January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

That vortex near the Sea of Okhotsk isn't weakening as much/as fast on recent GEFS runs. That would continue to enhance the strength/stability of the Aleutian ridge and delay the western US trough movement eastward.

[osfan24]

That early January period is one I would heavily bet against. When the pattern flips, we rarely, if ever, have success right when it flips.

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE the problems with the pacific base state have been beaten to death. But my point, and Ji I think, was that occasionally when the pac is not THAT bad and the pattern should be “ok” the SE ridge is still going nuts. This panel is a good example. 

No the pac isn’t “good” there but it it’s not a train wreck either.  Honestly that’s likely as good as we can hope for in the current base state.  The pacific ridge is poleward and just far enough east that combined with a favorable AO/NAO that should suppress the SE ridge some. Yea there should be some SE ridge response to the wavelengths out west but it’s still flexing to Canada!   It shouldn’t take a perfect wavelength alignment to stop the SE ridge from pumping to the arctic circle. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

So … it’s not gonna snow now?

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So … it’s not gonna snow now?

 Sorry I don't do snow maps. 

[WinterFire]

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE the problems with the pacific base state have been beaten to death. But my point, and Ji I think, was that occasionally when the pac is not THAT bad and the pattern should be “ok” the SE ridge is still going nuts. This panel is a good example. 

No the pac isn’t “good” there but it it’s not a train wreck either.  Honestly that’s likely as good as we can hope for in the current base state.  The pacific ridge is poleward and just far enough east that combined with a favorable AO/NAO that should suppress the SE ridge some. Yea there should be some SE ridge response to the wavelengths out west but it’s still flexing to Canada!   It shouldn’t take a perfect wavelength alignment to stop the SE ridge from pumping to the arctic circle. 

I'd be curious to hear what you (and others) think is causing the ridiculously resilient SE ridge this winter. Is it just that the western trough continues to dig more than initially thought, while maintaining a less-than-ideal mean axis?? Is there something upstream that's helping to force the ridge? SSTs are pretty warm in the Gulf/off the SE coast but it doesn't seem to be exceptionally warm, so I imagine that's a contributor but not necessarily what causes it. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 Sorry I don't do snow maps. 

 

Hmm...over your house, sweet  ! 

 

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Hmm...over your house, sweet  ! 

 

 

 

 

 

Next panel is better. Lewes/Rehoboth bullseye. It will probably happen as I will be heading in the other direction.

[Prestige Worldwide]

[frd]

 

Not perfect , but certainly an improvement overall. The EPS looks to lessen the extreme - PNA while still providing a favorable look up top.  

 

 

[CAPE]

+PNA 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

It’s gonna come north 

[cbmclean]

Just now, CAPE said:

+PNA 

But +AO/+NAO.  Can't win, even in fantasy land.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

But +AO/+NAO.  Can't win, even in fantasy land.

Eh, a shake up in the pattern might be good. We are damn good at failure regardless. Let the Pacific drive and hope it's not cutters followed by cold/dry. Maybe we do a mini version of 2014.

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE the problems with the pacific base state have been beaten to death. But my point, and Ji I think, was that occasionally when the pac is not THAT bad and the pattern should be “ok” the SE ridge is still going nuts. This panel is a good example. 

No the pac isn’t “good” there but it it’s not a train wreck either.  Honestly that’s likely as good as we can hope for in the current base state.  The pacific ridge is poleward and just far enough east that combined with a favorable AO/NAO that should suppress the SE ridge some. Yea there should be some SE ridge response to the wavelengths out west but it’s still flexing to Canada!   It shouldn’t take a perfect wavelength alignment to stop the SE ridge from pumping to the arctic circle. 

Maybe that's where we are now?  Everything has to be exactly perfect, or no shot.  That's not just being a random downer.  Its a possibility that should be kept in mind.

[StormchaserChuck!]

-EPO can be +8 in the upper levels, and below freezing at the surface. It's a below average temp pattern. -EPO with -NAO, which it should be, gives us snow, but the clouds are thin and it melts quickly.

Both 2010 and 1950 had big -EPO's for a few days while transitioning away from -PNA. 

see how warm it is

 

 

The 2 biggest -PNA's on record, in transition, both produced big -EPO's, 2/2

 

[cbmclean]

Latest MJO update from CPC is out and it fits in disturbingly well PSU's concern.

See slide 2 last bullet

• While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS, extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North America.

 

[BristowWx]

27 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Maybe that's where we are now?  Everything has to be exactly perfect, or no shot.  That's not just being a random downer.  Its a possibility that should be kept in mind.

Seems that way.  With the demise of clippers which were good for some 1-2 type deals you have to wonder if it’s bad luck or the future of MA winter

[aldie 22]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So … it’s not gonna snow now?

These dudes don't know lol

[snowfan]

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

These dudes don't know lol

Most accurate post in this thread.

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So … it’s not gonna snow now?

Only the Sith deal in absolutes.

With the exception of @H2O.  We can all be certain that he will never see snow again.

[nj2va]

I miss seeing bowling ball tracks like these and confluence north of us….results in blue pixels over us!

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So … it’s not gonna snow now?

I doubt that but it’s harder than it should be lately. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I miss seeing bowling ball tracks like these and confluence north of us….results in blue pixels over us!

Did you say … you miss seeing blue balls? Did I read that wrong?

[CAPE]

CAPE storm is still alive.  

[Cobalt]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I miss seeing bowling ball tracks like these and confluence north of us….results in blue pixels over us!

I like seeing that initial D5 system trending towards scooting out of here faster, it allows confluence to build ahead of that intriguing system.. 

[CAPE]

As depicted this run, pretty textbook for a moderate snow event. Notice how the Highs and Lows are in all the right places.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

As depicted this run, pretty textbook for a moderate snow event. Notice how the Highs and Lows are in all the right places.

Don't see that too often.  I like our chances for the "CAPE" storm. 

[H2O]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Only the Sith deal in absolutes.

With the exception of @H2O.  We can all be certain that he will never see snow again.

We hold these truths to be self evident. We are all created equal and that everyone has the right to life, liberty and happiness from getting snow except me