CAPE Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, frd said: Don't see that too often. I like our chances for the "CAPE" storm. Ha they always fail, but half the fun of this silly hobby is just having something to track. A chance. After a prolonged period of 'nice' weather with really no shot, this probably is the first legit chance for a light, maybe moderate frozen event for at least part of this subforum outside the highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Ha they always fail, but half the fun of this silly hobby is just having something to track. A chance. After a prolonged period of 'nice' weather with really no shot, this probably is the first legit chance for a light, maybe moderate frozen event for at least part of this subforum outside the highlands. After a warmish weekend a rather drastic turn to colder Monday and then we monitor our chances. Some snow would be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 From the site Stratobserve, it appears that a stretched PV might occur during the timeframe from early to mid Jan. Sometimes this can lead to cold air outbreaks and winter storms. Also, the NAM state may be negative during this period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 ALEET !!!!! 1 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 ^^^ this usually ends well 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ^^^ this usually ends well Still waiting for his "1996" pattern from this time one year ago to come to fruition. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 18z GEFS doesn’t seem supportive of the OP for the 3rd, at least looking at 500 anomalies and vort maps on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z GEFS doesn’t seem supportive of the OP for the 3rd, at least looking at 500 anomalies and vort maps on TT. Looking at the 24 hr precip panels you can see the second wave of precip come up into the area. Not sure how pronounced the vort would be on the mean from a week out. Don't know if it's snow but there's definitely 2 shots of precip. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 45 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z GEFS doesn’t seem supportive of the OP for the 3rd, at least looking at 500 anomalies and vort maps on TT. The op runs at 500 have quite the spread over the past five runs for the 3rd. Very little, if any consistency. We need a couple of more days to start to get some clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 28 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: The op runs at 500 have quite the spread over the past five runs for the 3rd. Very little, if any consistency. We need a couple of more days to start to get some clarity. Its probably a pretty decent sign that both the Euro and GFS have a nice 500 pass to our south in that timeframe though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 4 hours ago, nj2va said: I miss seeing bowling ball tracks like these and confluence north of us….results in blue pixels over us! It's leaving the energy further back every run. It will probably get shredded like the CMC/NAVGEM are showing if it gets left much further back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 21 minutes ago, Amped said: It's leaving the energy further back every run. It will probably get shredded like the CMC/NAVGEM are showing if it gets left much further back. Where there’s a will, there’s a way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Where there’s a will, there’s a way And intuition 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Latest ICON run for the CAPE storm looks interesting. Of course more snow in the NE versus here, but respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 21 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: And intuition Man, you just nailed this earlier today. The intuition cabal has been fully deployed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 That (gfs) would be fun 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Not liking this 384hr GFS Looks like composite of top 20 years where PNA dominated Dec 1 - Jan 3 rolled forward I have a slight +PNA signal ~Jan 15th>, but February might turn out warmer, especially if that verifies 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Not liking this 384hr GFS Looks like my composite of top 20 years where PNA dominated Dec 1 - Jan 3 rolled forward I have a slight +PNA signal starting around Jan 15th, but February is starting to look like it might turn out warmer, especially if that verifies Oh crap. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Oh crap. N. Atlantic SST NAO index which has been 11-1-4 since inception, was -0.25 for DJFM, +0.54SD50%, so NAO might not get that positive. We are also, though, flipping last year--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That (gfs) would be fun More fun than pattern tracking, thats for sure… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: More fun than pattern tracking, thats for sure… Damn right. We abscond. Just need a tweak north or someone might get….FRINGED! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: More fun than pattern tracking, thats for sure… We deserve it…..been a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Sneaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Not liking this 384hr GFS Looks like composite of top 20 years where PNA dominated Dec 1 - Jan 3 rolled forward I have a slight +PNA signal ~Jan 15th>, but February might turn out warmer, especially if that verifiesWe just want one event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: We just want one event No, I want back-to-back snowstorms for eight weeks straight. A proper winter. Yes, I'm greedy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Interesting tweet from Dr. Simon Lee regarding about a potential Alaskan Ridge around the middle third of this upcoming January: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That (gfs) would be fun This gfs would be less fun 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 6z GFS is more amplified with the NS energy getting involved/phasing, but the depiction at the surface is a little odd based on the upper level look. Upshot is it's a NE snowstorm this run. 0z Euro/EPS has a much weaker wave tracking along the boundary and the cold air is late to the game. CMC leaning this way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Is this the kind of look we're looking for at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Is this the kind of look we're looking for at 500 Not really…positive tilted and east. Needs to be neutral over KY from this untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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