cbmclean Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Central NC with close to 3 feet. Seems reasonable. I give it my stamp of approval. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: Not much support on the GEFS for the OP. A few members have storms in the east but its a mixed bag of precip. Certainly worth tracking the window. Outdated inferior physics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You can have the slider on the 25th if I can have that one No deal! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Outdated inferior physics. Definitely proved the point over the last few weeks. Aren't they upgrading the GEFS? I read that on here recently me thought. I am getting old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 29 minutes ago, nj2va said: Not much support on the GEFS for the OP. A few members have storms in the east but its a mixed bag of precip. Certainly worth tracking the window. From a longwave pattern perspective they are supportive. Can’t ask for a better ridge/trough alignment. Obviously not saying for a 950mb storm but a storm in general. But I did say this type of pattern will a epo ridge and deep eastern trough without blocking can open the door to amplified storms if you can get a phase. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Euro looking a little better for next week with the Northern Stream out running the southern stream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Euro has a gulf low at 114 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Northern stream kills it soon after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Euro has a gulf low at 114 hours out Nice storms for Jamaica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Northern stream kills it soon after Gets ripped apart right after 120 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Desperately need some blocking to develop for all of these coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: From a longwave pattern perspective they are supportive. Can’t ask for a better ridge/trough alignment. Obviously not saying for a 950mb storm but a storm in general. But I did say this type of pattern will a epo ridge and deep eastern trough without blocking can open the door to amplified storms if you can get a phase. Ridge axis over Boise is classic. But that +AO and +NAO should temper everyone’s hope for a KU. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: From a longwave pattern perspective they are supportive. Can’t ask for a better ridge/trough alignment. Obviously not saying for a 950mb storm but a storm in general. But I did say this type of pattern will a epo ridge and deep eastern trough without blocking can open the door to amplified storms if you can get a phase. Yeah I was simply referring to MSLP, low placement, etc and mentioned the window worth tracking for the very reason you show above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: You can have the slider on the 25th if I can have that one You act like you don't know how this goes if it happens at all. You and your roof will be under severe strain. Mine would be just diet strain. There's a storm coming folks! Psu is worried about fringe! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I'm out to 192...Euro trying something. Lets see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Euro not gonna get it done..but it's close enough. Northern stream drops in...trof does go negative, but it's too broad..axis too far east. but it's close enough at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: From a longwave pattern perspective they are supportive. Can’t ask for a better ridge/trough alignment. Obviously not saying for a 950mb storm but a storm in general. But I did say this type of pattern will a epo ridge and deep eastern trough without blocking can open the door to amplified storms if you can get a phase. Love when the Montana nose is sniffing the ridge up high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro not gonna get it done..but it's close enough. Northern stream drops in...trof does go negative, but it's too broad..axis too far east. but it's close enough at this range. thats probably your most meteorological post of all time. Not sure if its true (but it sounds good) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ridge axis over Boise is classic. But that +AO and +NAO should temper everyone’s hope for a KU. Agreed. One interesting thing to watch though is in the frames right after the one I posted some ridging develops near Hudson Bay. That’s a feature that shows up in a lot of our non blocking snowstorms acting as a proxy in a way. If we see that more clearly in future runs it might increase probability of a decent storm a bit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: thats probably your most meteorological post of all time. Not sure if its true (but it sounds good) I think you made one 5 or 6 years ago? 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Guess it is going to be a long 2 weeks if we are comparing Op runs at Day 9….WB 12Z EURO, Can and GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 35 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said: Love when the Montana nose is sniffing the ridge up high Something about that just sounds wrong, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Guess it is going to be a long 2 weeks if we are comparing Op runs at Day 9….WB 12Z EURO, Can and GFS. 10 days is the new 2 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Agreed. One interesting thing to watch though is in the frames right after the one I posted some ridging develops near Hudson Bay. That’s a feature that shows up in a lot of our non blocking snowstorms acting as a proxy in a way. If we see that more clearly in future runs it might increase probability of a decent storm a bit. Definitely showing up more on the 12z EPS compared to recent runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 40 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I think you made one 5 or 6 years ago? 6 years ago when i nailed the Jan 2016 blizzard from 2 days out 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 53 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro not gonna get it done..but it's close enough. Northern stream drops in...trof does go negative, but it's too broad..axis too far east. but it's close enough at this range. so close! and a monster 1012 low to boot! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I hope the EPS continues to be wrong….WB 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I hope the EPS continues to be wrong….WB 12Z. looks plausible 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, Ji said: looks plausible The old rule when it shows no snow….it’s probably right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: The old rule when it shows no snow….it’s probably right. Thought that rule was only for the GFS? Lol (which in this case DOES show snow ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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