Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Not on 18z run. Nothing to be had in the Gulf or the 500mb Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk The idea is still there...other details will jump around at long leads. Day 9 is no time to start living and dying by runs, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Washington was OBVIOUSLY somewhere in the @Ji family tree. I dunno - If I'm remembering correctly he described it as "dreadful" - but again might be remembering wrong. The day @Ji describes a 36" blizzard as "dreadful" we know we are all in trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 We all know the timing is just as wrong this run as it was last run. The difference between the GFS accuracy at 222hrs and 216hrs is negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 It handles the NS remarkably similar just has no stj wave there to phase with this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It handles the NS remarkably similar just has no stj wave there to phase with this run. Then here's to this having this weekend's trend of holding back the stj wave to repeat itself next weekend, lol (but just enough, of course!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Even though there was no event this run it was closer than people realize. It didn't dig the shortwave as far into the southwest this run so the spacing was off. Looooooooong way to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Even though there was no event this run it was closer than people realize. It didn't dig the shortwave as far into the southwest this run so the spacing was off. Looooooooong way to go Yeah it was...I mean you can even see it phase and turn north off shore. Same kind of direction --could that indicate some kind of a trough in the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It handles the NS remarkably similar just has no stj wave there to phase with this run. Yeah the 12z run had that stj energy farther southwest initially which allowed the northern stream to phase. Wouldn't have taken much change this run, still like the time period for potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 28 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: It’s supposedly the largest documented storm to hit DC and Virginia. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson claimed in their diaries that snow reached a depth of 3 feet region wide. Hard to verify this though. I read about that somewhere and remember a quote like "...36 inches deep on a level." To have a snow depth of 36" the snowfall amounts by today's measuring must have been in the 45" range! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: I read about that somewhere and remember a quote like "...36 inches deep on a level." To have a snow depth of 36" the snowfall amounts by today's measuring must have been in the 45" range! Parts of the western suburbs got close to that total in both 2010 and 2016, so it's really not that far-fetched. Maybe for the coastal plain, but west of the fall line that is not an outrageous total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, mattskiva said: Parts of the western suburbs got close to that total in both 2010 and 2016, so it's really not that far-fetched. Maybe for the coastal plain, but west of the fall line that is not an outrageous total. True - but keep in mind I believe these obs were taken pretty close-in - like at Mount Vernon perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: True - but keep in mind I believe these obs were taken pretty close-in - like at Mount Vernon perhaps. Yeah, that's a little more surprising. Dulles got 32" in 2010 and 29" in 2016, both of which are close to three feet. But I think the numbers were quite a bit lower at National. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 56 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: It’s supposedly the largest documented storm to hit DC and Virginia. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson claimed in their diaries that snow reached a depth of 3 feet region wide. Hard to verify this though. DCA still would have measured 8. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 30 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yeah the 12z run had that stj energy farther southwest initially which allowed the northern stream to phase. Wouldn't have taken much change this run, still like the time period for potential. Yeah, was seeing that as well just didn’t realize the difference it would make downstream. Now we see. Ha. Need more energy helD back there. Need to keep an eye on that feature as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Keep the faith. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 59 minutes ago, mattskiva said: Yeah, that's a little more surprising. Dulles got 32" in 2010 and 29" in 2016, both of which are close to three feet. But I think the numbers were quite a bit lower at National. DCA recorded 17.8 in the 2010 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 There are timing issues between members so hard to catch in one frame but the majority of the gefs members like an amplified storm in that day 8-10 period. Actually they think a cutter is the bigger threat than OTS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 This is 24 hr precip. This is as big a signal as you will ever see at that range due to timing differences and outlier members that far out. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 ^precip pattern looks Miller B-ish? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Jersey Andrew said: It’s supposedly the largest documented storm to hit DC and Virginia. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson claimed in their diaries that snow reached a depth of 3 feet region wide. Hard to verify this though. They measured snow in perches back then, not feet. Must be a forgery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is 24 hr precip. This is as big a signal as you will ever see at that range due to timing differences and outlier members that far out. So, something interesting of note on the 18z euro. Yea it only goes out to 90 hours and this probably means very little at this range, but there's a significant change that could impact things down the line. If you follow the 12z gfs through its run the stj energy that ends up phasing with the northern stream enters the CONUS around 90 hours out. The 12z gfs dug this energy pretty far SW which then gave more room for the northern stream to catch up to it. 18z gfs didn't dig it as far and it sped up the wave, thus the missed phase etc etc... Well, check out the differences on the 18z euro in Southwest Canada. The new 18z euro has a much better trajectory to send a wave into the southwest...im extremely bored and desperate, but here goes... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: ^precip pattern looks Miller B-ish? Earlier panels have precip in the gulf coast. It’s a hybrid signal. There is a NS wave diving in and an STJ wave in the Gulf Coast. Members get to a big storm multiple ways. Some phase the two late off the mid Atlantic. Some of those still manage to get us with a 12z Gfs type solution. Some Miss though. Some get the NS out of the way first then bring the stj wave up. Some get the stj ahead and phase the NS in behind and some of those go nuts and cut like the storm last weekend. The non storm minority cluster have the NS dive in on top and crush everything. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Damn, I'm kinda digging the first threat 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn, I'm kinda digging the first threat No thread. Lol 1 1 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 No thread. LolEver. LolSent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH Eps with a positive shift for the day 5/6 threat . NS further east out ahead and more emphasis on the stj sw energy in the gulf . Both the 18z Euro and control are stronger with the sw ejecting out of the sw at hour 90. The trend so far this January has been for the NS to be modeled as faster when closing in range.. reel this one in! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 GFS would suggest major temp issues with anything on Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS would suggest major temp issues with anything on Tuesday Not to mention lack of precip issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS would suggest major temp issues with anything on Tuesday You mean the same GFS which did so well with temps this morning?. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: You mean the same GFS which did so well with temps this morning?. It runs cold brother. Once you adjust for that it's an incredible model for all forecast ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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