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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Major Jan 3 vibes from how the Icon develops next weeks chance. Northern stream gets out of the way, brings cold air, and let’s the southern stream ride over us.

GFS was close to the same thing, southern stream just needs to hang back a little bit.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I accidentally posted this in banter but it’s relevant to our future analysis.

The Gfs love has been a bit exaggerated. It did get the Jan 3 storm right first but only by about 12 hours. The other guidance started trending north also just one cycle later. And the GFS way over compensated. 24-36 hours out it showed 6” for me and had 2-3” way up onto central PA.  I didn’t see a single flake. 
 

The Gfs was awful with the next wave. It was consistently showing .4-.6 qpf along 95. We had 15-1 ratios. That would have been 6-8” if it was right. The NAM and Euro were much much better with that storm. 

It wasn’t very good with the amplified inside runner either. Actually the ggem probably did best with locking on to the extreme solution early and sticking with it. Gfs teased with a couple runs of big snow then went too far west for a couple runs then back too far east.  And it looks to have been awful today.  It’s been better then the joke it used to be and it’s been better than the euro but it’s not been killing it every time like some seem to think  

The Euro criticism has been valid though. It’s really mishandled several NS SS interactions lately, which to be fair was a known weakness but not making excuses it’s been bad and anecdotally it seems more jumpy and prone to tangents in the medium range since the last major resolution upgrade years ago. It does do an impressive job for a global with meso scale features now but maybe it’s now got some of the high resolution CAMs issues that can become problematic with Synoptics at range. Not sure that was really a good trade. Maybe, and just speculation, having a short range euro at high resolution and a longer range lower resolution focused on Synoptics past 72 hours would be better. 

So basically none of them are great. GFS  is probably a “.500 ball club” this winter season so far and Euro is “10 games under .500”. (In baseball terms not football haha)

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hasn't the GFS been showing something for this time period?  Keeps finding different ways to get there, but there has been a storm signal on it for a few runs.

 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

we get wrecked

Next Tuesday-Wednesday and then next weekend have been threat “windows” on the ensembles for several days already with transient Op run hits and teases. This is obviously a fun solution that will be gone in 6 hours, but its still a time period to watch. We should have a good idea in a week lol.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Next Tuesday-Wednesday and then next weekend have been threat “windows” on the ensembles for several days already with transient Op run hits and teases. This is obviously a fun solution that will be gone in 6 hours, but its still a time period to watch. We should have a good idea in a week lol.

Yeah, agreed.  This digital dopamine hit has been fun.  But this is a perfect solution and there's no way its going to go down like that, if at all.

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