stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Oddly enough became a bunch of nothing... lets see what goes on now at 204 It doesn't matter because its going to be different in 6 hours 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Oddly enough became a bunch of nothing... lets see what goes on now at 204Nothing yet again. Either the patern is done or opp models have had enough and can't interpret the upper air. Everything goes flat and suppressed/ OTS.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 31 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I believe so! And here's the one for the NAM... Well if thar be the NAM...the JMA AND SREFs must be calculators 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Nothing yet again. Either the patern is done or opp models have had enough and can't interpret the upper air. Everything goes flat and suppressed/ OTS. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Like others have said...don't sweat specific solutions right now. A storm idea is there...far too early for other details! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Like others have said...don't sweat specific solutions right now. A storm idea is there...far too early for other details!Thanks for bringing me back off the ledge. I was ready to jump into the Panic Room Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 that was a very boring 18z GFS run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, yoda said: that was a very boring 18z GFS run Sure was. Last few GFS runs have backed off on the cold for next week as well. Euro is much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The end of the 18z GFS was super lulz... banana highs... strong s/w getting ready to phase at h5 I believe at 384... and a developing SLP in E MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Sure was. Last few GFS runs have backed off on the cold for next week as well. Euro is much colder. Even had some 60s and 70s at the end of its run for DC south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Thanks for bringing me back off the ledge. I was ready to jump into the Panic Room Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Ledge walkers gotta help each other out, lol But seriously I get it...it does kinda feel like the next 10-14 days are kinda do or die for a good snow chance if the pattern indeed returns to a more typical nina state next month. So hopefully by Sunday or Monday we know about the 25th-29th time frame...The famous "as the pattern breaks down" scenario would certainly be in play there, me thinks...so we shall see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Not sure why y'all pay any mind to LR op runs. GEFS looks pretty cold next week. Moisture is yet to be determined. Looks like offshore low development is still favored in general. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh wow are those the actual supercomputers?? Clustered computing is more of a correct term. Massively parallel computing has taken over single compute for a while. Even on the desktop. Even scarier is all the wasted resources used for cryptocurrency mining put to beneficial scientific use whether it be weather modeling, medicine, hydrology, et al is absolutely mind blowing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 yikes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: yikes 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I would like to see the PV lobe set up a bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: If you toggle 0z and today's recent 18z it's a significant change with trough alignment and the PV lobe trended nw . The adjustment we need is well within a typical error at that range. But if we really want to increase our chances to maximize potential getting that tpv back towards Hudson Bay would make it a lot easier to get something to amplify before it’s off the coast. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 The adjustment we need is well within a typical error at that range. But if we really want to increase our chances to maximize potential getting that tpv back towards Hudson Bay would make it a lot easier to get something to amplify before it’s off the coast. The eps snow mean for us 2 days ago for Friday was 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 The eps snow mean for us 2 days ago for Friday was 10 inches2 days ago I also had more money in my bank account Now SE folks are jumping off the pier in VA Beach to bring back their totals Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would like to see the PV lobe set up a bit further west. I feel we have been close to ideal just a few times but needed small adjustments to be at our best. Things seem workable but not ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 11 hours ago, CentralVaNATS said: Nothing yet again. Either the patern is done or opp models have had enough and can't interpret the upper air. Everything goes flat and suppressed/ OTS. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk The pattern is done? What? Why? Don’t worry so much about vanishing fantasy storms in the 168-384 hr range on individual OP runs. Use the OPs loosely to get an idea of the overall potential ahead (will we have a source of cold air? are models sniffing out a ridge out west? Any potential storms forming? NS / SS interaction? Etc) Worrying about smaller details such as storm track, rain v. snow is pretty much irrelevant this far out. Next run could very well show 3 crippling snowstorms, which we should also take with a grain of salt. We look to the long range for an overall framework of the pattern ahead, use the medium range to begin sniffing out individual threats, and the short range brings us details / clarity on those specific threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Thats some weird look from 132 to 144 on 06z GFS for next Tuesday ETA -- looks like part of it is due to the h5 washing out/weakening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 lol Day 10-11 on 06z GFS... now thats some crazy snowstorm development that misses DC... but smokes NC/Eastern Shore on up to PHL and into SNE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 lol Day 10-11 on 06z GFS... now thats some crazy snowstorm development that misses DC... but smokes NC/Eastern Shore on up to PHL and into SNESounds reasonable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Thats some weird look from 132 to 144 on 06z GFS for next Tuesday ETA -- looks like part of it is due to the h5 washing out/weakeningThe northern stream is killing us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Not much of a signal on the latest ensembles for a storm over the next week. The general theme is too much NS energy flattening any southern wave that comes east, with some coastal development offshore where the thermal boundary is located. Need some amplification to get precip onshore though. Otherwise it's snow for the fish. Still time for modeled location and timing shifts associated with NS energy shedding off the TPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 WB 6Z GFS….maybe we will see something trend in our favor over the next 5 days… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Not much of a signal on the latest ensembles for a storm over the next week. The general theme is too much NS energy flattening any southern wave that comes east, with some coastal development offshore where the thermal boundary is located. Need some amplification to get precip onshore though. Otherwise it's snow for the fish. Still time for modeled location and timing shifts associated with NS energy shedding off the TPV.Just on many s/w and fast flow. Where is that blocking promised by the e qbo. So frustrating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Tuesday looked like crap on the 06z GFS I thought the gfs was an improvement over its 00z run. Obviously not huge but has some energy passing south of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not much of a signal on the latest ensembles for a storm over the next week. The general theme is too much NS energy flattening any southern wave that comes east, with some coastal development offshore where the thermal boundary is located. Need some amplification to get precip onshore though. Otherwise it's snow for the fish. Still time for modeled location and timing shifts associated with NS energy shedding off the TPV. Just on many s/w and fast flow. Where is that blocking promised by the e qbo. So frustrating Yeah, I don't get what happened to all this blocking that was expected this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Super LR EPS (Days 11-15) shows winter may be taking a vacation soon looking at h5... trough returns out west and ridging returns for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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