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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Do you think we have the option of a solid event if the northern stream can keep digging regardless of the southern stream energy. In that regard, Euro and some of the 12z's gave us hope (ICON, NAM come to mind)

What @MillvilleWx just said, but yes, could still have a nice northern stream-only event.  Warning level for much of LWX is still possible IMO if the northern stream gets stronger. 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This Euro outcome makes more sense given the broader longwave pattern.  The mean ridge is on/off the west coast.  That's not Position A for a MECS.  The earlier MECS outcomes were predicated on perfect phasing/wave spacing.  A very tough thread the needle.  With so many waves in the flow, it makes more sense that you have a single wave driving the bus to create a storm rather than complicated wave interactions.  So, with that in mind, this Euro outcome is quite nice still.  I think @WinterWxLuvr mentioned earlier that the outcome now depends on the northern stream shortwave and that looks right to me given the 12z suite.  Deeper and we get a Euro like outcome.  Flatter/progressive and it's the GFS.  

Didn't the ridge in the west look sharper on this 12z run?  It did to me so if that happens and the southern wave stays back, would it give the NS time to dig?

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27 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I just mean with SE VA getting slammed and we have to watch from here like window shopping

I can only hope. Usually that’s me with 33° rain watching the entire rest of VA get snow. May be finally one I won’t have to travel for, but there’s still plenty of time to be heartbroken.

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4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I have no time to have fun here today until late but please remember this has never been and currently isn't a big storm setup. It can happen with a vigorous ULL pass but the macro pieces all point towards a quick hitting 3-6/4-8 for whomever is in the middle of the lucky stripe. Neg tilt or closed off shortwave is the boom scenario. Otherwise a power progressive wave/stripe is highly favored imho only 

I agree but our problem here is the wave spacing looks off for a slider to work. We kinda need the more amplified phase idea or it’s likely a miss south. 
 

Just looking at the longwave pattern progression I think our best chance is around the 26-28. Not saying something can’t work before that but the trough axis seems a bit east of ideal. I like where the trough is amplifying around then. 

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39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree but our problem here is the wave spacing looks off for a slider to work. We kinda need the more amplified phase idea or it’s likely a miss south. 
 

Just looking at the longwave pattern progression I think our best chance is around the 26-28. Not saying something can’t work before that but the trough axis seems a bit east of ideal. I like where the trough is amplifying around then. 

Knickerbocker centennial? :D (again, minus the tragedy!)

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah sorry I was projecting a bit...(seeing snowmaps feels bad for the psyche--but perhaps the ones 7 days out are worse than Day 10-12, lol)

Hey, at least there's a storm there! :D

Yeah that storm at the end of the month is fantasy land. Who knows how that will end up?

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