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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

We get SO close (on a few different occasions) to seeing a big snowstorm in our area….. details to be ironed out later of course…. but man, if we can manage a few 3-6/4-8” type events over the next 2-3 weeks, that certainly wouldn’t be a fail either. We’d see the major terminals over climo and many of us would be well above where we should be by end of January.

Of course, getting a big KU would satisfy the weenie craving during such a tasty pattern, but you won’t find me complaining if we manage to pile up between 1-2 feet of snow over the next few weeks with multiple advisory / low end warning snowfalls one after the other. Especially with the advertised cold, as snowpack would largely remain in tact throughout the period.
 

Lots of fun tracking ahead of us! Can’t wait to do it with you knuckleheads. 

January's already been a lot of fun - even with some close misses - this year has been great compared to recent years.  I've had an inch or more of snow on the ground here in Loudoun pretty much continuously for over two weeks.  That's a good winter in my book.

And I would always rather see two feet of snow in Tucker County, where I can actually ski it.  Keep dumping on the mountains with a solid base of a few inches on the coastal plain, and I call that a success.

 

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Just now, yoda said:

Cold rain at 156 and 162... boom indeed

It's close.  Sort of similar to the GFS, but with a stronger southern stream low.  Move that northern stream a little faster so it can drag the boundary back southward and that's a nice hit.  

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It's close.  Sort of similar to the GFS, but with a stronger southern stream low.  Move that northern stream a little faster so it can drag the boundary back southward and that's a nice hit.  

But check h5.  Its a strong s/w in the South at 138-144... then it washes out as it goes along

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Maybe so... but that ridge out west is out in the Eastern Pacific Ocean which is causing a trough out west, which usually isn't good news for us

If I'm not mistaken, the Euro has a block and a low on its way to the 50/50 region, which would help keep it from cutting.

Not that it matters, of course, since it's the Euro all the way at 240.

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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Maybe so... but that ridge out west is out in the Eastern Pacific Ocean which is causing a trough out west, which usually isn't good news for us

ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

 

Not sure I agree. The right look in the east can turn that look into good storms here, even cutters.

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12 minutes ago, yoda said:

Maybe so... but that ridge out west is out in the Eastern Pacific Ocean which is causing a trough out west, which usually isn't good news for us

ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

 

Have to look at everything in totality. Without the blocked up flow in the northeast it would be a problem. Also the pac ridge is far enough east that with the trough still east of Hawaii and the blocked flow it’s probably gonna slide east. No way to know though. If it’s too slow and the flow relaxes it could cut. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That was my read on it also. 

Yoda had originally posted without an image, but I think you can see how it might play out with that look at 240.

Man...it'll be shocking (annoying) if we go through the next two weeks without something hitting for 5"+ in the general area.

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