Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: It’s supposedly the largest documented storm to hit DC and Virginia. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson claimed in their diaries that snow reached a depth of 3 feet region wide. Hard to verify this though. No "official" records - but Washington, Jefferson and apparently some other people or orgs in the area wrote about it in detail. Have to hope that they weren't slant sticking. I've always thought that storm (if authentic) is probably the theoretical max for a single storm in this area. Based on how Washington wrote about it - it's even possible it was two storms back-to-back (similar to 2010) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Daaang...and that would he exactly 250 years next week, lol (looks like it was sometime between January 26th and January 29th that year) Which would also be the 100 year anniversary of the Knickerbocker Storm of 1922 which blew roof off DC Theater killing dozens of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, Jersey Andrew said: Which would also be the 100 year anniversary of the Knickerbocker Storm of 1922 which blew roof off DC Theater killing dozens of people. Yep (just edited my comment to include that). Would be really funny if we get a storm on those anniversaries, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: No "official" records - but Washington, Jefferson and apparently some other people or orgs in the area wrote about it in detail. Have to hope that they weren't slant sticking. I've always thought that storm (if authentic) is probably the theoretical max for a single storm in this area. Based on how Washington wrote about it - it's even possible it was two storms back-to-back (similar to 2010) Washington was OBVIOUSLY somewhere in the @Ji family tree. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Yep (just edited my comment to include that). Would be really funny if we get a storm on those anniversaries, lolNot on 18z run. Nothing to be had in the Gulf or the 500mbSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Southern stream making a quick escape this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 The Great Blizzard of 2022 has become nothing but northern stream vort passing by. That was a fun 6 hours. See yall at 11! 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Now when we wanted the southern vort to hold back, of course the GFS kicks it out ahead on this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 34 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You were good until '93. But averaged out, track should keep DC mostly snow 96/16 track, 93 intensity. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Not on 18z run. Nothing to be had in the Gulf or the 500mb Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk The idea is still there...other details will jump around at long leads. Day 9 is no time to start living and dying by runs, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Washington was OBVIOUSLY somewhere in the @Ji family tree. I dunno - If I'm remembering correctly he described it as "dreadful" - but again might be remembering wrong. The day @Ji describes a 36" blizzard as "dreadful" we know we are all in trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 We all know the timing is just as wrong this run as it was last run. The difference between the GFS accuracy at 222hrs and 216hrs is negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 It handles the NS remarkably similar just has no stj wave there to phase with this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It handles the NS remarkably similar just has no stj wave there to phase with this run. Then here's to this having this weekend's trend of holding back the stj wave to repeat itself next weekend, lol (but just enough, of course!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Even though there was no event this run it was closer than people realize. It didn't dig the shortwave as far into the southwest this run so the spacing was off. Looooooooong way to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Even though there was no event this run it was closer than people realize. It didn't dig the shortwave as far into the southwest this run so the spacing was off. Looooooooong way to go Yeah it was...I mean you can even see it phase and turn north off shore. Same kind of direction --could that indicate some kind of a trough in the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It handles the NS remarkably similar just has no stj wave there to phase with this run. Yeah the 12z run had that stj energy farther southwest initially which allowed the northern stream to phase. Wouldn't have taken much change this run, still like the time period for potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 28 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: It’s supposedly the largest documented storm to hit DC and Virginia. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson claimed in their diaries that snow reached a depth of 3 feet region wide. Hard to verify this though. I read about that somewhere and remember a quote like "...36 inches deep on a level." To have a snow depth of 36" the snowfall amounts by today's measuring must have been in the 45" range! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: I read about that somewhere and remember a quote like "...36 inches deep on a level." To have a snow depth of 36" the snowfall amounts by today's measuring must have been in the 45" range! Parts of the western suburbs got close to that total in both 2010 and 2016, so it's really not that far-fetched. Maybe for the coastal plain, but west of the fall line that is not an outrageous total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, mattskiva said: Parts of the western suburbs got close to that total in both 2010 and 2016, so it's really not that far-fetched. Maybe for the coastal plain, but west of the fall line that is not an outrageous total. True - but keep in mind I believe these obs were taken pretty close-in - like at Mount Vernon perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: True - but keep in mind I believe these obs were taken pretty close-in - like at Mount Vernon perhaps. Yeah, that's a little more surprising. Dulles got 32" in 2010 and 29" in 2016, both of which are close to three feet. But I think the numbers were quite a bit lower at National. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 56 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: It’s supposedly the largest documented storm to hit DC and Virginia. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson claimed in their diaries that snow reached a depth of 3 feet region wide. Hard to verify this though. DCA still would have measured 8. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 30 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yeah the 12z run had that stj energy farther southwest initially which allowed the northern stream to phase. Wouldn't have taken much change this run, still like the time period for potential. Yeah, was seeing that as well just didn’t realize the difference it would make downstream. Now we see. Ha. Need more energy helD back there. Need to keep an eye on that feature as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Keep the faith. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 59 minutes ago, mattskiva said: Yeah, that's a little more surprising. Dulles got 32" in 2010 and 29" in 2016, both of which are close to three feet. But I think the numbers were quite a bit lower at National. DCA recorded 17.8 in the 2010 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 There are timing issues between members so hard to catch in one frame but the majority of the gefs members like an amplified storm in that day 8-10 period. Actually they think a cutter is the bigger threat than OTS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 This is 24 hr precip. This is as big a signal as you will ever see at that range due to timing differences and outlier members that far out. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 ^precip pattern looks Miller B-ish? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Jersey Andrew said: It’s supposedly the largest documented storm to hit DC and Virginia. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson claimed in their diaries that snow reached a depth of 3 feet region wide. Hard to verify this though. They measured snow in perches back then, not feet. Must be a forgery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is 24 hr precip. This is as big a signal as you will ever see at that range due to timing differences and outlier members that far out. So, something interesting of note on the 18z euro. Yea it only goes out to 90 hours and this probably means very little at this range, but there's a significant change that could impact things down the line. If you follow the 12z gfs through its run the stj energy that ends up phasing with the northern stream enters the CONUS around 90 hours out. The 12z gfs dug this energy pretty far SW which then gave more room for the northern stream to catch up to it. 18z gfs didn't dig it as far and it sped up the wave, thus the missed phase etc etc... Well, check out the differences on the 18z euro in Southwest Canada. The new 18z euro has a much better trajectory to send a wave into the southwest...im extremely bored and desperate, but here goes... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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