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Winter is over...just don't see it. Not even trackable threat yet and the lr looks bleak. We only have so much time

I would bet January has at least one stretch that relative to average, is an order of magnitude bad beyond anything we have seen so far.  January 1950 / 2002 style.  Some years are just this way, and a lot of signs this is one of them.  This sure seems like a less bold prediction that winter somehow snaps back with a vengeance in the second half.

The rotten pattern is remarkably stable. Only positive I see is it locked in early and with a little luck it relents somewhat that we could manage a decent finish in February / March.  Somewhat difficult to imagine current pattern sustaining itself that long, but equally difficult to see it breaking down anytime soon.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

@WxWatcher007 Need to come out of retirement for a special event.

We’re good over here, but thanks for the call. The super PNA has actually been good for outdoor activities. 
 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

The LR takes us into what..mid January?  To write off basically two months of winter after that on Dec 28 is insane. 

Not directed at you, but to base anything on model runs beyond 5 days is risky business

[WinterWxLuvr]

The 18z shows how I think we will score first. Cold being established by one storm and then a cutter into the cold airmass, then probably a coastal storm after. What they produce is another matter

[Weather Will]

18Z WB GEFS, best snow maps of the winter so far, perhaps lighten the mood for at least 6 hours…