January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[RIC_WX]

8 hours ago, mattskiva said:

Why would you buy at the lake, vs in Davis or Canaan which gets 2x as much snow out of every storm, has actual vertical relief, and is easily accessible from the Byrd Superhighway?

Of course, land there isn't any cheaper right now, and it's also a 2 year wait minimum to build. So instead of sitting in my slopeside house, I get to ski by my slopeside empty lot and stay in the Canaan Valley Lodge. First world problems, I suppose. 20" of new snow made for pretty good 1200 vert glade skiing today.

 

Nothing against Davis.  Deep Creek is like Leesburg west.  We have quite the extended social network here.  My kiddos find WISP plenty intimidating and neither the wife nor I are really capable to ski.  We are from RIC after all, no one in our xennial cohort grew up skiing.

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, frd said:

Can you clarify the period of interest that you mentioned,  do you feel that the potential exists for a moderate event for the coastal plain during the time of the Jan. 25th to the 30th?  

If you look at both the gefs and eps and loop the h5 anomalies you can clearly see an stj wave ejected east on the 25th. At the same time the NS is diving into the high plains much further west than the waves before.   That setup then repeats a few days later and everything pinwheels around.  That look seems way more likely to allow amplification along the east coast without needing perfect timing and phasing.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

Nothing against Davis.  Deep Creek is like Leesburg west.  We have quite the extended social network here.  My kiddos find WISP plenty intimidating and neither the wife nor I are really capable to ski.  We are from RIC after all, no one in our xennial cohort grew up skiing.

That’s exactly why I wouldn’t want to be there. I’m not much on transferring city life to the mountains.

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Winter may be over guys. Look at this trending

When the +PNA breaks, it might get very warm.

Thanks for the update 

[StormchaserChuck!]

This is pretty brutal in the Pacific, again the only other time I saw sustained +400dm -PNA as an ensemble mean 12-15 days out was before December. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, StormchaserChuck! said:

This is pretty brutal in the Pacific, again the only other time I saw sustained +400dm -PNA as an ensemble mean 13-15 days out was before December. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html 

So, a KU event the first week of February as the pattern flips.  Got it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you look at both the gefs and eps and loop the h5 anomalies you can clearly see an stj wave ejected east on the 25th. At the same time the NS is diving into the high plains much further west than the waves before.   That setup then repeats a few days later and everything pinwheels around.  That look seems way more likely to allow amplification along the east coast without needing perfect timing and phasing.  

Huh...wondering if that's the kind of setup that, if it indeed verifies, could produces a long tracker...? (I guess we'll find out over the weekend, lol)

[StormchaserChuck!]

5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

So, a KU event the first week of February as the pattern flips.  Got it. 

this is a pretty strong -NAO, we might have something coming out of it short term. We don't historically get big storms rising out of +PNA to -PNA. >582dm in the N. Atlantic

[Anyweather]

11 hours ago, IronTy said:

Oh yeah, that bad?  I'm having a hard time getting the realtor for the land to even call me back   business must be too good   I just got pricing back for plans on our "modest" 1700sqft log cabin we plan on building and it was $900K.  Not including land.  Gimme a break, we really need a stock market crash and soon so these builders come back down to reality.  They're drunk on power. Rising interest rates should help us all pretty soon.   

Whoa?! Forgive me for butting in but how is that cost justified. Access issues? Distance from suppliers? That’s $530/ sq ft.!

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

GFS has that ridiculous 959mb inland bomb around the same timeframe in yesterday's 18z run. Definitely a timeframe to watch. I think PSU mentioned the other day that around that time as another window of interest.

From 10 days ago I liked the 20-25 but edited that when it became obvious the pattern was retrograding slower than expected. Some idea just a few days delayed. everything’s been a slow progression this year. It all went kinda as expected just delayed. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

From 10 days ago I liked the 20-25 but edited that when it became obvious the pattern was retrograding slower than expected. Some idea just a few days delayed. everything’s been a slow progression this year. It all went kinda as expected just delayed. 

What’s your thoughts for February? -pna and southeast ridge? Perhaps the first half of February isn’t bad because of the slow progression of everything this winter (as you stated above)

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

What’s your thoughts for February? -pna and southeast ridge? Perhaps the first half of February isn’t bad because of the slow progression of everything this winter (as you stated above)

I think it’s apparent eventually the pac is going to revert to the Nina base state and the -pna will return. Don’t worry if you forget, Chuck will remind you 17 times by the end of the day. 
 

