LP08 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Major Jan 3 vibes from how the Icon develops next weeks chance. Northern stream gets out of the way, brings cold air, and let’s the southern stream ride over us. GFS was close to the same thing, southern stream just needs to hang back a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, LP08 said: GFS was close to the same thing, southern stream just needs to hang back a little bit. There is a path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Major Jan 3 vibes from how the Icon develops next weeks chance. Northern stream gets out of the way, brings cold air, and let’s the southern stream ride over us. I have to go throw up now. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Major Jan 3 vibes from how the Icon develops next weeks chance. Northern stream gets out of the way, brings cold air, and let’s the southern stream ride over us. Oh. So we're calling for another 8 to 12 inch storm here... got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I accidentally posted this in banter but it’s relevant to our future analysis. The Gfs love has been a bit exaggerated. It did get the Jan 3 storm right first but only by about 12 hours. The other guidance started trending north also just one cycle later. And the GFS way over compensated. 24-36 hours out it showed 6” for me and had 2-3” way up onto central PA. I didn’t see a single flake. The Gfs was awful with the next wave. It was consistently showing .4-.6 qpf along 95. We had 15-1 ratios. That would have been 6-8” if it was right. The NAM and Euro were much much better with that storm. It wasn’t very good with the amplified inside runner either. Actually the ggem probably did best with locking on to the extreme solution early and sticking with it. Gfs teased with a couple runs of big snow then went too far west for a couple runs then back too far east. And it looks to have been awful today. It’s been better then the joke it used to be and it’s been better than the euro but it’s not been killing it every time like some seem to think The Euro criticism has been valid though. It’s really mishandled several NS SS interactions lately, which to be fair was a known weakness but not making excuses it’s been bad and anecdotally it seems more jumpy and prone to tangents in the medium range since the last major resolution upgrade years ago. It does do an impressive job for a global with meso scale features now but maybe it’s now got some of the high resolution CAMs issues that can become problematic with Synoptics at range. Not sure that was really a good trade. Maybe, and just speculation, having a short range euro at high resolution and a longer range lower resolution focused on Synoptics past 72 hours would be better. So basically none of them are great. GFS is probably a “.500 ball club” this winter season so far and Euro is “10 games under .500”. (In baseball terms not football haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Northern streams is just brutal on the GFS 6z and now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Honestly, at this point I don't want the GFS to show anything pre 160 hours or so. Shit changes every run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 And of course that being said, the GFS looks loaded in the fantasy time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 What a monster brewing though at 192 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, LP08 said: What a monster brewing though at 192 I'm sure it'll happen this time! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 @psuhoffman Storm about to rock and roll on the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Hasn't the GFS been showing something for this time period? Keeps finding different ways to get there, but there has been a storm signal on it for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: What a monster brewing though at 192 Oh man that's tasty looking, trough about to go negative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 We get #fringed where is PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @psuhoffman Storm about to rock and roll on the GFS we get wrecked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 H5 looks pretty good on the 29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: We get #fringed where is PSU Stop posting 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hasn't the GFS been showing something for this time period? Keeps finding different ways to get there, but there has been a storm signal on it for a few runs. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Looks liike a legit blizzard. Holy ****. 958mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Oh ok 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I would call it a winter if we could just get that to happen. Man oh man 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: we get wrecked now this is a digital snow post for the ages, 957 mb low lmao 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Lol 960 off Va beach. Its fun to dream. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 YES! Another major threat that's about 10 days away! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hasn't the GFS been showing something for this time period? Keeps finding different ways to get there, but there has been a storm signal on it for a few runs. 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: we get wrecked Next Tuesday-Wednesday and then next weekend have been threat “windows” on the ensembles for several days already with transient Op run hits and teases. This is obviously a fun solution that will be gone in 6 hours, but its still a time period to watch. We should have a good idea in a week lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Stop posting I'm not wrong its just being "fringed" is getting around 20 inches of snow. Not upset with the run just pointing out we sort of get fringed, sort of as a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looks liike a legit blizzard. Holy ****. 958mb Snow hurricane omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Next Tuesday-Wednesday and then next weekend have been threat “windows” on the ensembles for several days already with transient Op run hits and teases. This is obviously a fun solution that will be gone in 6 hours, but its still a time period to watch. We should have a good idea in a week lol. Yeah, agreed. This digital dopamine hit has been fun. But this is a perfect solution and there's no way its going to go down like that, if at all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Major Jan 3 vibes from how the Icon develops next weeks chance. Northern stream gets out of the way, brings cold air, and let’s the southern stream ride over us. sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: I'm not wrong its just being "fringed" is getting around 20 inches of snow. Not upset with the run just pointing out we sort of get fringed, sort of as a joke. Ha. Ha. Hilarious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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