Rhino16 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 It still looks good. I’ll take half of what’s shown if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, MDsnowPRO said: Wouldn’t we rather it be Suppressed now versus a cutter? Seems like in the final 24 hours before onset, these things seem weird to start to move west. Or does the current high placement not allow that? If that trend benefits DC you can guarantee it ain’t happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 The euro brought in a much deeper ns feature around hour 78 up in North Dakota which wasn’t there at 0z that I don’t think helped our cause either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This Euro outcome makes more sense given the broader longwave pattern. The mean ridge is on/off the west coast. That's not Position A for a MECS. The earlier MECS outcomes were predicated on perfect phasing/wave spacing. A very tough thread the needle. With so many waves in the flow, it makes more sense that you have a single wave driving the bus to create a storm rather than complicated wave interactions. So, with that in mind, this Euro outcome is quite nice still. I think @WinterWxLuvr mentioned earlier that the outcome now depends on the northern stream shortwave and that looks right to me given the 12z suite. Deeper and we get a Euro like outcome. Flatter/progressive and it's the GFS. Do you think we have the option of a solid event if the northern stream can keep digging regardless of the southern stream energy. In that regard, Euro and some of the 12z's gave us hope (ICON, NAM come to mind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, IronTy said: Kuchera will have better ground truth this time around. One thing that I don't think a lot of people are factoring with this setup is the ratios. This is going to be a cold smoke when it comes in. The thermals are absolutely amazing for these parts. You get any ascent in the picture at all, and you'll pile up snow nicely. Banding factors be damned as well. There's a lot that can bring a solid advisory criteria snow a fair chunk of the sub-forum and warning criteria most likely confined to areas south of Rt 50. Add the snow from previous day and it's a solid few day period. KU potential is low as long as the southern wave stays disconnected, but a sharp northern vort can absolutely deliver here. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I've been putting it off and trying not to accept this new reality, but I'm officially on board with the GFS as our new king. Euro on its knees begging for the GFS to be merciful with him lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This run makes me think we are about to witness the unmentionable storm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: DT is having a brutal winter of forecasting so far. Embarrassing really. DT is god awful....the early Jan storm he said the GFS was full of Sh*t It ended up being nearly spot on......this past weekend he barked non stop about the big winter storm that didn't happen for much of Virginia, now barking on this one only to watch it slowly slip away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: This run makes me think we are about to witness the unmentionable storm again I don't think they're the same thing...besides wasn't that one a Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Do you think we have the option of a solid event if the northern stream can keep digging regardless of the southern stream energy. In that regard, Euro and some of the 12z's gave us hope (ICON, NAM come to mind) This is what you and I get for moving north. A winter of fringed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I don't think they're the same thing...besides wasn't that one a Miller B? I just mean with SE VA getting slammed and we have to watch from here like window shopping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Do you think we have the option of a solid event if the northern stream can keep digging regardless of the southern stream energy. In that regard, Euro and some of the 12z's gave us hope (ICON, NAM come to mind) What @MillvilleWx just said, but yes, could still have a nice northern stream-only event. Warning level for much of LWX is still possible IMO if the northern stream gets stronger. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This Euro outcome makes more sense given the broader longwave pattern. The mean ridge is on/off the west coast. That's not Position A for a MECS. The earlier MECS outcomes were predicated on perfect phasing/wave spacing. A very tough thread the needle. With so many waves in the flow, it makes more sense that you have a single wave driving the bus to create a storm rather than complicated wave interactions. So, with that in mind, this Euro outcome is quite nice still. I think @WinterWxLuvr mentioned earlier that the outcome now depends on the northern stream shortwave and that looks right to me given the 12z suite. Deeper and we get a Euro like outcome. Flatter/progressive and it's the GFS. Didn't the ridge in the west look sharper on this 12z run? It did to me so if that happens and the southern wave stays back, would it give the NS time to dig? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: This is what you and I get for moving north. A winter of fringed... Yeah it's quite a coincidence for sure lol. Thank God I chose to take this past event in Deep Creek. However, we all know nothing is the same as our backyards taking the big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, H2O said: Didn't the ridge in the west look sharper on this 12z run? It did to me so if that happens and the southern wave stays back, would it give the NS time to dig? Don't like that idea...Miller B all over again? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: DT is having a brutal winter of forecasting so far. Embarrassing really. He lives and dies by the ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ok, move the storm talk here. This thread is back to medium/long range threats. 1 2 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The storm on the 12z GFS at 252 is right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBeach Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I just mean with SE VA getting slammed and we have to watch from here like window shopping I can only hope. Usually that’s me with 33° rain watching the entire rest of VA get snow. May be finally one I won’t have to travel for, but there’s still plenty of time to be heartbroken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Don’t look at Canadian until you leave work… it isn’t safe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 50 minutes ago, IronTy said: Pretty good for southern Maryland. But it can't happen because Climo or something. I give to you, SVFECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: I give to you, SVFECS. More like FECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, IronTy said: Pretty good for southern Maryland. But it can't happen because Climo or something. Half of the snow on the northern edge falls on Wed-Thurs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 hours ago, Fozz said: The next few weeks are looking truly extraordinary for Garrett county and the Canaan area. While I'm sad to be leaving today, there is so much more opportunity coming up. Still blows my mind that Timberline averages 180". Different world out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I have no time to have fun here today until late but please remember this has never been and currently isn't a big storm setup. It can happen with a vigorous ULL pass but the macro pieces all point towards a quick hitting 3-6/4-8 for whomever is in the middle of the lucky stripe. Neg tilt or closed off shortwave is the boom scenario. Otherwise a power progressive wave/stripe is highly favored imho only I agree but our problem here is the wave spacing looks off for a slider to work. We kinda need the more amplified phase idea or it’s likely a miss south. Just looking at the longwave pattern progression I think our best chance is around the 26-28. Not saying something can’t work before that but the trough axis seems a bit east of ideal. I like where the trough is amplifying around then. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree but our problem here is the wave spacing looks off for a slider to work. We kinda need the more amplified phase idea or it’s likely a miss south. Just looking at the longwave pattern progression I think our best chance is around the 26-28. Not saying something can’t work before that but the trough axis seems a bit east of ideal. I like where the trough is amplifying around then. Knickerbocker centennial? (again, minus the tragedy!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said: This run makes me think we are about to witness the unmentionable storm again Which one? There are like 20 at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Which one? There are like 20 at this point Maybe December 9, 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 WB 18 GFS….maybe we will get another round of luck in the western suburbs in February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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