January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nice gefs run 

It's really nice actually. Probably the best look in a couple of years. Couple of observations from my igloo:

1.) So far, we aren't kicking this pattern down the road. The Dec 31 - Jan 2 pattern change timeframe seems reasonably agreed upon.

2.) The -NAO doesn't seems to just wash away. It looks kind of stable.

3.) The past couple of days have started to show better signs of a -EPO forming to help secure more cold air.

[H2O]

When this stuff gets into under day 5 then it will be something to note.  Until then....well, you know.

[IronTy]

50 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

I had a hosta sprout a leaf in my backyard! lolz

That hosta is gonna regret it in about 10 days*

 

*Take it to the bank

[mattie g]

18 minutes ago, H2O said:

When this stuff gets into under day 5 then it will be something to note.  Until then....well, you know.

I'm happy to look at it remaining stable in time on the ensembles. We're just looking at long-wave patterns and general trends, but I'm absolutely with you that long-range deterministic modeling is just for show.

Nothing to look at until things shuffle a bit, so might as well focus on the beginning of January when things will hopefully look a little more promising as we get closer in time.

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

That hosta is gonna regret it in about 10 days*

 

*Take it to the bank

Hostas don't give a sh*t. Them and roaches will still be here after the apocalypse.

[psuhoffman]

VERY nice geps run 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

VERY nice geps run 

Side bar on these ens....the SPV takes a pummeling the next 14 days. Looks to split at least once as waves of warming bully it around. There is usually a correlation with HL blocking and the strat, so there's that on our side wrt the NAO/AO/EPO hopefully.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Keep it up guys! Enjoying reading your thoughts.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Side bar on these ens....the SPV takes a pummeling the next 14 days. Looks to split at least once as waves of warming bully it around. There is usually a correlation with HL blocking and the strat, so there's that on our side wrt the NAO/AO/EPO hopefully.

It’s not as necessary as it’s seemed lately. I have a theory. We were in such a dominant +AO phase that it took stratospheric disruption to alter. When we are in a less hostile long term phase l, like I suspect we are now, we can get a favorable high latitude pattern without as much air from a SSW. 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not as necessary as it’s seemed lately. I have a theory. We were in such a dominant +AO phase that it took stratospheric disruption to alter. When we are in a less hostile long term phase l, like I suspect we are now, we can get a favorable high latitude pattern without as much air from a SSW. 

At the very least it’s nice to be heading into prime climo with some positive trends on the ensembles. If we can get 2-3 weeks of what is being advertised in January, there should be multiple opportunities to score. We can worry about the GLL’s, threading the needle, sun angle, etc when the time comes

[nj2va]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

VERY nice geps run 

Yep, was just looking at that too.  You can see the progression the last week of December where the -EPO shifts east to push the W trough east (and the -EPO reloads)...and we have a broad CONUS trough with a -AO/-NAO. 

+ precip anomalies in the TN valley/mid-atlantic with BN temps...can't ask for much better than that at this point.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, Paleocene said:

I had a hosta sprout a leaf in my backyard! lolz

 

35 minutes ago, IronTy said:

That hosta is gonna regret it in about 10 days*

 

*Take it to the bank

Well, if it dies you can just say "hosta" la vista, baby!

(exiting stage right, avoiding the tomatoes thrown by the crowd!)

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

 

Well, if it dies you can just say "hosta" la vista, baby!

(exiting stage right, avoiding the tomatoes thrown by the crowd!)

I actually hate hostas, they're non native and have little environmental value outside of slugs, and deer love them.  So I'm all for the hostapacolypse.

[mattie g]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

VERY nice geps run 

There's just an amazing agreement in general between both the GEPS and GEFS going out through the end of the run. The main difference I can see is that the GEPS noses the EPO ridge up into the AO domain, but it's pretty far out there. Stunning to me to see how in line they are.

[SnowenOutThere]

So, when the pattern changes around new year what sort of storms could we see? Would it be primarily storms that cut to our north like what the GFS has for the majority of it's run? Or costals/clippers? Or do we simply not know at all and which would be best for us? Either way with a cold block in place any storm should have a decent chance of scoring right? I mean if it is a clipper pattern than we score with cold smoke snow, if it is cutters than we get a front end thump. If we get costals then we should be fine as well. Just happy that from people who understand it that the pattern looks good and is not being kicked down the road and is at near peak climo. Of course we could still fail.

[psuhoffman]

Looks like cpc let Chuck have the crayons. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So, when the pattern changes around new year what sort of storms could we see? Would it be primarily storms that cut to our north like what the GFS has for the majority of it's run? Or costals/clippers? Or do we simply not know at all and which would be best for us? Either way with a cold block in place any storm should have a decent chance of scoring right? I mean if it is a clipper pattern than we score with cold smoke snow, if it is cutters than we get a front end thump. If we get costals then we should be fine as well. Just happy that from people who understand it that the pattern looks good and is not being kicked down the road and is at near peak climo. Of course we could still fail.

In response to this part...I definitely would not say any storm--especially not in a nina, lol Coastals tend to be Miller B's in this ENSO state, unfortunately. Better to expect what we saw back in February--and perhaps we can get some front end.

