CAPE Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, I don't get what happened to all this blocking that was expected this winter. Notoriously difficult to predict at range. The QBO is favorable but I believe the connection to HL blocking is nebulous, especially in isolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Super LR EPS (Days 11-15) shows winter may be taking a vacation soon looking at h5... trough returns out west and ridging returns for us h/t @CoastalWx 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully this is right and we can just end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 La ninas tend to make a come back late Feb through mid march. March 2001 redux coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, yoda said: lol Day 10-11 on 06z GFS... now thats some crazy snowstorm development that misses DC... but smokes NC/Eastern Shore on up to PHL and into SNE At the d10-11 range, as long as a storm is in the vicinity, I'm good. Heck, I'm already all in for that weekend period, just in case this could be our last chance this winter for a bigger snow this year, assuming the typical nina se ridge conditions come back next month. But we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ji said: 45 minutes ago, yoda said: La ninas tend to make a come back late Feb through mid march. March 2001 redux coming Weird year right? A flip to an annoying -pna makes a lot of sense unfortunately. The west got straight blitzed with a storm cycle to close the year then mostly ridge/dry since. Time for that to change. Doesn't mean we roast. No idea. But a trough returning in the west for a time seems highly likely to my gut. Then, like you said, maybe another busy cold period. A -pna in Feb isn't always bad anyways. Depends on how the wavelengths set up. Canada remains good for manufacturing cold air in general. A -pna in that environment is far from the same when then pac jet goes zonal. That's a shutout 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weird year right? A flip to an annoying -pna makes a lot of sense unfortunately. The west got straight blitzed with a storm cycle to close the year then mostly ridge/dry since. Time for that to change. Doesn't mean we roast. No idea. But a trough returning in the west for a time seems highly likely to my gut. Then, like you said, maybe another busy cold period. A -pna in Feb isn't always bad anyways. Depends on how the wavelengths set up. Canada remains good for manufacturing cold air in general. A -pna in that environment is far from the same when then pac jet goes zonal. That's a shutout agree. Alot of people just assume that we go back to the December pattern but i think there will be windows where we can get something lucky. I would be surprised if we didnt get an early march event though but the non stop tracking days will likely end soon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 22 hours ago, Anyweather said: Whoa?! Forgive me for butting in but how is that cost justified. Access issues? Distance from suppliers? That’s $530/ sq ft.! 300k is just for the framing members and log walls. The other 600k is basically everything else. Shipping is actually only 2500. I will say they have everything you can think of broken out so there wouldn't be any surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, yoda said: Super LR EPS (Days 11-15) shows winter may be taking a vacation soon looking at h5... trough returns out west and ridging returns for us Makes sense. The pattern we are in started to take shape the end of December. If the western trough comes back the first week of February that would be 5 weeks of a solid pattern for the East. Pretty darn good in my opinion. Doesn't mean we revert to a shut out pattern as a -pna can work in February as long as the entire pacific doesn't completely go the sh#t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weird year right? A flip to an annoying -pna makes a lot of sense unfortunately. The west got straight blitzed with a storm cycle to close the year then mostly ridge/dry since. Time for that to change. Doesn't mean we roast. No idea. But a trough returning in the west for a time seems highly likely to my gut. Then, like you said, maybe another busy cold period. A -pna in Feb isn't always bad anyways. Depends on how the wavelengths set up. Canada remains good for manufacturing cold air in general. A -pna in that environment is far from the same when then pac jet goes zonal. That's a shutout pna definitely looks to go negative but not nearly as bad as in December. epo and wpo look to remain generally negative. There will be a lot of cold nearby so it will come down to timing and luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: pna definitely looks to go negative but not nearly as bad as in December. epo and wpo look to remain generally negative. There will be a lot of cold nearby so it will come down to timing and luck. Exactly. I mean sure, -pna is not favored here. Never has never will. Not all pnas are equally bad. As long as the western half of Canada keeps the -epo cold factory intact, we're always just a front or 2 away from snow temps. Seen far worse in recent years. That's for sure. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Super LR EPS (Days 11-15) shows winter may be taking a vacation soon looking at h5... trough returns out west and ridging returns for us Just in time for my trip to Vail Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Mike Masco says the AO/NAO is looking to go negative in February. Is there support for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Mike Masco says the AO/NAO is looking to go negative in February. Is there support for that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 11 hours ago, Ji said: 12 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The adjustment we need is well within a typical error at that range. But if we really want to increase our chances to maximize potential getting that tpv back towards Hudson Bay would make it a lot easier to get something to amplify before it’s off the coast. The eps snow mean for us 2 days ago for Friday was 10 inches The euro has a very pronounced over amplification bias in the medium range. You’ve said as much many times. So when it was doing that mainly becauss it was the only model showing that amplified a SW it was pretty obviously bunk. There are times we could believe the euro on its own. If it’s a split flow STJ wave then I might buy the euro v all others. But never when it’s over amplifying a NS SW. 1 hour ago, Ji said: agree. Alot of people just assume that we go back to the December pattern but i think there will be windows where we can get something lucky. I would be surprised if we didnt get an early march event though but the non stop tracking days will likely end soon You