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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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29 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Not much support on the GEFS for the OP.  A few members have storms in the east but its a mixed bag of precip.  Certainly worth tracking the window.

From a longwave pattern perspective they are supportive. Can’t ask for a better ridge/trough alignment. Obviously not saying for a 950mb storm but a storm in general. But I did say this type of pattern will a epo ridge and deep eastern trough without blocking can open the door to amplified storms if you can get a phase. 
A296D0E3-961C-4153-AF65-5B048C1A9011.thumb.jpeg.f8ac76fb62aafd435f4ef1b0d06d84dc.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

From a longwave pattern perspective they are supportive. Can’t ask for a better ridge/trough alignment. Obviously not saying for a 950mb storm but a storm in general. But I did say this type of pattern will a epo ridge and deep eastern trough without blocking can open the door to amplified storms if you can get a phase. 
A296D0E3-961C-4153-AF65-5B048C1A9011.thumb.jpeg.f8ac76fb62aafd435f4ef1b0d06d84dc.jpeg

Ridge axis over Boise is classic. But that +AO and +NAO should temper everyone’s hope for a KU.

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

From a longwave pattern perspective they are supportive. Can’t ask for a better ridge/trough alignment. Obviously not saying for a 950mb storm but a storm in general. But I did say this type of pattern will a epo ridge and deep eastern trough without blocking can open the door to amplified storms if you can get a phase. 
A296D0E3-961C-4153-AF65-5B048C1A9011.thumb.jpeg.f8ac76fb62aafd435f4ef1b0d06d84dc.jpeg

Yeah I was simply referring to MSLP, low placement, etc and mentioned the window worth tracking for the very reason you show above. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You can have the slider on the 25th if I can have that one

You act like you don't know how this goes if it happens at all.  You and your roof will be under severe strain.  Mine would be just diet strain.

There's a storm coming folks!  Psu is worried about fringe! 

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

From a longwave pattern perspective they are supportive. Can’t ask for a better ridge/trough alignment. Obviously not saying for a 950mb storm but a storm in general. But I did say this type of pattern will a epo ridge and deep eastern trough without blocking can open the door to amplified storms if you can get a phase. 
A296D0E3-961C-4153-AF65-5B048C1A9011.thumb.jpeg.f8ac76fb62aafd435f4ef1b0d06d84dc.jpeg

Love when the Montana nose is sniffing the ridge up high

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro not gonna get it done..but it's close enough.  Northern stream drops in...trof does go negative, but it's too broad..axis too far east.  but it's close enough at this range.

thats probably your most meteorological post of all time. Not sure if its true (but it sounds good)

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16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ridge axis over Boise is classic. But that +AO and +NAO should temper everyone’s hope for a KU.

Agreed. One interesting thing to watch though is in the frames right after the one I posted some ridging develops near Hudson Bay. That’s a feature that shows up in a lot of our non blocking snowstorms acting as a proxy in a way. If we see that more clearly in future runs it might increase probability of a decent storm a bit. 

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31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agreed. One interesting thing to watch though is in the frames right after the one I posted some ridging develops near Hudson Bay. That’s a feature that shows up in a lot of our non blocking snowstorms acting as a proxy in a way. If we see that more clearly in future runs it might increase probability of a decent storm a bit. 

Definitely showing up more on the 12z EPS compared to recent runs. 

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53 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro not gonna get it done..but it's close enough.  Northern stream drops in...trof does go negative, but it's too broad..axis too far east.  but it's close enough at this range.

so close! and a monster 1012 low to boot!

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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