Now yeah a clipper pattern can work in a nina (I think). But there are other elements that occur in the short term that we just can't nail down  this far out. Fwiw, my developing philosophy (at least for this winter) is just to always have the current enso state and it's tendencies in mind.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks like cpc let Chuck have the crayons. 

Yeesh!  Dafuq is going on in there?  I can't even follow any of the lines.  What, is it bouncing back and forth in Phase 7-8?  (Maybe not a bad thing?)

[Chris78]

28 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeesh!  Dafuq is going on in there?  I can't even follow any of the lines.  What, is it bouncing back and forth in Phase 7-8?  (Maybe not a bad thing?)

I believe that would be a good thing 

[mattie g]

49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks like cpc let Chuck have the crayons. 

I looked at that earlier and was going to mention it, but you put it way more eloquently than I could have.

[mattie g]

32 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeesh!  Dafuq is going on in there?  I can't even follow any of the lines.  What, is it bouncing back and forth in Phase 7-8?  (Maybe not a bad thing?)

I mean...it wouldn't be a bad thing, but something is obviously wonky. Seems odd that there would be a huge jump in where convection blows up from one day to the next.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I mean...it wouldn't be a bad thing, but something is obviously wonky. Seems odd that there would be a huge jump in where convection blows up from one day to the next.

Its effed up. I looked this morning and it just had the gray and no lines plotted. The latest Euro forecast seems to get stuck in phase 7 for a while.

[CAPE]

Latest CFS forecast looks okay.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Its effed up. I looked this morning and it just had the gray and no lines plotted. The latest Euro forecast seems to get stuck in phase 7 for a while.

I am getting a little nervous of what happens if the mjo stalls in 7 and never progresses. Frankly the dominant convection has stalled almost in 6. The really good roll forward analog projections are based on the fact that a high amplitude phase 6/7 almost always makes it to 8. But there are always exceptions. The mjo dying in phase 6/7 would possibly muck up my expected pattern progression. I’m not favoring that att but doesn’t mean I’m not aware of it. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am getting a little nervous of what happens if the mjo stalls in 7 and never progresses. Frankly the dominant convection has stalled almost in 6. The really good roll forward analog projections are based on the fact that a high amplitude phase 6/7 almost always makes it to 8. But there are always exceptions. The mjo dying in phase 6/7 would possibly muck up my expected pattern progression. I’m not favoring that att but doesn’t mean I’m not aware of it. 

Yeah something to monitor. The Canadian ens and Euro ext have it approaching/barely making it to phase 8 then into the COD. In the case of the Euro X it takes a while to get there- around mid month- which makes sense given the Euro gets stuck in phase 7.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah something to monitor. The Canadian ens and Euro ext have it approaching/barely making it to phase 8 then into the COD. In the case of the Euro X it takes a while to get there- around mid month- which makes sense given the Euro gets stuck in phase 7.

There are a lot of variables. generic phase 7 is warm in January. However 8 is cold. And cold enso 7 is cold. So Imo where in 7 matters a lot and so does what the soi is doing. If the Nina influence wanes we would need a further progression of the mjo to see the same impact. I suspect somewhere between 175-180 there is the flip where we can get the epo ridge nudged far enough east to kick the trough out of the west.  The guidance is teasing us with the wave stalling right around that magic spot. 

[CAPE]

Latest edition of the weeklies looking good into mid Jan.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There are a lot of variables. generic phase 7 is warm in January. However 8 is cold. And cold enso 7 is cold. So Imo where in 7 matters a lot and so does what the soi is doing. If the Nina influence wanes we would need a further profession if the mjo to see the same impact. I suspect somewhere between 175-180 there is the flip where we can get the epo ridge nudged far enough east to kick the trough out of the west.  The guidance is teasing us with the wave stalling right around that magic spot. 

Good way to describe it. And why would we expect that not to be the case lol. Never easy, esp in a Nina.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeesh!  Dafuq is going on in there?  I can't even follow any of the lines.  What, is it bouncing back and forth in Phase 7-8?  (Maybe not a bad thing?)

WxTwitter was talking about that today. Seems like a data processing error.

[psuhoffman]

First I wanted to say even though I lamented the loss of some of our old regulars there has been some really good analysis on here lately. 
 

Second, I don’t mind scientific analysis that suggests results we don’t want. I don’t shy away from saying when it’s bad. But what is kinda annoying is the straight deb stuff with absolutely no legit analysis to support it. The “it’s gonna suck because it just sucks here most of the time” type stuff. Yea it’s probably going to suck at any given time. It sucks ~80% of the time. That’s our climo. Anyone can do that!  
 

What most of us are here for is looking for signs of and waiting for those rare instances when it doesnt suck. Having to Wade through dozens of posts of “it just sucks” absent any reasoning to support it sucks even more imo.  If you have legitimate observation based evidence that shows why it will suck by all means I don’t mind hearing and discussing it. But if you’re just venting because there isn’t any blue over you on the latest model run…that doesn’t add anything of value. 
 

just my 2 cents.