really can be one of the best posters when you want to be! For the record I enjoy some of your melts and rants but it’s better when it’s some of the time and when it’s warranted not 99% of the time. 30 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Mike Masco says the AO/NAO is looking to go negative in February. Is there support for that? I’ve not seen a lot in terms of the typical Strat tea leaves that would support, only speculation. But he could be simply playing the odds using the recent cyclical trends and I’m doing that myself. It’s unlikely based on recent trends the NAO stays positive the rest of winter. I would favor later in Feb into March myself though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 tuesday still doesn't look impossible on the gfs and that east coast stemwinder next weekend is intriguing. i'm turning my attention now towards mecs's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I mean 00z ukie at 144 at h5 looks mildly interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I accidentally posted this in banter but it’s relevant to our future analysis. The Gfs love has been a bit exaggerated. It did get the Jan 3 storm right first but only by about 12 hours. The other guidance started trending north also just one cycle later. And the GFS way over compensated. 24-36 hours out it showed 6” for me and had 2-3” way up onto central PA. I didn’t see a single flake. The Gfs was awful with the next wave. It was consistently showing .4-.6 qpf along 95. We had 15-1 ratios. That would have been 6-8” if it was right. The NAM and Euro were much much better with that storm. It wasn’t very good with the amplified inside runner either. Actually the ggem probably did best with locking on to the extreme solution early and sticking with it. Gfs teased with a couple runs of big snow then went too far west for a couple runs then back too far east. And it looks to have been awful today. It’s been better then the joke it used to be and it’s been better than the euro but it’s not been killing it every time like some seem to think The Euro criticism has been valid though. It’s really mishandled several NS SS interactions lately, which to be fair was a known weakness but not making excuses it’s been bad and anecdotally it seems more jumpy and prone to tangents in the medium range since the last major resolution upgrade years ago. It does do an impressive job for a global with meso scale features now but maybe it’s now got some of the high resolution CAMs issues that can become problematic with Synoptics at range. Not sure that was really a good trade. Maybe, and just speculation, having a short range euro at high resolution and a longer range lower resolution focused on Synoptics past 72 hours would be better. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Icon showing something early next week…let’s see what the GFS does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 ICON shows a path to victory next week. Northern stream gets out of the way first and the southern stream can do its own thing. Surface is a touch warm but cold is not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 GFS, just maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Major Jan 3 vibes from how the Icon develops next weeks chance. Northern stream gets out of the way, brings cold air, and let’s the southern stream ride over us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Major Jan 3 vibes from how the Icon develops next weeks chance. Northern stream gets out of the way, brings cold air, and let’s the southern stream ride over us. GFS was close to the same thing, southern stream just needs to hang back a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, LP08 said: GFS was close to the same thing, southern stream just needs to hang back a little bit. There is a path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Major Jan 3 vibes from how the Icon develops next weeks chance. Northern stream gets out of the way, brings cold air, and let’s the southern stream ride over us. I have to go throw up now. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Major Jan 3 vibes from how the Icon develops next weeks chance. Northern stream gets out of the way, brings cold air, and let’s the southern stream ride over us. Oh. So we're calling for another 8 to 12 inch storm here... got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I accidentally posted this in banter but it’s relevant to our future analysis. The Gfs love has been a bit exaggerated. It did get the Jan 3 storm right first but only by about 12 hours. The other guidance started trending north also just one cycle later. And the GFS way over compensated. 24-36 hours out it showed 6” for me and had 2-3” way up onto central PA. I didn’t see a single flake. The Gfs was awful with the next wave. It was consistently showing .4-.6 qpf along 95. We had 15-1 ratios. That would have been 6-8” if it was right. The NAM and Euro were much much better with that storm. It wasn’t very good with the amplified inside runner either. Actually the ggem probably did best with locking on to the extreme solution early and sticking with it. Gfs teased with a couple runs of big snow then went too far west for a couple runs then back too far east. And it looks to have been awful today. It’s been better then the joke it used to be and it’s been better than the euro but it’s not been killing it every time like some seem to think The Euro criticism has been valid though. It’s really mishandled several NS SS interactions lately, which to be fair was a known weakness but not making excuses it’s been bad and anecdotally it seems more jumpy and prone to tangents in the medium range since the last major resolution upgrade years ago. It does do an impressive job for a global with meso scale features now but maybe it’s now got some of the high resolution CAMs issues that can become problematic with Synoptics at range. Not sure that was really a good trade. Maybe, and just speculation, having a short range euro at high resolution and a longer range lower resolution focused on Synoptics past 72 hours would be better. So basically none of them are great. GFS is probably a “.500 ball club” this winter season so far and Euro is “10 games under .500”. (In baseball terms not football haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Northern streams is just brutal on the GFS 6z and now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Honestly, at this point I don't want the GFS to show anything pre 160 hours or so. Shit changes every run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 And of course that being said, the GFS looks loaded in the fantasy time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 What a monster brewing though at 192 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now