But that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re done for snow chances the rest of winter.  Some factors…
1) the pac pattern advertised is a little east of December’s. The trough in the western pac is east of Japan and the ridge axis is east of the Aleutians. That’s not as awful.  
2) the pac ridge is extremely poleward.  That will at least dump cold into N Amer. If it was flat with a +AO that’s pac puke game over time. 
3) there is cold around to to start also.  It’s possible weaker waves could eject and with lucky timing we could get chances even in an otherwise warmer pattern  

4) it looks like Feb starts with a +AO NAO and so we likely content with the SE ridge.  But if we do get another round of blocking in Feb and March that pac look can be mitigated.  Blocking overcame that exact pac look to lead to snowstorms in Feb 2006 and March 2018.  But that part of the equation is unknown  

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Huh...wondering if that's the kind of setup that, if it indeed verifies, could produces a long tracker...? (I guess we'll find out over the weekend, lol)

Eff a long tracker. I want a 24 hour tracker that produces a foot

[Allsnow]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think it’s apparent eventually the pac is going to revert to the Nina base state and the -pna will return. Don’t worry if you forget, Chuck will remind you 17 times by the end of the day. 
 

But that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re done for snow chances the rest of winter.  Some factors…
1) the pac pattern advertised is a little east of December’s. The trough in the western pac is east of Japan and the ridge axis is east of the Aleutians. That’s not as awful.  
2) the pac ridge is extremely poleward.  That will at least dump cold into N Amer. If it was flat with a +AO that’s pac puke game over time. 
3) there is cold around to to start also.  It’s possible weaker waves could eject and with lucky timing we could get chances even in an otherwise warmer pattern  

4) it looks like Feb starts with a +AO NAO and so we likely content with the SE ridge.  But if we do get another round of blocking in Feb and March that pac look can be mitigated.  Blocking overcame that exact pac look to lead to snowstorms in Feb 2006 and March 2018.  But that part of the equation is unknown  

 

 

Thank you. I agree, as long as we don’t get a historic-pna (like December) we should have overrunning chances.  Obviously, this idea is based that we don’t fade away that poleward ridge 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Eff a long tracker. I want a 24 hour tracker that produces a foot

Hey that works too! (Was Commutagedon kinda like that?)

[StormchaserChuck!]

588dm now off the West coast, largest of all model runs so far. 

 

We are beating 2015's recent record

acclimate

[stormtracker]

35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Eff a long tracker. I want a 24 hour tracker that produces a foot

Well, here I am.

[stormtracker]

Seriously, what's on tap next. 

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Seriously, what's on tap next. 

Nothing right now... but @psuhoffman was saying watch late next week I believe

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, here I am.

Just woke up from your dream?. 

[LP08]

Maybe this one won't dig to mexico.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Maybe this one won't dig to mexico.

And nothing comes of it lol

[frd]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Maybe this one won't dig to mexico.

The @psuhoffmanstorm. Hey I said it  Hopefully performs like the @CAPE storm, dropping 6.25 inches here.

[stormtracker]

With all that shit the GFS has at H5, no way it gets all of that right this far out.   I don't see how we get out of this favorable period empty handed.  But then again, we are who we thought we are.  We talkin' 'bout practice.  Practice.   That's two sports references. <bows>

[WxMan1]

Yes, we definitely cannot sleep on that potential next Fri-Sat, 28-29th. 

[mattie g]

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

And nothing comes of it lol

But there's a vort just behind it that looks to take advantage of the path that first vort laid down. The second (and some other pieces of energy flying around) goes negative in a pretty decent spot. Looks like it's not far from going boom as the northern stream energy swings in from behind.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But there's a vort just behind it that looks to take advantage of the path that first vort laid down. The second (and some other pieces of energy flying around) goes negative in a pretty decent spot. Looks like it's not far from going boom as the northern stream energy swings in from behind.

There is a storm but its OTS after clipping SNE 29-30

[yoda]

Now, one would think that the LR GFS at 282 would be good in the next few frames for something big...

[psuhoffman]

Gfs was sooooooooooo sooooooooooooo soooooooooooooooooooooooo close to pulling off a monster around the same time I’m very interested in. Just had a sloppy phase between 3 pieces. But it was close. Ask me how close.