yoda Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Northern stream kills it soon after Gets ripped apart right after 120 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Desperately need some blocking to develop for all of these coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: From a longwave pattern perspective they are supportive. Can’t ask for a better ridge/trough alignment. Obviously not saying for a 950mb storm but a storm in general. But I did say this type of pattern will a epo ridge and deep eastern trough without blocking can open the door to amplified storms if you can get a phase. Ridge axis over Boise is classic. But that +AO and +NAO should temper everyone’s hope for a KU. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: From a longwave pattern perspective they are supportive. Can’t ask for a better ridge/trough alignment. Obviously not saying for a 950mb storm but a storm in general. But I did say this type of pattern will a epo ridge and deep eastern trough without blocking can open the door to amplified storms if you can get a phase. Yeah I was simply referring to MSLP, low placement, etc and mentioned the window worth tracking for the very reason you show above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: You can have the slider on the 25th if I can have that one You act like you don't know how this goes if it happens at all. You and your roof will be under severe strain. Mine would be just diet strain. There's a storm coming folks! Psu is worried about fringe! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I'm out to 192...Euro trying something. Lets see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Euro not gonna get it done..but it's close enough. Northern stream drops in...trof does go negative, but it's too broad..axis too far east. but it's close enough at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: From a longwave pattern perspective they are supportive. Can’t ask for a better ridge/trough alignment. Obviously not saying for a 950mb storm but a storm in general. But I did say this type of pattern will a epo ridge and deep eastern trough without blocking can open the door to amplified storms if you can get a phase. Love when the Montana nose is sniffing the ridge up high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro not gonna get it done..but it's close enough. Northern stream drops in...trof does go negative, but it's too broad..axis too far east. but it's close enough at this range. thats probably your most meteorological post of all time. Not sure if its true (but it sounds good) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ridge axis over Boise is classic. But that +AO and +NAO should temper everyone’s hope for a KU. Agreed. One interesting thing to watch though is in the frames right after the one I posted some ridging develops near Hudson Bay. That’s a feature that shows up in a lot of our non blocking snowstorms acting as a proxy in a way. If we see that more clearly in future runs it might increase probability of a decent storm a bit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: thats probably your most meteorological post of all time. Not sure if its true (but it sounds good) I think you made one 5 or 6 years ago? 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Guess it is going to be a long 2 weeks if we are comparing Op runs at Day 9….WB 12Z EURO, Can and GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 35 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said: Love when the Montana nose is sniffing the ridge up high Something about that just sounds wrong, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Guess it is going to be a long 2 weeks if we are comparing Op runs at Day 9….WB 12Z EURO, Can and GFS. 10 days is the new 2 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Agreed. One interesting thing to watch though is in the frames right after the one I posted some ridging develops near Hudson Bay. That’s a feature that shows up in a lot of our non blocking snowstorms acting as a proxy in a way. If we see that more clearly in future runs it might increase probability of a decent storm a bit. Definitely showing up more on the 12z EPS compared to recent runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 40 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I think you made one 5 or 6 years ago? 6 years ago when i nailed the Jan 2016 blizzard from 2 days out 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 53 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro not gonna get it done..but it's close enough. Northern stream drops in...trof does go negative, but it's too broad..axis too far east. but it's close enough at this range. so close! and a monster 1012 low to boot! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I hope the EPS continues to be wrong….WB 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I hope the EPS continues to be wrong….WB 12Z. looks plausible 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, Ji said: looks plausible The old rule when it shows no snow….it’s probably right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: The old rule when it shows no snow….it’s probably right. Thought that rule was only for the GFS? Lol (which in this case DOES show snow ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ji said: looks plausible Trying reverse psychology….at least I won’t be up to look at the OZ EURO for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Trying reverse psychology….at least I won’t be up to look at the OZ EURO for awhile. The Euro from the land of OZ? Follow the yellow EPS road 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 46 minutes ago, Ji said: so close! and a monster 1012 low to boot! Yes, precip maps are the only thing you need to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I hope the EPS continues to be wrong….WB 12Z. So it’s a coincidence that for the last week when the eps and gefs was spitting out means with 6-10” and weenie run after weenie run you were too busy to post them…but you’re Johnny on the spot when it spits out the first truly awful run in quite a while? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So it’s a coincidence that for the last week when the eps and gefs was spitting out means with 6-10” and weenie run after weenie run you were too busy to post them…but you’re Johnny on the spot when it spits out the first truly awful run in quite a while? I post a lot of snow maps, both good and bad. Actually I am happy with January. It was cold and I have about 10 inches to date. Would love a big storm by mid March though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 38 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I hope the EPS continues to be wrong….WB 12Z. Hell. I would take the EPS over the HR Euro in a heartbeat: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 8:45 PM, Weather Will said: WB EPS individual members Being a lawyer, I will post exhibit A to prove to PSU and to others with selective memory that I do post positive EPS Maps as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Being a lawyer, I will post exhibit A to prove to PSU and to others with selective memory that I do post positive EPS Maps as well. Several times the mean was 6 inches and zero snow fell within the forecast timeframe. Beyond these maps the only thing worse is the surreal control model. Never is it even close to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 hours ago, frd said: Several times the mean was 6 inches and zero snow fell within the forecast timeframe. Beyond these maps the only thing worse is the surreal control model. Never is it even close to reality. I think the ensembles have shown the colder pattern very nicely but for storms I don’t think they are any better than just looking at the global models. They flop around like a fish also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now