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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It's close.  Sort of similar to the GFS, but with a stronger southern stream low.  Move that northern stream a little faster so it can drag the boundary back southward and that's a nice hit.  

But check h5.  Its a strong s/w in the South at 138-144... then it washes out as it goes along

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Maybe so... but that ridge out west is out in the Eastern Pacific Ocean which is causing a trough out west, which usually isn't good news for us

If I'm not mistaken, the Euro has a block and a low on its way to the 50/50 region, which would help keep it from cutting.

Not that it matters, of course, since it's the Euro all the way at 240.

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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Maybe so... but that ridge out west is out in the Eastern Pacific Ocean which is causing a trough out west, which usually isn't good news for us

ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

 

Not sure I agree. The right look in the east can turn that look into good storms here, even cutters.

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12 minutes ago, yoda said:

Maybe so... but that ridge out west is out in the Eastern Pacific Ocean which is causing a trough out west, which usually isn't good news for us

ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

 

Have to look at everything in totality. Without the blocked up flow in the northeast it would be a problem. Also the pac ridge is far enough east that with the trough still east of Hawaii and the blocked flow it’s probably gonna slide east. No way to know though. If it’s too slow and the flow relaxes it could cut. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That was my read on it also. 

Yoda had originally posted without an image, but I think you can see how it might play out with that look at 240.

Man...it'll be shocking (annoying) if we go through the next two weeks without something hitting for 5"+ in the general area.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not sure I agree. The right look in the east can turn that look into good storms here, even cutters.

Agree with you. Anytime we have a broad conus trough with cold highs sliding by to our north, we're in the game. I actually prefer broad troughs except for big dogs. Opens the door for a wide range of vectors that can hit us. Big steep troughs/ridges only provide a 1 lane highway. I like 270 + the commuter lanes pointed at my yard

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