WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: Is this the kind of look we're looking for at 500 Only if you like cold, dry and wind after all of the precip is gone 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 6 hours ago, Spartman said: Interesting tweet from Dr. Simon Lee regarding about a potential Alaskan Ridge around the middle third of this upcoming January: Ensemble guidance in general suggesting a significantly -WPO, slightly -EPO, and slightly negative/neutral PNA in the LR. AO/NAO look generally neutral. Also seeing a possible southward displacement of TPV over Hudson Bay. That type of pattern should provide more cold air chances for the central and eastern US. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Only if you like cold, dry and wind after all of the precip is gone Ok, I guess I don't like that look then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 hours ago, Wonderdog said: Ok, I guess I don't like that look then. GFS a little better than 6z. so there's that...I wouldn't get excited or write it off..but that h5 look is more of what you want to see...still not there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: GFS a little better than 6z. so there's that...I wouldn't get excited or write it off..but that h5 look is more of what you want to see...still not there yet looks like a race between precip and arctic intrusion. probably want a slower trailing system, which appears to be the case compared to 6z. i could see how this could work out to a quick hitting snowstorm for at least parts of the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, 87storms said: looks like a race between precip and arctic intrusion. probably want a slower trailing system, which appears to be the case compared to 6z. i could see how this could work out to a quick hitting snowstorm for at least parts of the mid-atlantic. maybe get that h5 look more negative earlier and further SW and who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, BristowWx said: GFS a little better than 6z. so there's that...I wouldn't get excited or write it off..but that h5 look is more of what you want to see...still not there yet Still a little too positively tilted for our liking right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Might take a while to resolve this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, IronTy said: Still a little too positively tilted for our liking right? indeed at least thats how it looks to me. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 The southern energy hasn't come ashore yet. Not properly sampled. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 this is more like it- the green stripe runs right through my house 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 The beginning of the end. We have a 70% probability for -PNA next January and February, but 23-24 is going to be -QBO again so if we have El Nino..! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: indeed at least thats how it looks to me. True but it looks like the system has slowed a bit and the ridging out west looks less flat. Maybe a good thing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 The signal is there on the GEFS, but suggestive of a progressive/weakish trailing wave, and a decent chance the precip exits before much cold can get involved. That said, there are 9 or 10 members that imply a coating to as much as a few inches for at least part of this region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 11 hours ago, Ji said: 12 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Not liking this 384hr GFS Looks like composite of top 20 years where PNA dominated Dec 1 - Jan 3 rolled forward I have a slight +PNA signal ~Jan 15th>, but February might turn out warmer, especially if that verifies We just want one event Hmmm. You say this now, but you won’t be saying that after we get 1 event! Lol. I seem to remember you weren’t even happy with the winter of 2016! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: True but it looks like the system has slowed a bit and the ridging out west looks less flat. Maybe a good thing ? not sure. I really don't know whats a good thing anymore. Everything I thought should be good turns out not so good...its befuddling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: not sure. I really don't know whats a good thing anymore. Everything I thought should be good turns out not so good...its befuddling Getting snow with the colder air just coming in is a tough one. Really need a pretty healthy wave but not too amped and ofc timing. Always timing. A realistic 'good' outcome here is probably a few hours of snow on the tail end with a coating to a couple inches. That's probably just my intuitive thoughts on the situation though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: not sure. I really don't know whats a good thing anymore. Everything I thought should be good turns out not so good...its befuddling You need to start drinking heavily! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Who gave the GFS crack last night and why are you continuing to do so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Who gave the GFS crack last night and why are you continuing to do so? Exactly. The gfs will have a good handle on this by Sun night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Ugly look on the GFS and Euro in extended 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 H/t @Sey-Mour Snow from the SNE thread for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 I fear we’re about to be reminded that a good pacific and awful Atlantic doesn’t usually work for us either. Hope I’m wrong. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 27 minutes ago, yoda said: Ugly look on the GFS and Euro in extended So far the last few weeks when looking at the LR, it’s like 1 step forward, 10 steps back. Guess we’ll see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 29 minutes ago, yoda said: H/t @Sey-Mour Snow from the SNE thread for this Let’s just pretend they’re snow totals instead. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 36 minutes ago, yoda said: Ugly look on the GFS and Euro in extended Yea this is pretty bad. I'm trying to be optimistic, but this might be a game over scenario. We're entering peak climo for temps and we're still +10 to +20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I fear we’re about to be reminded that a good pacific and awful Atlantic doesn’t usually work for us either. Hope I’m wrong. On the bright side the models had been calling for the exact opposite a month ago. (Crappy Pac and great Atl) Who the hell knows anymore? This hobby can be so tiring. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: On the bright side the models had been calling for the exact opposite a month ago. (Crappy Pac and great Atl) Who the hell knows anymore? This hobby can be so tiring. Yep…no one here knows what is going to happen and no one should be writing off winter on December 28. All I know is I’d rather take my chances with a good Pacific regardless of what the data suggests supports DC storms (e.g. -AO) - lets roll the dice with something different IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I fear we’re about to be reminded that a good pacific and awful Atlantic doesn’t usually work for us either. Hope I’m wrong. Let us know when the pacific gets consistently good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 53 minutes ago, yoda said: Ugly look on the GFS and Euro in extended They are both uncanny at long range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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